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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
400 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
low pressure and unsettled conditions will persist across the area 
through Thursday. High pressure builds into the area Friday into the 
Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
convection has been widespread thus far this afternoon across southeast Virginia/NE 
NC following a differential heating boundary and approaching short wave trough 
over eastern NC initiating showers and storms in a moist airmass. 
This will continue through the Erly evening hours...with less of a chance for 
rain (50% pops) over interior portions of the forecast area...and just 30% over 
the lower Eastern Shore (light onshore flow will stabilize the 
atm). Any thunderstorms that develop will be slow moving due to weak 
steering flow aloft...so heavy rainfall is possible as precipitable waters  
approach 1.5". Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to 
continue into the evening...ending in most areas after midnight. 
Lows in the lower to middle 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/... 
unsettled conds will continue through at least Thursday with an upper-level 
trough cutting off from the mean flow along the eastern Seaboard. 
This will lead to periodic chances for showers and storms as moist 
S/SW flow continues. For Wednesday...surface trough will be situated over 
western part of the forecast area where highest probability of precipitation (60%) were 
placed...40-50% elsewhere. Temperatures climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s 
under a mostly cloudy sky. Rain may linger into Wednesday night...with the 
best chance again over western areas. For Thursday...still a chance for rain 
with moist S/SW flow continuing...but will limit probability of precipitation at 30-40% as 
middle-level short wave pulls NE of the area. Dryer conds for Friday as hi pressure 
slowly builds in from the west. High temperatures generally in the lower to 
middle 80s Thursday and Friday. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
going with a combination of the 12z GFS/European model (ecmwf) for the extended 
period. Hi pressure ridge aloft will build over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys Friday night 
through sun...then ewrd across the area and off the middle Atlantic CST Monday through 
Tuesday. Will maintain generally a dry forecast through Monday night...but will have 
to watch out for mesoscale convective system activity coming over the top of the ridge from Sat 
afternoon into Monday. Othrwise...a surface trough or cold front approaching from the 
west-northwest by late Tuesday could trigger isolated or scattered precipitation Tuesday aftn/ngt. Very 
warm temperatures expected across the region through the period. Min temperatures will 
range from the middle 60s to near 70...while maximum temperatures will mainly range 
from the middle 80s to lower 90s. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/... 
showers and thunderstorms have developed over the area as of 18z 
Tuesday. Taf sites can expect heavy rain...winds gusting to 35kt and 
frequent lightning during any storm. Expect the storms to die down 
after sunset due to the loss of instability. With the added 
moisture from any rainfall to an already moist 
environment...IFR/LIFR fog may impact taf sites Wednesday morning. The 
fog should clear quickly due to a SW wind that develops. Expect 
another round of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. 


A slow moving upper system will result in continued unsettled 
weather Wednesday afternoon and Thursday...with the potential for flight 
restrictions in patchy fog each morning and in scattered convection each 
afternoon. Clearing finally builds in from the west for Friday and into 
the upcoming Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Marine... 
will continue with Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas through late tonight on the coastal 
waters due to weak low pressure off the middle Atlantic CST causing southeast swells and 
periods of 9 to 10 seconds. Then...generally S winds 15 knots or less 
will occur from Wednesday through sun...as surface hi pressure sets up well off the middle 
Atlantic/southeast CST. Waves will be 1 to 2 feet and seas will be 2 to 4 feet. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am EDT 
Wednesday for anz650-652-654-656-658. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mas 
near term...mas 
short term...mas 
long term...tmg 
aviation...mam/dap 
marine...tmg