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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 54 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Hastings NE 
826 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Aviation...00z kgri taf. Wind sill continue to be breezy out of 
the south southeast. Wind will decrease and turn east northeast by 
late afternoon Wednesday with an approaching cold front. 
Thunderstorm activity should hold off until after the end of the 
forecast. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued issued by National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE/ 


Short term...tonight through Friday. 


Going forecast appears on track...and only minor adjustments made. 
Large scale flow per vw imagery showing significant upper level 
low spinning off the British Columbia coast with push of Pacific 
moisture quickly spreading eastward across the northern plains. 
At the surface...large unorganized area of low pressure extending from 
the western Dakotas to eastern Montana then into can with attendant thermal 
boundary extending east along the U.S./Can border. 


Have decided to decided to discontinue Wind Advisory at zone forecast product 
issuance as models are indicating this will not be an issue rest 
of this afternoon or evening. 


For tonight...surface low pressure is prognosticated to scoot across the 
U.S./Can border and bring aforemention thermal boundary southward as a cold 
front. MUCAPES pushing 1500 j/kg...but mucin/lid strength indice 
values suggest cap too strong to consider any probability of precipitation. 


Models sweep boundary through the Dakotas by 12z Wednesday then gets hung up over 
the County Warning Area in response to flow aloft evolving to a SW-NE orientation. 
This bndyr will be the focus for thunderstorm development toward late 
afternoon/early evening Wednesday. Daytime heating allows instability to ramp 
up within warm sector...MUCAPES 2000-2500 j/kg...but convection 
will hold off until late afternoon when cap breaks...and expect initiation 
along edge of increasing 0-3km lapse rates in vicinity of the northwest County Warning Area. 
Composite parameters suggesting severe storms are probable...initally 
with some supercells then linear in nature later Wednesday night. Dry on 
Thursday then another round of storms possible Thursday night when 
the hung boundary becomes oriented along the Nebraska/Kansas border where 
low/middle level ageostrophic lift most prevalent. Will opt to 
continue small probability of precipitation on Friday as the models advertise the boundary 
remaining in vicinity of the County Warning Area. 


Dee 


Long term...Friday night through Tuesday. 


Early in the period...a ridge will remain firmly in place across the 
middle Mississippi River valley with hot temperatures in place across 
our area. A warm front will lift northward through the region 
Friday night with southerly winds on Saturday. Boosted temperatures into 
the upper 80s to lower 90s on Saturday...just a bit above guidance. 
In general...think things will be well capped Saturday...but kept 
very slight chances in the northern County warning forecast area with the warm front in the 
vicinity. 


A front begins to move off the High Plains Saturday night. Overall 
feeling is that the area should remain mostly dry Saturday night... 
with breezy southerly winds continuing and a mild night with lows in 
the upper 60s to near 70. The front moves into the area through the 
day Sunday...although there is some question on the timing based on 
latest GFS and European model (ecmwf). Have 30 to 50 percent probability of precipitation Sunday through 
Sunday night...with another hot day though before the front arrives 
with highs again in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 


Believe that the cold front should be mostly east of the area by 
daybreak Monday with cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 
80s. The Memorial Day Holiday actually appears to be the nicest day 
of the three day weekend. 


With zonal flow in place across the plains...believe another weak 
impulse could begin to bring isolated thunderstorms back to the area 
by Tuesday. 


Dewald 


&& 


Gid watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for nez039>041-046>048- 
060>062-072>075-082>085. 


Kansas...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ksz005-006-017-018. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Dee 
long term...Dewald 
aviation...heinlein