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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 61 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York 
654 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak front will very slowly trudge into the Poconos and 
Catskills today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be 
possible by this afternoon...mainly near this front. The front 
will dissolve tonight...leaving behind only low chances for 
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. However...a disturbance 
arriving late Friday to early Saturday...will provide more chances 
for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to turn 
quite warm over the upcoming Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
645 am update... weakly defined front is edging eastward at a 
walking pace...now settling in on the Catskills and Poconos. 
Patchy fog and/or low stratus developed as expected across much of 
our area...particularly for areas that received recent rainfall. 


Along with the surface front itself...weak wave aloft is shunting 
deeper moisture southeast with time. Models suggest that northwest 
of a Towanda-Binghamton-Norwich line...precipitable water values 
will actually drop to around or under an inch...while being 
limited to about an inch-and-a-quarter in Catskills/Poconos. Flow 
will still be weak today...but as scattered convection develops 
along frontal leftovers in the southeastern zones...with lower 
precipitable water values and narrow convective available potential energy...I feel the isolated 
threat for minor flooding is very low...and have removed mention 
of it in the hazardous weather outlook. 


That being said...even though quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will not be high...I 
went ahead with high chance to likely probability of precipitation this afternoon in 
Catskills/Poconos...because of good model consensus that there 
will be diurnally forced convection due to juxtaposition of weak 
surface convergence...topographical forcing...absence of 
capping...and adequate moisture. Farther north and west...moisture 
will be more limited...capping will be an influence...and there 
will be a lack of forcing /beyond the usual diurnal heating/. 
Thus...slight to low chance probability of precipitation...if that. Also...a pretty good 
amount of sun eventually breaking out for The Finger lakes. I went 
slightly above blended guidance for high temperatures today 
because of recent cool bias to the models...or roughly 7 to 10 
degrees above normal. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/... 
430 am update... 
what is left of front will dissolve tonight...which along with 
loss of diurnal heating...will allow any showers/thunder in 
southeastern zones to quickly dissipate early this evening. That 
will leave US with a fairly Boring night of weak flow with the sky 
ranging from mostly clear northwest...to mostly cloudy southeast. 


Precipitable will edge back up to between an inch and inch- 
and-a-quarter areawide on Thursday...as upper low in the southern 
Appalachians opens up...and migrates our direction. A weak cap may 
generally inhibit convection...especially north...but otherwise 
looking for diurnal heating and approaching remains of upper 
low...to produce showers and thunderstorms of at least some 
limited coverage within our area Thursday afternoon. Best chance 
of this /though still not very much/ will be in southeastern 
zones...where moisture availability will be best...and developing 
southeast low level flow may help via topographical enhancement. 


A transition occurs Friday...with leftovers of upper low exiting 
to our northeast...while large summerlike upper high begins 
building from middle Mississippi River valley into the Ohio Valley. 
This will set up a pattern with our region residing on the 
southern periphery of the westerlies /on top of building 
upper high/...vulnerable to embedded waves and possible batches of 
convection. The first of these is set to arrive as early as Friday 
afternoon as per NAM/GFS/Gem...or perhaps delaying to a bit later 
like the European model (ecmwf). At least chance probability of precipitation warranted for now...highest 
for northwestern zones...with questions on timing and strength of 
cap yet to be resolved. Amount of diurnal heating also in question 
because of potential cloud cover...and what may be more of an 
occluded nature to the front. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
very uncertain forecast through the extended time frame once again as 
long term models continue to struggle with strength of developing 
ridge across the southeastern US. As was the case yesterday...the 
GFS remains the warmest solution which shows heights approaching 
590 dm by late sun/early Monday. Under this scenario...high temperatures 
would reach well into the upper 80s to near 90 across much of the 
region by early next week. Meanwhile the cooler European model (ecmwf) solution 
continues to flip flop back and forth...with the current solution 
suggesting a gradual suppression of the building ridge as an upper 
low drops southeast through central Quebec early next week. From 
this Vantage Point...and considering the inability of long term 
models to home in on any one particular solution...have decided to 
make very few changes to the extended forecast until models begin to 
show some continuity with the main synoptic features of interest. 
Contrary to yesterday/S runs...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are now 
suggesting a lingering frontal boundary hanging around at the 
start of the period which would keep the potential for scattered 
showers and storms in the forecast through the upcoming weekend. 
In general...we continue to favor the slightly warmer GFS solution 
as it has shown the most run-to-rum consistency in recent days. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
plenty of ll moisture in combination with light winds has allowed 
spotty IFR and even LIFR conds this morning. Expect conds to improve 
after sunrise when mixing will help burn off the fog and St 
leading to VFR conds. Weak frontal boundary is over the far southeast part of 
the forecast area today. To the west...taf sites will show some 
stabilization of the sndg making it difficult for conv showers to develop. 
So...do not expect showers or trws today...or at least enough of a 
chance to add to taf forecasts. Clear skies and light winds tonight will 
allow VFR conds. Fog will develop once again after 07z with light winds. 


Outlook... 


Thursday through sun...generally VFR...xcpt MVFR in scattered afternoon shra/tsra. 


&& 


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mdp 
near term...mdp 
short term...mdp 
long term...cmg 
aviation...dgm