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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 
943 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak area of low pressure surface and aloft will continue over 
North Carolina through Wednesday...then slowly shift east and 
dissipate Thursday. High pressure will build over the area Friday 
and persist through early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
only a few light showers remain over the forecast area this evening 
but as upper low pivots across the southeast states...expect increasing 
precipitation coverage overnight. Have held probability of precipitation at good chance 
for now as there are some mixed signals in the mesoscale short 
range model guidance. 


Expect that the severe weather threat will be minimal overnight 
given the unfavorable diurnal cycle/stable boundary layer...but 
expect heavy rain/localized flooding will remain a threat through 
early Wednesday morning given precipitable waters  1.5 inches. Expect some patchy fog 
and mild/muggy conditions overnight with min temperatures middle-upper 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through 6 PM Wednesday/... 
as of 300 PM Tuesday...upper low moving across area with weak 
thermal troffing inland expected to result in good coverage of 
shower/thunderstorms from late morning on...and raised probability of precipitation to likely for 
inland sections. Hail threat will increase with colder temperatures 
aloft. MOS blend for temperatures...highs in low-middle 80s similar to this 
afternoon. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... 
as of 330 PM Tuesday...the upper low begins to lift northeast Wednesday 
night and Thursday as the jet stream strengthens across the plains and 
Great Lakes region. Ongoing convection will dissipate Wednesday evening 
with loss of heating but could still see isolated storms overnight 
with center of upper low overhead. An upper trough remains across 
the East Coast Thursday and with a moist unstable airmass in place 
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon but with 
weakening upper level support coverage expected to be less than 
Wednesday. A strong upper ridge over the south will build toward the 
region Friday and Sat. Subsidence expected to suppress convection 
however could see an isolated storm develop along the 
seabreeze...mainly Friday. The upper ridge builds northward into the middle 
Atlantic early next week with an upper low moving westward over the fla 
peninsula and expect subsidence to keep mainly dry conditions 
early next week. Temperatures will be near seasonable norms Thursday with 
highs in the lower to middle 80s inland to upper 70s to low 80s along 
the coast and lows in the 60s. Thicknesses increase during the 
latter half of this week and early next week as ridging builds 
aloft and expect highs in the M/u80s inland to M/u70s coast. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
short term /through 00z Thursday/... 
VFR will prevail through midnight then increasing chances for sub- 
VFR conditions as precipitation coverage increases ovrnight. 
Outside any precipitation...fog/stratus will also become more prominent 
with a moist ground and light winds with IFR conditions likely 
for several hours prior to sunrise Wednesday morning. Fog/stratus gradually 
lifts out and scatters with a return to mainly VFR conditions 
expected by late morning/midday. Another bout of scattered showers/storms 
(and associated tempo sub-vfr) expected to affect area again Wednesday afternoon. 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as of 330 PM Tuesday...scattered mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected 
Wednesday and Thursday an upper low moves into the mid-Atlantic. The low 
lifts north Thursday with strong upper ridge building over the southeast...likely 
suppressing convection through the weekend. Patchy fog will be 
possible each morning. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term /through Wednesday/... 
tightening of pressure gradient will lead to S-SW winds increasing to 
near 15 knots tonight into Wednesday...mainly for southern and central waters. 
Southeast swell will only slowly decrease...with seas persisting 3-5 feet 
into Wednesday. 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
as of 330 PM Tuesday...high pressure will be centered off the southeast coast Wednesday 
night and Thursday bringing S/southwesterly winds at or below 15 across the waters. Low 
pressure develops near the Bahamas Thursday night and Friday with the high 
pressure sliding northward allowing winds to become more Ely below 15 knots Friday 
through the weekend. Seas expected to be 2 to 4 feet through the 
long term for the most part but could build to 3-5 feet southern waters 
(as currently forecast by wavewatch) Sat and sun depending on the 
strength of the low off the Bahamas. 


&& 


Mhx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jbm 
near term...btc 
short term...jbm 
long term...sk 
aviation...btc/sk 
marine...btc/sk