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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 64 °
• Fog

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC 
822 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
an upper level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms 
to the local area through Thursday. A warming and drying trend 
will follow Friday through early next week as an upper ridge 
intensifies over the Carolinas. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
as of 8:00 PM Tuesday...convection has subsided substantially from 
just an hour or so ago. Remaining area of concern is a convective 
complex approaching Williamsburg and Georgetown counties from the 
west. System appears to have some broad rotation at the middle levels 
but is moving to the right...which may keep it our of our area. 


After this activity ends...expect a convective lull early this 
evening. A second vorticity lobe rotating up from the Savannah 
River valley will probably be accompanied by scattered showers and 
storms again later this evening. GFS MOS appears too dry as it was 
today...so will trend up toward the wetter NAM numbers for 
tonight. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/... 
as of 316 PM Tuesday...both Wednesday and Thursday will be impacted by a 
cold pool aloft passing over the forecast area...although by 
Thursday this feature will be exiting to the north and temperatures 
aloft will begin warming...especially late in the day Thursday. 


Potentially sharp lapse rates Wednesday afternoon into evening 
warrants mention of hail and gusty winds despite only "see text" 
wording at this time from Storm Prediction Center. 500mb temperatures should dip to -15 to 
-16 degree celsius overhead near peak heating. 


Mentionable pop values extend into Thursday but warming aloft 
may inhibit convection compared to Wednesday. Greater coverage and 
thunderstorm intensity remains favored Wednesday afternoon as the core of the 
cool pool track overhead. 


Maximum temperatures similar Wednesday and Thursday...mainly middle and upper 80s across 
most inland locations...and lower 80s along the immediate coast. 
Primarily middle 60s for lows each morning given onshore flow 
and projected dewpoints. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
as of 316 PM Tuesday...few changes to the long term forecast this 
afternoon with convection taking precedence. Main theme remains 
hot however as medium range guidance continues to build the 500mb 
ridge across the southeast for the weekend continuing into Monday. 
The pattern does show indications of breaking down Tuesday as 
closed low in the west gets kicked out and lowers heights from 
north to south. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
as of 00z...expect VFR through the early overnight hours with areas 
of brief MVFR in heavy downpours in lingering convection. Later 
overnight...patchy dense fog could create MVFR/potential IFR into 
the early morning hours...especially at the inland sites. VFR will 
prevail by morning...with potential for brief MVFR/IFR in afternoon 
vcsh/vcts. 


Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of the area... 
gradually dissipating into the late overnight hours. Current satellite 
imagery depicts cloud cover spread across the entire area...which 
will persist overnight. Given latest rainfall...and periods of light 
winds anticipated at times...could see fog development late 
overnight into the early morning hours. Expect MVFR/possibly IFR at 
the inland sites...with MVFR along the coast. For now have kept 
restrictions area-wide at MVFR for current forecast. After 
daybreak...VFR will prevail with south-southwest winds at or below 10 kts 
with middle to high level clouds. Showers and thunderstorms will be 
possible again on Wednesday...especially into the early to late 
afternoon hours. For now have kept in vcsh given lowered confidence 
on timing of events. Cannot rule out periods of MVFR in heavier 
downpours with short-lived gusts up to 20 kts or greater. 


Extended outlook...scattered showers/MVFR...with isolated 
thunderstorms/tempo IFR possible through the extended period. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term /through tonight/... 
as of 8 PM Tuesday...latest observation show a generally light southerly 
flow of around 10 kts with 3 to 4 feet seas. Southerly winds will 
continue overnight with an increase to 15-20 kts possible away 
from shore later this evening. A cold front moving east across the 
central Carolinas should stall before reaching the beaches 
tonight...but the tightened pressure gradient near this system 
will help enhance wind speeds tonight...with a solid 15 knots 
expected by late evening. Gusts to 20 knots are possible as well. 
Seas consist of about 2 feet of locally generated wind waves plus 
an additional 1-2 feet from a 10 second southeast swell generated 
by former Tropical Storm Alberto over the past day or two. 


Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/... 
as of 316 PM Tuesday...the biggest threat Wednesday and Thursday will be 
isolated to scattered thunderstorms that could track across the waters 
intact. This will introduce cloud to water lightning strikes and 
locally rough conditions. Outside of thunderstorms...mainly southerly 
winds 15 knots or less Wednesday and Thursday...with a few higher afternoon 
gusts enhanced by the sea breeze circulation. 3-4 foot seas Wednesday 
and Thursday comprised of southeast waves 2-3 feet in 8-10 second intervals 
and S waves around 2 feet in 5-6 second wave intervals. 


Long term /Friday through Saturday/... 
as of 316 PM Tuesday...northeast winds for the first couple of days 
veering to the east for late in the weekend as high pressure 
resides to the west and low pressure to the east. Lower confidence 
in speeds as the lows to the east are wild cards. Overall expect 
speeds to remain below flag criteria however. Expect Summer like 
seas of 2-4 feet. 


&& 


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Near term...rek/tra 
short term...mjc 
long term...shk 
aviation...sgl 
marine...mjc/rek/tra/shk