Your Weather

To update your location please enter your ZIP code, city, state, airport code or country in the field below. Weather by E-mail: Forecast storm alerts. Weather E-Mail Alert Sign Up »

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 57 °
• Fog

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
949 PM EDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak trough of low pressure will remain entrenched over the area 
throughout much of the work week. This disturbance will provide 
unsettled conditions with scattered showers and perhaps a few 
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With more breaks of sunshine 
expected Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures should warm into 
the 70s to around 80 Wednesday and Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through Wednesday/... 
00z data shows some weak instability over our region...with broad 
low level and midlevel convergence weakening. With the forcing 
weakening...and stabilization of the atmosphere through the 
night...the showers are steadily decreasing in covereage...and 
should just remain as isolated showers after midnight. Some of the 
earlier clearing has ended and clouds have expanded and reformed. 
However...some breaks could occur later tonight and toward 
sunrise...so will acknowledge patchy fog where any clearing could 
take place later...and also with persistent low level moisture 
over the region and the isolated showers. Temperatures should 
fall around current forecasted levels so only a few minor changes 
based on current observations and trends. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday/... 
an upper level trough and plenty of low level moisture will result in 
mostly diurnally driven showers and possible thunderstoms Wednesday 
through Thursday night. Have forecast probability of precipitation to rise to between 30 and 
40 percent Wednesday aftn/eve...and 20 to 30 percent Thursday 
aftn/eve...with probability of precipitation generally less than 15 percent late at night 
and early in the morning. 


With more breaks of sun expected Wednesday and Thursday...high temperatures 
will rebound into the 70s in all areas on Wednesday...and the middle 
70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Nightime temperatures will continue on the 
mild side with lows in the 50s to around 60 Wednesday night...and 
middle 50s to lower 60s Thursday night. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
the long term period starts out with the broad weak trough that will 
have been over the region much of the week finally lifting out of 
the area. However...a disturbance associated with the trough axis 
passage may trigger diurnal showers and thunderstorms since a warm 
and relatively moist air mass will still be in place. Convection may 
be somewhat organized depending on how much flow exits. There is 
discrepancy depending on model choice. Any convection should tend to 
diminish after dark. 


Model trends indicating a small bubble are of high pressure may be 
over the region on Saturday in wake of friday's trough passage. In 
the meantime...strong upper level ridging will be building across 
the Mississippi/Tennessee Valley regions spreading into the Ohio 
Valley. Still...cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered diurnal 
convection with an the old boundary decaying and becoming diffuse 
over the area. 


Sunday could be the more convectively active day...as a surge of middle 
Summer-like warmth and humidity make a run at US due to a warm front 
approaching from our southwest as the upper ridge continues to build 
eastward. Aloft...we will likely be in a northwest flow regime with 
possible bouts of convective complexes propagating southeast from 
the Great Lakes. Still several days out...but will need to monitor 
for potential strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. 


Memorial Day will we will continue to deal with possible convection 
with the warm front trying to push through the area but may not be 
able to depending on how far north the upper ridge can build. Very 
warm and humid conditions should persist...but again with a threat 
of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The Monday/Tuesday 
time frame could be the warmest days if the warm front can lift 
north of the area. There is good model consensus that a cyclone will 
migrate eastward across Quebec on Tuesday with a possible cold front 
passage. Chances for precipitation look to be above normal with above 
normal temperatures too through the period. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
the atmospphere is drying out over much of the region...but some 
scattered showers to the northwest could build into the areas 
later this evening before they should dry up. Lingering low level 
moisture should support low clouds and fog after midnight and 
through about 13z at all sites...so current VFR should drop to 
MVFR/IFR. After 13z...ceilings and visibilities should lift to VFR 
range...bt some scattered showers in the afternoon acknowledged by 
putting vcsh. 


Winds should be light at less tahn 10 knots through the period. 


Outlook... 
Wed-sun...VFR/MVFR. Chance PM -shra/-tsra. Chance late nt/early am br/fg. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a weak trough of low pressure will remain entrenched over the area 
throughout much of the work week. This disturbance will provide 
unsettled conditions with bouts of showers and perhaps a few mainly 
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will be 
above normal with somewhat humid conditions for late may. 


Relative humidity values will increase to near 100 percent tonight...and only lower 
to between 50 and 65 percent on Wednesday. 


Surface winds will be variable to south under 10 miles per hour through 
Wednesday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no widespread hydrologic problems are expected through the next five 
days. There will be a continued chance for bouts of showers and a 
few thunderstorms through much of the work week...as a slow moving 
trough of low pressure remains parked over the region. For the most 
part...these showers should only produce minor rises on rivers and 
streams as we expect river basin forecast rainfalls between a 
quarter to three quarters of an inch through the next several days. 


The best chance for slow moving thunderstorms will be during the 
afternoon and evening hours each day. Although widespread heavy rain 
is not forecast...some isolated hydrologic issues will be possible 
due to locally heavy rain from slow moving showers or thunderstorms 
producing localized rainfall amounts of an inch or more and possible 
ponding of water in areas of poor drainage. 


For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed 
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the 
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...NAS 
near term...NAS 
short term...hwjiv/jpv 
long term...bgm 
aviation...NAS 
fire weather...hwjiv/jpv 
hydrology...jpv