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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 63 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 63 °
• Fog

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Fog

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC 
827 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
a trough of low pressure will move slowly across our region through 
Wednesday keeping the weather unsettled. High pressure will build in 
from the Ohio Valley region this weekend bringing hotter and drier 
conditions. 


&& 


Near term /through Wednesday night/... 
as of 215 PM Tuesday... 


A surface low pressure system has set up over western North Carolina 
this afternoon with a baggy 500 mb trough aloft. A vorticity maximum 
associated with this system will swing through the area this evening 
and be the main driving force associated with convection. As 
expected convection is becoming more widespread as daytime heating 
continues. Currently one boundary set up over the I-95 corridor and 
a second over the southern Piedmont where a mesoscale-low has shown up in 
the surface observation. One Severe Thunderstorm Warning has already 
been issued in this vicinity. With the main threat being quarter 
size hail. Not expecting widespread severe activity this afternoon 
but certainly a few warnings will be possible with the main threat 
from hail and the secondary threat being winds. Low level lapse 
rates are strong...especially in the east where we saw convection 
first start to Blossom. The middle-level lapse rates are not nearly as 
impressive though only about 5 to 5.5 degrees. With mixed layer cape 
1000-1500 j/kg...the instability will certainly be there but 
effective shear is non-existent at this time. The greatest threat 
for heavy rain will be in the northeast as precipitable water values here are over 
1.5 inches with 1-1.5 inches elsewhere in the County Warning Area. Straight and 
short hodographs at the current time become longer and more curved 
later this evening (after 0z) as the vorticity maximum gets closer to the 
area but the timing will be off as heating will be gone for the day. 
Highs this afternoon will reach the lower to middle 80s with higher 
temperatures in the east and the lowest temperatures in The Triad. Winds at 
most stations will become variable as outflow boundaries disturb an 
already weak southerly flow. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will 
prevail across the County Warning Area. Overnight tonight expect convection to wind 
down during the period from 0-3z. There is a very minimal risk for 
some fog or low stratus from 9-12z but there is low confidence in 
this occurring at this time. Lows overnight will be in the middle 
60s. 


For Wednesday the upper level low and associated vorticity maximum 
will continue to track across central North Carolina from southwest 
to northeast. Once again shower and thunderstorm activity will 
increase with daytime heating. Dynamic tropopause maps show a 
shortwave disturbance centered at the 400 mb level crossing through 
eastern North Carolina between 18z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Cross 
sections of Omega show the best lifting between 15 and 18z 
Wednesday. A similar setup to Tuesday as far as instability and 
shear go with cape approaching 1000-1500 j/kg during peak heating 
and about 10 knots of bulk shear. Coverage should be better in the 
east vs the west due to the track of the low but shear could be a 
little bit better in the southwest making that area more susceptible 
to severe storms...despite less coverage. Therefore we could again 
see a few severe thunderstorm warnings Wednesday afternoon as well. 
Winds will be 5-10 knots out of the southeast Wednesday afternoon. 
Temperatures will be a degree or two less across the board than on 
Tuesday afternoon...yielding a bit weaker low level lapse rates 
although they still will be plenty sufficient to initiate 
convection. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon low 80s north to 
middle 80s south. Lows Thursday morning will be in the lower 60s with 
the coolest temperatures in The Triad. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday/... 
as of 125 PM Tuesday... 


The only changes to the forecast for Thursday and Friday will be to 
decrease pop Friday and raise temperatures even more than previously 
forecast. Models are in excellent agreement in building middle and 
upper level heights quickly over the Ohio Valley... New England... 
central Appalachians and Middle-Atlantic States this period. In fact... 
the middle levels are forecast to warm which will introduce middle level 
capping to suppress convective development beginning Friday. 


We will continue to mention 20-30 pop for afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms Thursday with the gradual dissipation of the current 
upper trough and residual low level boundary. Expect increasing 
sunshine Thursday and Friday and warming temperatures. Highs Thursday 
should reach the lower to middle 80s... warming into the middle to upper 
80s Friday. Lows will be in the middle 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
as of 125 PM Tuesday... 


High confidence forecast for dry and hotter conditions. Models build 
the core of the upper ridge over the Ohio Valley into the central 
Appalachians this weekend into early next week. We will raise highs 
into the lower 90s except near 90 for the northwest Piedmont each day. 


The break down of the upper ridge is expected by middle to late next 
week. However... Tuesday still looks hot and likely dry with highs 
again in the lower 90s except upper 80s northwest. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
as of 815 PM Tuesday... 


Showers and thunderstorms are decreasing in intensity and coverage 
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. However... a few 
strong storms may still affect kgso/kint over the next few hours. 
Thus... have included at tempo group for thunderstorms for kgso and 
kint and MVFR/IFR conditions associated with the showers/storms 
through 03z. Elsewhere... expect generally dry conditions this 
evening. A few showers and/or storms cannot be ruled out 
overnight.... however confidence is too low to include in the tafs 
after this evening. There will however be a brief chance for some 
IFR/LIFR ceilings from 09-12z at all stations but confidence is very 
low in this at this time... except at krwi... which received 
substantial rain today. Thus... at krwi... expect we will see visbys 
ranging from MVFR to LIFR... with LIFR ceilings possible until 
sunrise (expect sub VFR conditions to develop late this evening or 
into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday at krwi). Elsewhere... along 
with the low confidence threat of low ceilings some MVFR 
visibilities are also possible during the same time frame (09-12z). 
For Wednesday expect winds to remain light out of the south. There 
will once again be a chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday 
afternoon but have left them out of the tafs at this time. 


Isolated to scattered showers and storms will again be possible on 
Thursday... with sub VFR conditions possible with any shower or 
storm. In addition pre-dawn sub VFR conditions will be possible both 
Thursday and Friday mornings. High pressure will move in for the end 
of the week and remain overhead into early next week. Aviation 
conditions should remain largely VFR during this time. 


&& 


Rah watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Badgett 
near term...Ellis 
short term...Badgett 
long term...Badgett 
aviation...bsd/Ellis