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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
542 PM MDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Short term...(this afternoon through tonight) 
issued at 1238 PM MDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


17z water vapor imagery indicated short wave ridge axis was 
shifting to the east across the Missouri Valley with short wave 
trough moving to the east along the Montana/Wyoming border. 12z 
radiosonde observations indicated deep layer of nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates 
have expanded to the east from 24 hours ago...with lbf observing 
very steep lapse rates between 800 mb and h65...with high lapse rates 
extending up to h45. Mixing out morning inversion only requires 
temperatures in the middle 80s and reduces cinh to around 50 j/kg. At the 
surface...dry line was located just west of the County Warning Area...and was located 
roughly along a kako to klic line. 


Rest of the afternoon-tonight...already seeing some towering cumulus 
forming along the dry line and with instability increasing to the 
east as surface dew points increase...expect at least a few storms to develop 
and drift to the east across a portion of the County Warning Area this evening. 
Given the rather shallow near surface moisture profile...only 
expecting isolated coverage through 3z...when stabilization will 
likely bring an end to thunder chances. 


Pressure gradient will tighten through the evening hours allowing 
for winds to increase near sunrise...possibly briefly to around 
advisory levels...and remain breezy through the evening before 
cold front begins to move across the area during the early morning 
hours. Expect the winds to hold temperatures up through much of the 
night...but am a little concerned that lull in winds before front 
will allow temperatures to drop a bit more than expected across northern 
County Warning Area. 


Long term...(wednesday through tuesday) 
issued at 221 PM MDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Wednesday-Wednesday night...cold front stalls over our County Warning Area Wednesday 
with breezy winds and cooler temperatures north of the front...and 
much warmer temperatures south. Guidance has come into better 
agreement on position of the front near the I-70 corridor...with 
high temperatures in the 90s south of the front...upper 90s across the 
extreme southern part of the County Warning Area. North of the front temperatures will 
generally be in the low to middle 80s...with upper 70s near Yuma. Post 
frontal precipitation looks to arrive over the northwest part of the County Warning Area by Wednesday 
afternoon...with coverage increasing during the evening/overnight as 
shortwave passes just north of the area. Guidance has come into good 
agreement on measurable precipitation across the northern tier of the County Warning Area 
late Wednesday evening...diminishing after midnight. I bumped probability of precipitation up 
across the north to 70/80...and kept orientation of previous 
forecast. 


Thursday-Thursday night...shower/thunderstorm activity should taper 
off during the morning across the northeast as first shortwave pulls 
off to the east...with a lull in activity expected during the early 
afternoon period. A second shortwave trough will approach the region 
from the west with isolated/scattered thunderstorms possibly in the 
west by late Thursday afternoon...with coverage spreading north and 
east of the I-70 corridor Thursday night. Temperatures will cooler 
on Thursday as front pushes just south of the County Warning Area. While highs will 
be closer to seasonal levels over much of the County Warning Area...above normal 
temperatures in the low 80s are still expected across the south. 


Friday-Sunday night...a warm front will lift north over the County Warning Area and 
stall near the NE/Kansas state line Friday and Friday night...which 
could act as a focus for additional shower/thunderstorms across the 
north...though best chances look to be north of our County Warning Area. By Saturday 
strong warm air advection will overspread the County Warning Area as this warm front lifts into 
central Nebraska. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible 
Saturday afternoon as instability builds east of a dry line near the 
Kansas/Colorado state line...with coverage increasing Saturday night as a 
shortwave trough moves north of the region. There is more spread 
in timing of shortwaves on Sunday/Sunday night...however both 
GFS/European model (ecmwf) has shown some thunderstorm potential as large scale 
western Continental U.S. Trough shifts north and east. I limited probability of precipitation to 
20/30 range during these periods...with coverage still a question 
over our area. With dynamics associated with large scale trough 
spreading east...there is a threat for severe weather if 
thunderstorms were to develop...with strong winds likely the main 
threat based on hodographs. 


Monday-Tuesday...guidance is in pretty good agreement on large scale 
subsidence in place over our County Warning Area Monday...so forecast was kept dry. 
There is significant differences on timing/position of a cold front 
Sunday night/Monday which could affect our temperatures during these 
later periods. GFS remains the cold outlier. Consensus blend was 
used which kept temperatures above seasonal norms...matching the European model (ecmwf) 
with has shown better run-run consistency. Shortwave trough looks to 
arrive Tuesday...with shower/thunderstorm chances returning to our 
area. There are differences in the strength/evolution of this 
feature...however overall model trend is still there...so 20/30 probability of precipitation 
were left in place Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) 
issued at 506 PM MDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


VFR conditions forecast for the 0z tafs. Latest surface analysis 
places a surface trough/dry line over eastern Colorado. East of 
this boundary winds are gusty...but will gradually decline during 
the night as mixing ceases and the cold front approaches. However 
ahead of the front a strong low level jet develops...which may 
create low level wind shear at both sites overnight. Models have the 
frontal passage for kgld around 9z and 12z for kmck. Winds will 
decline further as the front moves through then strengthen 
Wednesday morning as the low level jet moves in behind the front 
and the winds mix down to the ground. Through the morning the 
stronger winds above the surface dissipate/move east...allowing 
the winds to decline through the day for kgld but remain gusty for 
kmck. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
issued at 1238 PM MDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Dry line slowly moving into eastern Colorado this afternoon with 
dew points falling into the low 30s/upper 20s behind it. Given 
temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s...humidities will fall to 5 to 
15 percent for several hours. Winds will briefly diminish as 
dry line moves over the area...but will shift to the west at 15 to 
20 miles per hour later this afternoon. In addition to the low 
humidities...isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop this 
afternoon and evening. With high lcl's and fairly weak 
instability...potential exists for dry lighting strikes and gusty 
and erratic winds through the evening hours. With marginal 
critical fire weather conditions already occurring...think the 
additional threat of dry lightning warrants red flag warning. 


&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...red flag warning until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for 
ksz001-013. 


Colorado...red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for coz252>254. 


NE...red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for nez079. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...jrm 
long term...Dr 
aviation...jtl 
fire weather...jrm