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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 66 °
• Fog

• Sunday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New York New York 
1055 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
a stationary front remains stalled to our west tonight through 
Wednesday. Strengthening high pressure over Nova Scotia will 
remain nearly stationary Thursday and Friday...while low pressure 
lifts north of the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. The low 
passes well to the north on Saturday sending a weakening cold 
front across the northeast. The front then stalls close to the 
tri-state area through early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
weak surface features will remain across the forecast area tonight 
with plenty of moisture to work with. An approaching low-middle level 
shortwave is bringing the westernmost zones isolated to scattered 
showers to the area. Farther east...very weak lift will result in 
areas of drizzle. There is still concern for the potential of dense 
fog forming for some locations at some point by late as winds should 
be very light to calm while a moist airmass remains in place. 


For lows...went close to a blend of 12z NAM/mav MOS guidance...but 
adjusted upwards a few degrees across eastern Long Island and a few 
other places with the thinking that clouds will prevent temperatures from 
falling too much from where they are now in those locations...and 
dry air advection at the surface is not anticipated. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/... 
a cold front will remain nearly stationary just west...or over the 
western portion of the County Warning Area through Wednesday. 


Any morning fog will dissipate by middle morning and by afternoon 
clouds will give way to some breaks...allowing for some sunshine. 
With weak instability across the area...and the frontal boundary so 
close to the County Warning Area...some showers and possibly an isolated 
thunderstorm to develop. Any precipitation activity should be mainly 
diurnal in nature with the best chances across the western portions 
of the County Warning Area. 


Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to climb into the middle and 
upper 70s...with lower 70s across coastal sections. If more sunshine 
occurs than expected...then temperatures could approach 80 across 
inland sections. 


Probability of precipitation gradually diminish Wednesday night with mostly cloudy skies. 
Depending on how much low level moisture remains across the 
region...fog may re-develop overnight. Lows fall into the upper 50s 
and lower 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
a weakening upper low lifts north along the middle Atlantic and 
southern New England coasts Thursday into Friday...and is then replaced 
by warming heights aloft through the upcoming weekend. A broad 
area of low pressure will remain west of the MS River Valley 
during this time. This will allow for warm...muggy conditions to 
develop across the east this weekend and into early next week as 
an anomalous upper ridge builds NE from the Gulf Coast states into 
New England. 


There are some differences in the global models...specifically 
with the magnitude of the polar vortex over eastern Canada late 
in the period. This will mean the difference between a boundary 
remaining stalled across the area sun into Tuesday...or lifting to the 
north as another upper trough passes to the north of the Great 
Lakes. The latter solution is more in line with the operational 
GFS...gefs...and ggem. The 12z European model (ecmwf) is more of an outlier with 
with the front stalled across the area sun into Tuesday. It maintains 
somewhat lower heights across the NE. A model ensemble approach 
suggests a more northern position of the front and is preferred at 
this time. 


Thus...looking at scattered...mainly diurnal convection...Thursday and 
Friday. Widely scattered/isolated convection over the weekend with a weak 
cold front passing on Sat and then possibly stalling nearby on 
sun....otherwise...very warm conditions Sat-Mon...with possible 
90-degree heat across the interior each day. Have trended warmer 
from the previous forecast with around 80 at the coast...to the 
middle and upper 80s inland. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. 
Temperatures look to be at least 10 degrees above normal. A cooler 
solution is possible should the weakening cold front that passes 
through on Sat stall out across the area as indicated by the 12z 
European model (ecmwf). Preference at this time was to go warmer based on the 
global model ensemble. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
a cold front will stall to the west of the area tonight...then 
dissipates on Wednesday. 


Conds taking longer to deteriorate than originally 
thought...therefore have pushed back timing a few hours. Very light 
boundary layer flow will remain across the area overnight and 
still have moderate to high confidence in at least IFR. Timing is 
where the uncertainty is. -Shra/-dz have ended and residual surface 
moisture from this will aid in the formation of fog next few 
hours. Low-moderate confidence in LIFR between 08z and 
13z...mainly at coastal terminals so have kept tempo. 


Conds improve to MVFR after sunrise Wednesday then VFR in the afternoon. Chance 
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm after 18z...mainly kswf but 
coverage and confidence not high enough to include at this time. 


Outlook for 00z Wednesday through sun... 
Wednesday night...IFR likely. 
Thu-sun...showers with isolated thunderstorms may lead to brief MVFR or 
IFR conds. 


&& 


Marine... 
will once again have to monitor for the potential of dense fog tonight 
as dewpoints will be close to sea surface temperatures. 


The Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in 
effect...mainly due to swell...through tonight and into Wednesday 
for the ocean waters. 


Light and variable winds tonight will become south to southwest on 
Wednesday ahead of a weak trough. Seas will slowly subside tonight 
and into Wednesday. With seas falling below Small Craft Advisory levels from west to 
east during the day on Wednesday. Do not expect any wind or wave 
related issues though for the harbors/bays and sound surrounding 
Long Island today through Wednesday. 


Winds and seas are expected to fall below Small Craft Advisory levels by Wednesday 
night...however Small Craft Advisory seas may linger into Wednesday night for the far 
eastern ocean waters. 


Pressure gradient will be weak enough to have sub Small Craft Advisory forecast 
conditions through long term. Generally...a S to SW flow at less 
than 10 knots. Possible areas of fog over the waters with very high 
dew points in place. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
very little...if any rain amounts for the rest of tonight. On 
Wednesday...a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled 
out...especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Any 
thunderstorms that develop could produce brief...heavy rainfall. 


In the long term...most rain in the form of isolated to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will vary across the region. 
Most basin averaged amounts are less than a quarter of an inch. 
However...thunderstorm activity will keep the potential for heavy 
downpours...which could easily dump at least half to one inch of 
rain in a short amount of time. This could lead to localized urban 
flooding. 


&& 


Okx watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am EDT 
Wednesday for anz355. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT 
Wednesday for anz350-353. 


&& 


$$