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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 40 °
• Low: 27 °
• Snow Showers

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 38 °
• Low: 25 °
• Chance of Snow

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 38 °
• Low: 25 °
• Chance of Snow

• Thursday
• 
• High: 43 °
• Low: 32 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 47 °
• Low: 32 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
200 am PST Monday Feb 13 2012 


Synopsis...a strong winter storm will bring widespread snow to 
Nevada today through Tuesday morning with the heaviest snow 
falling south of Interstate 80. Snow will diminish Tuesday 
afternoon with a brief break of dry weather expected Tuesday 
night. Yet another storm system will arrive Wednesday producing 
scattered snow showers and colder temperatures. 


&& 


Short term...today through Wednesday. Intense Pacific storm 
entering northern California on schedule this morning. Incoming 
cyclone is already quite wound up and accompanied by an unstable 
airmass as shown by cold air cumulus on infrared satellite imagery off 
the California coast. Tonight's 00z model runs remain consistent 
with the storm's track and evolution through Tuesday with no real 
surprises. As such...inherited Winter Storm Warning looks good to 
go with no changes. Significant travel difficulties will develop 
today across southern Lander...southern Eureka...Nye and White 
Pine counties. Winter storm conditions are expected to persist 
across central Nevada through tonight. 


Strong closed low near Eureka California this morning will track 
to just west of Reno at midday as the Tonopah surface low develops 
over western Nye County. At 4 PM...500 mb storm center will be SW 
of Tonopah. The surface low will deepen in response most likely in 
soutern Nye County...just south of the County Warning Area. This slightly more SW 
track will have the effect of confining much of the snowfall to 
the Winter Storm Warning area through Tuesday. Forcing will be 
much reduced along and north of Interstate 80...with much less 
snow expected across much of Humboldt/Elko counties. For this 
package...actually lowered snow coverage significantly for 
northern Nevada through this event. Expect little accumulation or 
impact north of Interstate 80. The one exception to this may be 
Humboldt County this morning as diffluence briefly encourages 
snowfall production before heading southeast into central Nevada by 
midday. Indeed...klrx shows radar echoes increasing between 
Gerlach and Winnemucca with kwmc ASOS ceilings lowering. Expect 
light snow to accumulate 1-2 inches in portions of Humboldt County 
this morning and we will be monitoring this for any impacts. 


This afternoon...heavy snow will Blossom in coverage across 
central Nevada. 00z GFS continues to forecast the strongest 
forcing for ascent roughly along and south of U.S. Highway 
50...and this is where heavy snow is expected. Snow chances were 
increased to 100%. Will continue to forecast widespread valley 
accumulations of 5-9 inches in the Winter Storm Warning with 9-18 
inches in the higher terrain. All models forecast an unstable 
atmosphere over the Winter Storm Warning zones this afternoon with 
lifted indices falling to near/below zero and steep lapse rates. 
This adds an additional factor to consider with thundersnow locally 
enhancing snowfall rates and amounts. 


Expecting a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts just south of 
Interstate 80. Today's day shift will be tasked with monitoring 
the northern extent of the heaviest snow and the need for any 
short term impact-based advisories north of the Winter Storm 
Warning. Currently do not see the need for such advisories as most 
valley locations near Interstate 80 are expecting generally less 
than one inch accumulation. This will be monitored closely 
especially after sunset as Road temperatures cool. 


Tuesday...storm system departs quickly as it is kicked along by 
another strong storm approaching from the north. Reduced snow 
chances and clouds Tuesday with all areas expecting a brief break 
of dry weather Tuesday evening. 


Wednesday...after days of disagreement...all model guidance has 
finally converged on a common solution of dropping the next strong 
closed low due south into the Great Basin. This storm will be much 
colder and appears to be dynamically charged with strong forcing. 
With the colder air and inland trajectory moisture will be 
limited. Introduced snow showers across much of Nevada Wednesday 
favoring the western zones...with a first estimate of one inch or 
less for most valleys. Turner 




Long term...Wednesday night through next Sunday. The models are 
in general agreement through Saturday however the pattern has 
changed since 24 hours ago from an extended trough solution to 
predominantly ridging between a Wednesday night low and a low moving 
through next weekend. Thus there is enough concern to not make many 
changes to the going forecast. 


Wednesday night. To begin the period...a trough will be exiting 
south and there is agreement on this feature. Split the overnight 
period up into 6 hour increments to show some showers over northern 
Nevada prior to midnight...then some lingering showers south of 
Highway 50 through 12z. 


Thursday through Friday. Kept the forecast area dry as a couple 
shortwave ridges pass through with any overrunning precipitation 
staying north of the Nevada border. A cool northerly flow will keep 
daytime temperatures from reaching the 50s widespread although the 
lack of snow cover in the north will certainly battle that notion. 


Friday night. Placed some minimal probability of precipitation over far western Humboldt 
County to match up with neighboring offices however if any showers 
develop...should be closer to 12z Saturday. 


Saturday through Sunday. This is too tricky to call right now so left 
probability of precipitation nearly the same as previous forecast. A strong low pressure 
system will be moving into the lkn Arena Saturday and may or may not 
bring some significant precipitation to the Great Basin next 
weekend. At 12z Saturday...the European model (ecmwf) model shows the low center 
about 250 miles off the Washington coast while the GFS shows the 
center about 150 miles off the Oregon coast. The European model (ecmwf) moves the low 
inland over Washington by 00z Sunday then over northern Nevada by 
12z Sunday...a very wet solution. The GFS tracks the low along the 
California coast through 00z Monday...a very dry solution. Not 
helping much...the Gem model splits the difference of the European model (ecmwf) and 
GFS models. Have to see more agreement to make changes. 


&& 


Aviation...a storm system will be moving through northern and 
central Nevada today bringing significant snow. The brunt of the 
snowfall will be south of Interstate 80. Kwmc will experience 
intermittent MVFR conditions this morning. Keko will likely be VFR 
ceilings and visible all day. Ktph will see deteriorating ceilings and visible with 
possible IFR conditions early this afternoon. Kely may touch on IFR 
conditions by late afternoon. 


&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning from 10 am this morning to 10 am PST 
Tuesday for White Pine County. 


Winter Weather Advisory from 10 am this morning to 10 am PST 
Tuesday for Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range. 


Winter Storm Warning from 7 am this morning to 7 am PST Tuesday 
for northern Nye County...southern Lander County and southern 
Eureka County. 


&& 


$$ 


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