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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 59 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 68 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 99 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
624 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Discussion... 


Updated for 00z aviation discussion 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 322 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012/ 


Discussion... 


Surface high pressure will continue to settle over the middle south 
tonight. This will keep clear skies...light winds...and good 
radiational cooling conditions over the area as dewpoints remain 
seasonably low in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This should allow 
for another refreshingly cool night over much of the area with low 
temperatures expected near 50 in sheltered regions near the 
Tennessee River...to near 60 degrees in downtown Memphis. 


Surface high pressure will slide east to a position along the 
southeastern United States for the end of the week as upper level 
ridging builds from the west. Dry and noticeably warmer conditions 
can be expected each day through Friday. A return flow of 
southerly surface winds will begin on Thursday with increasing 
humidity levels to accompany the increasing temperatures. High 
temperatures on Thursday will rebound back into the lower 90s in 
most areas with middle 90s expected on Friday. 


The upper ridge will strengthen and become centered over the middle 
south for next weekend. Middle level 500mb heights rise to 593 dm by 
Saturday afternoon with 925mb temperatures between 26c and 29c 
during the afternoon hours of both Saturday and Sunday. This 
should correspond to high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s 
areawide through the weekend. Increased humidity levels should 
help to push heat index values to between 100 and 105 degrees 
during peak heating through the weekend. Strong subsidence below 
the ridge should prevent thunderstorm development. 


The ridge slides slightly east by Monday but still expecting 
another dry and rather hot day...although maybe a few degrees 
cooler than the weekend. High temperatures should still rise into 
the lower and middle 90s in most areas. There may be an isolated 
shower or thunderstorm over eastern sections by Monday afternoon 
as tropical moisture associated with a tropical disturbance over 
the northeast Gulf of Mexico advances into eastern sections of the 
forecast area. For now...will keep chances for storms out of the 
forecast...but this will be something to watch in the extended 
forecast period. 


The upper ridge breaks down further by the middle of next week as 
a potent northern stream shortwave ejects from the northern plains 
into the Midwest. This should bring increased chances for showers 
and thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures for the end of 
the extended forecast period. 


Jlh 


&& 


Aviation... 
00z taf cycle 


VFR conditions will persist through the entire forecast period. 
Winds will be mainly from the north this evening at 1o knots or 
less becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will be mainly 
south at around 5 knots by late Wednesday morning. 


Ars 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 58 85 66 91 / 0 0 0 10 
mkl 50 83 58 89 / 0 0 0 10 
jbr 53 85 61 91 / 0 0 0 10 
tup 52 84 60 90 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$