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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 100 °
• Low: 64 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 99 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
305 PM MDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Discussion... 
currently...weak ridge aloft departing to the east as fast jet 
flow moves into the intermountain region en Route to a week long 
residence in New Mexico. Surface trough from western Nebraska to 
east central New Mexico supporting some west to southwest gusts 
this afternoon. Convection has started already over the 
northeast...with some expansion across the eastern plains through 
the afternoon. Some locally wetting rains are possible...but most 
storms will offer reduced amounts of moisture as they move through. 


Models...in generally good agreement on pattern evolution through 
the weekend and into the first half of the following work week. 
Plausible consensus brings jet flow to The Four Corners and 
northern New Mexico tonight with trough base rounding out over the 
Grand Canyon and placing plenty of momentum aloft over the state 
for midweek. Energetic closed low taking shape over the Queen 
Charlotte islands of western Canada will take the fast trip to 
Monterey Bay in central California by Friday...backing and 
strengthening winds aloft over New Mexico to turbulent southwest to 
wrap up the work week. Feature will eject and lift into the 
northern plains over the weekend...but change the broad trough 
orientation over New Mexico little with turbulent winds 
continuing. Shearing lift to the northeast will help ease speeds 
by late Sunday with New Mexico remaining in a broad but lighter 
southwest flow Monday and Tuesday over top of ridge core centered 
up on Cabo San Lucas in southern Baja California California. 


For tonight...west to northwest winds aloft increasing speed 
through the night...with deepening surface trough over the Texas 
Panhandle. Surface wind speeds will remain breezy 
overnight...especially over the summits and upper slopes of the 
chuskas and Continental Divide...and over the eastern foothills 
and adjacent plains of the central mountains and sangre Delaware cristo 
range. Lingering state line thunderstorms over the eastern plains 
will taper off late this evening and end after midnight. Overnight 
temperatures continuing very mild for late may. 


For Wednesday...surface low deepening rapidly into the middle 980s mb 
over the Oklahoma Panhandle with tight surface pressure gradient 
working against even tighter ridge over the Baja California California 
peninsula. Turbulent jet flow roaring through the base of the 
trough aloft will run squarely over New Mexico to impart 
additional momentum to surface wind speeds. Forecasts have wind 
speeds bumping against warning thresholds for Wednesday 
afternoon...with strongest winds over the northern and western 
high country...and over summits in the Central Mountain chain and 
sangre Delaware cristos. Will keep high wind watch going as written. Low 
humidities and winds will set up a widespread day of danger for 
fire weather...and will retain red flag warnings and high wind 
watch for this afternoons package. Near record heat will add to 
the excitement for much of the eastern half of the state...as 
maximum temperatures work well into the double digits above late 
may normals...and top the century mark over the eastern plains 
along and south of Interstate 40. 


For Thursday...surface low shifting to northeast New Mexico as 
west to southwest winds aloft blast through the state. Conditions 
ripe for another windy day...with strongest winds over the west. 
Speeds will easily exceed red flag criteria...and will expand 
Thursday Fire Weather Watch to take in the northern mountains and 
northwest plateau this round. Speeds coming in slightly below what 
we have in for Wednesday...suggesting widespread advisory criteria 
exceedance this far in advance. Falling heights will help support 
some leveling off of temperature trends...with most spots well 
above normal...and continued double digit departures over the 
eastern plains. 


For Friday...closed low aloft moving from Monterey Bay to the 
Sacramento River Delta country in central California...and backing 
flow over New Mexico solidly to the southwest. New surface low 
forming in response over the intermountain region will support 
another windy southwest blast across New Mexico to wind up the 
work week. Strongest winds once again over the west...with speeds 
a notch reduced from speeds seen on Thursday. Expecting another 
day of fire weather issues with fairly broad coverage. An 
isolated state line thunderstorm in vicinity of companion surface 
low over the Texas Panhandle not out of the question...but 
moisture will be in short supply with any that might develop. 
Temperature trends level...up to 10 degrees above normal over the 
east. 


Outlook...weekend through Monday...trough base digging into the 
Southern California deserts Saturday will shear across the central 
rockies on Sunday to put state in trailing southwest flow in 
broader but weaker trough pattern to begin the work week. Saturday 
breezes over the northeast may set up another day of fire weather 
problems...with wind speeds easing another notch on Sunday to 
reduce red flag coverage. State line and eastern plains 
thunderstorm coverage a good bet all three afternoons...with 
increasing moisture tug out of West Texas supporting wetter storms 
and greater coverage through Monday afternoon. Level temperature 
trends through the early work week. 


