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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 50 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service North Platte NE 
358 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Discussion... 


Forecast challenge is probability of precipitation this forecast cycle as the upper ridge 
is forecast to build over the eastern Pacific and long wave 
troughing sends a series of disturbances east through the plains 
in the near term. Models are trending toward a similar solution 
by the Memorial Holiday that will keep a chance for storms in the 
forecast through Sunday. The forecast is a blend of the GFS/European model (ecmwf) 
through Thursday. 


A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM CDT this evening for 
much of the north central as a weak cold front moves southeast. 
Warm middle level temperatures will tend to inhibit storm development 
across the west this evening...although an isolated thunderstorm 
near the dryline across the west is still possible. Any storm that 
forms will be high based to produce more wind than rain. Storms 
that do form tonight and move east will tap into a better moisture 
source while developing into the north central as a cold front drops 
southeast overnight. Low temperatures tonight will drop mainly into the 
40s. 


Wednesday morning a weak cold front will extend from the eastern 
Dakotas into southwest. A low redevelops on the boundary over 
southwest Nebraska that shifts the focus back to the west for moisture 
return and a better chance for storm development Wednesday 
night...as a series of embedded impulses move east for storm 
development. Temperatures begin to cool Wednesday with readings 
into the middle 60s northwest to upper 70s southeast. As the system 
exits northeast Wednesday a cool down into Thursday. High pressure 
builds east Thursday while the next complex low pressure system 
organizes across the west and a warm front lifts north Friday 
keeping a chance for thunderstorms going until the system exits 
northeast Monday. 


Aviation... 


Windy southerly conditions will continue into tonight as a cold 
front pushes into the area. There is potential for low level wind 
shear tonight as the low level jet picks up. Soundings from the 
rapid refresh showing 60 to 65 knots winds from the south around 2k 
feet above the ground. Didn/T add any low level wind shear in the taf at this point 
due to questions on how strong surface winds will stay but if they 
drop off...best window for low level wind shear looks to be 01z to 07z. 


As for thunderstorms...better dynamics for organized convection are 
up into the Dakotas tonight. But convection has started to develop 
along the dry-line in far western Nebraska this afternoon. 
So...could see some isolated storms over southern Nebraska and 
isolated to scattered storms over northern Nebraska this evening. 
Not high confidence on the coverage though so just put 
thunderstorms in the vicinity at kvtn and left klbf dry for now. 


The cold front will come across the area late tonight with winds 
switching to the north to northwest and staying breezy into the 
afternoon. 


&& 


Fire weather... 


Relative humidity in the 5 to 15 percent range is currently being 
observed over the Nebraska Panhandle and far western Nebraska this 
afternoon...with southerly winds gusting to around 30 miles per hour. These 
extreme fire weather conditions will diminish as the cold front 
pushes through the region overnight. Although winds may be breezy 
over the next few days...temperatures will cool with highs in the 
60s and 70s expected for the remainder of the work week. This will 
keep relative humidity from dropping to critical levels. 


&& 


Hydrology... 


River statement issued on the North Platte river at North Platte 
as current gage reading is 5.5 feet or 0.5 feet below the flood 
stage of 6.0 feet. The forecast is for the stage to remain steady 
near 5.5 feet however will be monitored as a frontal system 
develops across the plains into the Memorial Day weekend. 


&& 


Lbf watches/warnings/advisories...red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this 
evening for nez204-210. 


Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for 
nez005>010-025>029-037-038-094. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/extended...Keck 
aviation/fire weather...Brooks