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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 
751 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
outside a stray afternoon or early evening shower or storm...mainly 
dry weather is expected through Thursday with warm temperatures and 
modest humidity levels. A weakening cold front will push through the 
area Friday night into Saturday though again showery precipitation 
will be scattered at best. Warm temperatures continue into next week 
with more active weather possible as showers and thunderstorms will 
be more common. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 722 am EDT Wednesday...modest adjustments to sky cover to 
keep mostly cloudy conds across much of the area through the 
morning hours based off current observational/satellite trends and 
latest rap 925mb relative humidity forecasts. Also nudged maximum temperatures down just a tad 
(1-2 deg). Rest of forecast unchanged. 


Prior discussion... 
weak and dissolving frontal system continues to sag ever so 
slowly southward through the forecast area this morning as winds 
have shifted to light north/northeasterly across our northern counties 
as of 3 am. Still a few showers/patchy -dz around the area with 
near saturated lower levels. Otherwise a rather uneventful day on 
tap weatherwise for the region as aforementioned frontal system 
dissipates to our immediate south across central/southern New England. 
Despite light northerly flow...no appreciable airmass change 
expected and much drier air off to our north across southern on/qe 
really won't make appreciable inroads into our area. Variably 
cloudy skies and patchy br/fog this morning should scour out to 
partly sunny in many areas this afternoon as planetary boundary layer deepens. Still 
could see an isolated late afternoon/early evening shower/storm far 
south in closer proximity to old boundary and deeper moisture 
axis...but dry weather will be the general rule. Blended 18-00z 
model 925 mb thermal forecasts support blended MOS late afternoon 
highs in the 72 to 78 degree range. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/... 
as of 344 am EDT Wednesday...then quiet tonight as deep layer surface 
to 500 mb ridging begins to build back across the region. Mainly 
clear/partly cloudy skies expected...though as flow trends light 
south/southeasterly overnight a decent chance that some lower 
cloud cover may begin to encroach back northward into our southern/southeastern 
Vermont counties after midnight. Patchy fog also a good bet as wet 
ground conds Foster saturation in the near-surface layers. Lows 
similar to this morning...mainly 50s to locally near 60 in milder 
spots of the Champlain Valley. 


By Thursday ridging will become well established across the area as 
southerly flow slowly increases and trends modestly gusty by 
afternoon. Still an outside chance of a few showers/stray storms 
here and there during peak heating hours south as surface insolation 
acts on residual moisture axis...otherwise dry and partly sunny 
should be the rule in most locales. Temperatures a tad warmer into 
the 77 to 83 range...continuing recent string of above normal days. 
Then partly/mostly cloudy and mild Thursday night as temperatures hold 
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. 


By Friday...gusty southerly flow continues across the area along 
with a continued isolated threat of a few showers/storms here and there 
by the afternoon/early evening hours. Best threat appears to occur 
across the slv where added moisture convergence and approaching 
weak frontal system may aid in somewhat higher coverage toward 
evening. Continued unseasonably warm with highs 78 to 85 and modest 
humidity levels. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
as of 445 am EDT Wednesday...the period will start with a cold 
front traversing over the forecast area. 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) differ on 
timing of frontal passage...but both models show front lingering 
along the Atlantic coast by Saturday night. High pressure will 
then build in at the surface from southern Quebec...giving a short 
dry period on Saturday into early Sunday. Late Sunday...model 
guidance indicates an upper level disturbance/weak short wave 
will move over the region...with an upper level jet to our north. 
Increased instability late Sunday into Monday with GFS indicating 
cape values over 1000j/kg and negative lifted indices. European model (ecmwf) 
keeps the high cape value to our south. 


The aforementioned cold front will lift northward as a warm front 
as low pressure center at the surface moves from the northwestern Great Lakes 
to southeast Ontario Monday and Tuesday. This will continue to produce 
chance of showers. 


Temperatures will continue to be above normal...with a slight 
cooling trend to start. 850hpa temperatures will cool from the middle teens 
to 10c-12c Sunday. Ecwmf has front system being stronger than GFS 
and brings single digit temperatures at 850hpa by Monday morning. Both 
models do show decent temperature gradient over the northeast which will 
help with potential for convective activity. Both models warm 
temperatures on Monday to middle to upper teens at 850hpa...but gradually 
cooling on Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
through 12z Thursday...clouds will gradually dissipate this 
morning...with improving visibilities. Overall flight conditions will 
improve to MVFR by late morning...15z at kbtv/kpbg/rut/ 
conditions will continue to improve to VFR by late morning/early 
afternoon at all terminals. Clouds will generally become scattered to 
broken middle and high level for the afternoon and evening. 
Overnight...moisture will surge northward into the 
area...allowing for MVFR conditions to develop around 05z-06z 
through Thursday morning. 


Outlook 12z Thursday through Sunday... 12z Thursday through 18z 
Friday...generally VFR under ridge of high pressure...although 
some fog/br possible Thursday morning. 18z Friday through 
Sunday...generally VFR but brief periods of MVFR possible in 
scattered showers/tstorms. 


&& 


Btv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Vermont...none. 
New York...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...jmg 
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short term...jmg 
long term...kgm 
aviation...kgm