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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
740 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak area of low pressure surface and aloft will continue over 
North Carolina through Wednesday...then slowly shift east and 
dissipate Thursday. High pressure will build over the area Friday 
and persist through early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
much of the diurnally forced strong convection is waning over the 
forecast area eary this evening. Most of the remaining shower/isolated 
thunderstorm activity is over the northern half of the area so will 
maintain likely probability of precipitation there through the evening although coverage is already 
starting to decrease. Isolated/scattered shower/thunderstorm along remnant outflows 
still possible over southern areas this evening but coverage will be 
much less than that over northern areas. 


With upper low approaching from west-SW overnight...expect continued 
destabilization aloft...and threat of scattered activity 
persisting/developing through the overnight for all areas. Some fog 
and stratus likely toward morning as well...but coverage more 
limited than past few nights due to more convective debris 
cloudiness. Min temperatures middle-upper 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through 6 PM Wednesday/... 
as of 300 PM Tuesday...upper low moving across area with weak 
thermal troffing inland expected to result in good coverage of 
shower/thunderstorms from late morning on...and raised probability of precipitation to likely for 
inland sections. Hail threat will increase with colder temperatures 
aloft. MOS blend for temperatures...highs in low-middle 80s similar to this 
afternoon. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... 
as of 330 PM Tuesday...the upper low begins to lift northeast Wednesday 
night and Thursday as the jet stream strengthens across the plains and 
Great Lakes region. Ongoing convection will dissipate Wednesday evening 
with loss of heating but could still see isolated storms overnight 
with center of upper low overhead. An upper trough remains across 
the East Coast Thursday and with a moist unstable airmass in place 
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon but with 
weakening upper level support coverage expected to be less than 
Wednesday. A strong upper ridge over the south will build toward the 
region Friday and Sat. Subsidence expected to suppress convection 
however could see an isolated storm develop along the 
seabreeze...mainly Friday. The upper ridge builds northward into the middle 
Atlantic early next week with an upper low moving westward over the fla 
peninsula and expect subsidence to keep mainly dry conditions 
early next week. Temperatures will be near seasonable norms Thursday with 
highs in the lower to middle 80s inland to upper 70s to low 80s along 
the coast and lows in the 60s. Thicknesses increase during the 
latter half of this week and early next week as ridging builds 
aloft and expect highs in the M/u80s inland to M/u70s coast. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
short term /through 18z Wednesday/... 
VFR will generally prevail into tonight outside of heavier 
showers/isolated storms. Widely scattered convection is expected to 
persist overnight with a threat for IFR conditions again in fog 
and stratus late. Another bout of scattered showers/storms expected to 
affect area again late Wednesday morning into afternoon. 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as of 330 PM Tuesday...scattered mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected 
Wednesday and Thursday an upper low moves into the mid-Atlantic. The low 
lifts north Thursday with strong upper ridge building over the southeast...likely 
suppressing convection through the weekend. Patchy fog will be 
possible each morning. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through tonight/... 
slight tightening of pressure gradient will lead to S-SW winds increasing 
to near 15 knots tonight into Wednesday...mainly for southern and central 
waters. Southeast swell expected to continue decreasing...with seas 
diminishing below 6 feet over northern and central waters this 
evening...but persisting 3-5 feet into Wednesday. 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as of 330 PM Tuesday...high pressure will be centered off the southeast coast Wednesday 
night and Thursday bringing S/southwesterly winds at or below 15 across the waters. Low 
pressure develops near the Bahamas Thursday night and Friday with the high 
pressure sliding northward allowing winds to become more Ely below 15 knots Friday 
through the weekend. Seas expected to be 2 to 4 feet through the 
long term for the most part but could build to 3-5 feet southern waters 
(as currently forecast by wavewatch) Sat and sun depending on the 
strength of the low off the Bahamas. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz095- 
103-104. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jme 
near term...jbm/btc 
short term...jme 
long term...sk/cqd 
aviation...jbm/btc/sk 
marine...jbm/btc/sk