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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 57 °
• Fog

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
853 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak cold front will very slowly cross the region through 
tomorrow evening. This will allow for showers and some afternoon 
thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Thursday...the front will push 
to the east...allowing for a quieter day...with perhaps a few 
showers popping up in the afternoon..and maybe a rumble of 
thunder. A front will move across the region late Friday through 
Saturday morning...allowing for additional showers and 
thunderstorms Friday afternoon. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
updated at 850 PM...diffuse frontal boundary slowly dropping southeastward across 
the bgm County Warning Area...and the line of small scattered-broken -shra from Oneida County 
into Tioga County appears to delineate this feature...with light nearly flow 
to the north and nearly calm winds to the south. This feature will 
continue to slide slowly southeastward tonight...and expect isolated-scattered -shra to continue 
to decreases overnight. Current forecast appears to be in good shape with only 
minor tweeks for the evening update. Previous below... 


Updated at 640 PM...scattered -shra and isolated thunderstorms and rain will begin to wane 
as we work into the evening hours. Forecast in good shape with only minor 
tweeks to the near term grids otherwise no changes. Previous below... 


The expected front has all but stalled to the west of the County Warning Area. 
Showers and thunderstorms have fired along the front, but have 
mostly remained in the buf cwa, with the exception of some showers 
that have moved into Steuben and Yates counties. This is also the 
area that has received the most sunshine. Other area have seen some 
pop up showers, but thunderstorms have remained out of the County Warning Area so 
far. On the other side of the cwa, a low pressure system off the 
coast of Long Island, has continued to advect moisture into the 
eastern zones. So far, radar estimates have been light and even 
river gages are showing very little response to the rain. This 
activity still has the potential to spread across the County Warning Area this 
afternoon, but should begin to diminish later this evening. 


With the abundant surface moisture, there is a good possibility of fog 
tonight. Some areas could develop dense fog, other areas may just 
see very low stratus. So, have kept fog in the forecast for tonight. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/... 
for tomorrow, the front is expected to have moved into the cwa, 
thus transferring the activity to the eastern and southern zones. 
With still moisture available, and possibly more breaks in the 
clouds, there is a chance for thunderstorms to develop. However, 
continued lack of sheer will keep them minimal. This will more 
likely lead to additional development of moderate to heavy showers 
that will be slow moving. However, still not expecting anything 
more then very localized, minor flooding. 


Thursday, there will be a lull in activity, even though there will 
be some remaining moisture and instability. Models do try to build 
in a temporary ridge from the east. There is also ridging in the 
upper levels as well. So, Thursday would currently look like the 
least favorable day for showers and thunderstorms, but can not 
rule them out. 


By Friday, another front will make its way across towards the County Warning Area. 
We will first see a warm front early Friday, then the front looks 
to occlude over the County Warning Area. There will be plenty of moisture and 
lift, together with instability to trigger showers and 
thunderstorms. It is further out in the forecast, so will not make 
a call at this time to the strength of any storms that do develop. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
very uncertain forecast through the extended time frame once again as 
long term models continue to struggle with strength of developing 
ridge across the southeastern US. As was the case yesterday...the 
GFS remains the warmest solution which shows heights approaching 
590 dm by late sun/early Monday. Under this scenario...high temperatures 
would reach well into the upper 80s to near 90 across much of the 
region by early next week. Meanwhile the cooler European model (ecmwf) solution 
continues to flip flop back and forth...with the current solution 
suggesting a gradual suppression of the building ridge as an upper 
low drops southeast through central Quebec early next week. From 
this Vantage Point...and considering the inability of long term 
models to home in on any one particular solution...have decided to 
make very few changes to the extended forecast until models begin to 
show some continuity with the main synoptic features of interest. 
Contrary to yesterday/S runs...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are now 
suggesting a lingering frontal boundary hanging around at the 
start of the period which would keep the potential for scattered 
showers and storms in the forecast through the upcoming weekend. 
In general...we continue to favor the slightly warmer GFS solution 
as it has shown the most run-to-rum consistency in recent days. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
scattered showers and embedded thundertorms will taper off over 
the next few hours. A moist lower atmosphere will be left behind, 
with breaks in the clouds allowing for enough nocturnal cooling to 
push tdd values to near zero. 


A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings/visibilities will develop between 
4z and 7z, and become more persistent between 7z and 12z. Areas 
such as Elm and ith may be most prone due to earlier rainfall. 


There is a slight chance of additional showers and thunderstorms 
Wednesday afternoon. 


Outlook... 
Wednesday...MVFR conds possible... in scattered shra/tsra. 


Thursday through sun...generally VFR...xcpt MVFR in scattered afternoon shra/tsra. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sli 
near term... 
short term...sli 
long term...cmg 
aviation...djp