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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
1034 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
high pressure nosing south across the upper Great Lakes will make 
its way across our forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday night. As 
the high moves to the east later this week...warmer and more humid 
conditions will return. 


&& 


Near term /through Wednesday/... 
high pressure will nose south across the upper Great Lakes 
overnight. The synoptic scale subsidence combined with a nocturnally 
stabilized atmosphere will translate into a rain free night 
overnight period...but we will have a fair amount of cloud cover to 
deal with. Some areas have already experienced the formation of some 
low stratus cloud cover...which could become rather widespread by 
daybreak. 


These clouds will also help to hold our temperatures up a few 
degrees higher than surrounding weather forecast office forecast areas...as lows will 
range from the lower 50s across parts of the western southern tier to 
the middle and upper 50s elsewhere. 


On Wednesday...the low clouds will gradually give way to partly 
sunny skies for the late morning through the afternoon as high 
pressure will build across the region. High temperatures will climb back to 
the upper 70s to around 80 as 850mb temperatures will climb to near +12c. 
The hgihest temperatures Wednesday afternoon should be found in the Genesee 
and souithern tier valleys. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/... 
Wednesday evening lingering diurnal instability may still produce an 
isolated shower across the interior southern tier and Finger Lakes 
but otherwise expect a dry and partly cloudy night as a middle level 
ridge becomes re-established across the lower lakes and New England. 
Temperatures will remain mild with the lake plains staying in the 
lower 60s overnight with upper 50s across the southern tier valleys 
and Tug Hill region. 


Thursday and Thursday night in general an upper level ridge will 
remain in place across the eastern third of the nation. What remains 
of an old middle level closed low will lift north across the lower 
lakes region late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. By this 
time the system will be very weak and ill-defined...essentially 
evolving into a weakness in the upper level ridge. With warmth and 
decent instability developing Thursday afternoon cannot entirely 
rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two as this weak system moves 
overhead...mainly during the afternoon and evening tied to diurnal 
heating. GFS appears overdone with its convection on Thursday... 
likely due to being too aggressive with low level dewpoints and thus 
instability. Expect coverage of anything that does develop to remain 
very sparse...so for now will just keep a dry forecast. Temperatures 
will be very warm again with middle 80s in many locations...and south 
to southeast winds will prevent lake breezes in most areas with 
warmth right down to the lakeshores. 


Thursday night again cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm as 
the remnants of the middle level trough pass by...but will continue to 
keep a dry forecast given the expected sparse coverage. It will be 
another mild night with lows not dropping out of the middle 60s on the 
lake plains. 


On Friday the past few runs of the medium range model guidance... 
especially the GFS and gefs ensemble members...have sped up the 
timing of a weak cold front forecast to move through the Great Lakes 
region. The majority of the large scale forcing including middle level 
height falls and the upper level jet will pass by well north of the 
region through Ontario and Quebec. This will leave a trailing weak 
low level frontal zone. If the GFS timing holds...it will be 
crossing our region near peak heating late Friday and there will be 
a decent amount of moisture and instability available ahead of the 
front...so despite its weak nature the front may still trigger a few 
showers and storms. For now will just keep low chance probability of precipitation for the 
frontal passage and move up the timing to Friday afternoon and 
Friday evening. Expect another very warm day with 850mb temperatures 
climbing to around +16c. This will support middle to upper 80s inland 
from the lakes. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
on average the upcoming Holiday weekend into early next week will 
feature above to much above normal temperatures along with moderate 
humidity. There will be several difficult to time chances at showers 
and thunderstorms...but the vast majority of the time will be rain 
free. 


The weak cold front on Friday will briefly usher in a bubble of 
somewhat drier and less humid air for Saturday...although it will 
still be warm with above average temperatures. The new 12z European model (ecmwf) 
keeps the frontal zone close by across Lake Erie and northern PA and 
still generates scattered convection during the afternoon. For now 
will follow the GFS which pushes the boundary far enough south to 
keep western New York dry. 


Saturday night into Sunday both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) push the frontal 
zone back northeast as a warm front in response to a building ridge 
over the Ohio Valley. With the center of the middle level ridge just to 
our southwest...and the westerlies just to our north...this may put 
the Great Lakes region in a favorable location for a ring of fire 
type setup with one or more convective complexes rolling down the 
warm frontal zone. With this in mind have inserted low chance probability of precipitation 
for Saturday night into Sunday. 


By Monday the GFS and European model (ecmwf) develop the middle level ridge a little 
farther north into the lower lakes...setting the stage for another 
very warm day. With middle level heights and temperatures rising...have kept 
Monday dry at this point with middle to upper 80s. A middle level trough 
is then forecast to push into the Great Lakes and knock down the 
ridge some on Tuesday with a chance of showers and storms once again. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
while VFR conditions were still in place for most taf sites as of 
03z...sites such as kbuf and kroc have already experienced some IFR 
stratus. Inthe case of kroc...the startus was part of a fog bank 
that drifted south late in the afternoon from the South Shore of 
Lake Ontario. The kbuf 00z sounding indicated a wealth of low level 
moisture...with light winds from the surface through 15k feet. This should 
encourage more stratus to develop during the overnight so that 
most...if not all...taf sites will be under IFR to MVFR ceilings by 
daybreak. 


On Wednesday...the low ceilings will gradually burn off/mix out by 
midday. This will leave VFR conditions in place for the midday and 
afternoon hours. 


Outlook... 
Wednesday night...VFR. 
Thursday...VFR. 
Friday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers/storms late. 
Saturday and Sunday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers/storms. 


&& 


Marine... 
high pressure nosing south across the upper Great Lakes overnight 
will build across lakes Erie and Ontario Wednesday and Wednesday 
night. This will keep a weak surface pressure gradient over the 
lakes...which will result in light winds and negligible waves. These 
conditions are likely to persist through Thursday. 


While these will be nearly ideal conditions for many recreational 
boaters...the light winds may prove to be less than optimal for 
sailing enthusiasts. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...rsh 
near term...rsh/wch 
short term...Hitchcock 
long term...Hitchcock 
aviation...rsh 
marine...rsh