Shy 


&& 


Aviation... 
very isolated high based convection with localized strong 
outflows still possible east of a line from Raton to Ruidoso through 
03 or 04z this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions through the next 24 
hours. But strong westerly winds to become quite widespread across north 
and central nm Wednesday between middle morning and the noon hour. Sustained 
surface wind speeds to reach 25 to 35 kts with some gusts between 40 and 
50 kts in the afternoon. Areas of blowing dust will also likely be kicked 
up...reducing visibilities at times below 2 miles with the stronger 
gusts. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 09z. 43 


&& 


Fire weather... 


..prolonged period of critical fire weather conditions this week 
across western and central New Mexico...with extremely critical 
conditions possible west central...northwest and north central 
Wednesday... 


Dry with strong to very strong daytime winds area wide through at 
least Friday. Any chance for wetting rains...only isolated showers and 
storms...should be limited to the easternmost plains counties 
before midnight tonight. 


Area covered by the red flag warning for today will not be changed 
through 8 PM MDT expiration as at least some sites in most fire weather 
zones have reached red flag criteria. Still isolated 1 to 3 hour 
critical conditions in the Southwest Mountains through about 6 PM. 


Very poor relative humidity recoveries tonight...in some western and central nm 
areas less than 20 percent at maximum...will set stage for widespread 
critical conditions Wednesday. Little change noted with latest forecast model 
runs and extremely critical conditions expected over portions of 
roughly northwest third of nm. Critical conditions could linger over 
much of the region through Wednesday evening...with some spotty coverage 
into the early morning hours Thursday as poor relative humidity recoveries remain 
widespread...especially near and south of Interstate 40 corridor. 


A slight increase in relative humidity possible especially near the Colorado border 
Thursday...but winds looking a little more likely to erode much of that 
out in the afternoon as daytime temperatures remain above average. 
While Haines values of 6 will be confined mainly to central 
nm...minimum relative humidity values in the single digits and strong westerly 
winds are enough to continue existing Fire Weather Watch for late 
Thursday morning through sunset Thursday evening and add the remaining north 
central and northwest zones 101 and 102. 


Even Friday critical conditions could be widespread over the 
northeast and east Central Plains...as well as the western mountains 
Friday afternoon. At this time will not hoist as a watch there as it is 
3 days out and confidence not quite as high as for Thursday. Relative humidity 
recoveries Thursday night and Friday night will continue to be poor 
over most of the region...although some improvement may be found 
east of the Pecos Valley Friday night. For the weekend...at least 
spotty critical conditions remain a concern...mainly far west and 
along and a little ways east of central mountains ventilation through 
Friday will be very good to excellent just about all areas. 


43 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 54 87 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 
Dulce........................... 36 79 37 75 / 0 0 0 5 
Cuba............................ 40 83 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 50 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 
El Morro........................ 44 79 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 45 84 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 
Quemado......................... 48 83 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 52 88 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 39 73 39 69 / 0 5 0 5 
Los Alamos...................... 51 84 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 
Pecos........................... 52 81 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 
Cerro/Questa.................... 44 78 43 73 / 0 5 0 0 
Red River....................... 43 70 42 65 / 0 5 0 5 
Angel Fire...................... 41 74 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 45 81 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 
Mora............................ 49 80 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 49 89 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 53 85 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 53 87 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 61 89 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 63 91 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 58 93 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 92 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Lunas....................... 58 94 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 
Rio Rancho...................... 60 91 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 60 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 82 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 
Tijeras......................... 55 87 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 89 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 
Clines Corners.................. 54 83 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 
Gran Quivira.................... 55 88 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 58 92 56 85 / 5 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 58 83 55 76 / 5 0 0 0 
Capulin......................... 53 86 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 50 90 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 
Springer........................ 51 89 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 54 87 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 59 96 53 88 / 5 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 57 92 54 85 / 5 0 0 0 
Conchas......................... 60 96 58 92 / 5 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 61 97 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 62 101 61 94 / 10 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 61 96 60 92 / 10 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 61 97 60 94 / 10 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 62 100 60 97 / 5 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 62 102 63 99 / 5 0 0 0 
Picacho......................... 61 95 60 90 / 5 0 0 0 
Elk............................. 58 91 58 85 / 5 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
red flag warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following 
zones...nmz101-103-105-107. 


Red flag warning from 10 am to 11 PM MDT Wednesday for the 
following zones...nmz101>109. 


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening 
for the following zones...nmz101>109. 


High wind watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening 
for the following zones...nmz501>507-510>515-519-521. 


&& 


$$ 


Shy/43