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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 59 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Buffalo New York 
729 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
an area of high pressure will settle across the eastern Great Lakes 
today...though lingering moisture will promote morning clouds that 
will dissipate through the day. Afternoon temperatures will climb to 
just above normal values with a bit of humidity. There will be a 
partly cloudy sky tonight...and dry with overnight lows remaining 
mild. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
weak high pressure over the central Great Lakes this morning will 
settle eastward over the eastern Great Lakes today. Visible 
satellite this morning...along with surface observation show clearing across 
far western New York...with cloudy skies elsewhere. Will trend the 
sky grids to allow more morning sunshine across far western New 
York...with the remainder of the region becoming partly to mostly 
sunny through the late morning and afternoon hours. 


Fog this morning is found thickest across the inland southern tier 
with patchy fog elsewhere where it rained the heaviest on Tuesday. 
All fog will lift through the morning hours today as boundary layer 
mixing increases. 


With the weak frontal boundary now to our east...and building 
heights aloft precipitation chances will remain minimal through the day 
with lack of a significant forcing mechanism. Instability will 
increase this afternoon as the clouds thin some...however with the 
axis of a 500 hpa ridge building across the region this afternoon 
feel chances for any convection will be minimal...with the southern 
tier the likeliest place for a pop up shower where instability 
will be found the greatest...and along a lake breeze boundary. 


Increasing sunshine through the day and warm air advection this 
afternoon will allow for highs to top out in the middle 70s. 


For tonight a low level southerly to southeasterly synoptic flow 
will increase...allowing middle level moisture from the southern Middle 
Atlantic States to advance northward. Expect clouds to increase some 
through the overnight...mainly towards the southern tier...though 
with the upper level ridge overhead expect a dry overnight. 
Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows dropping back into 
the upper 50s and around 60 on the lake plain. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday night/... 
ridging is the dominate feature Thursday and Thursday night. South 
southwesterly flow on the western side of the high centered over the 
Canadian Maritimes will allow more humid air to push northward into 
the region. Little if any mechanism for ascent...but weak diurnally 
driven instability would suggest at least the potential for some 
isolated convection along any possible lake breeze boundary. Warm 
day expect with most highs in the lower 80s. If any convection does 
manage to develop Thursday afternoon it will die off early Thursday 
night...leaving fair but muggy conditions with overnight lows not 
dropping out of the middle 60s along the lake plains. Operational 
models continuing to suggest that the surface cold front will 
push through the area Friday...but the front is ill defined as 
the upper level support is displaced off to the north. Boundary 
instability will increase sufficiently with weak frontal lift 
developing by afternoon to continue with the mention of scattered 
afternoon convection...especially interior areas. Another warm 
day with highs in the lower to middle 80s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
on average the upcoming Holiday weekend into early next week will 
feature above to much above normal temperatures along with moderate 
humidity. There will be several difficult to time chances of showers 
and thunderstorms...but the vast majority of the time will be rain 
free. 


The weak cold front on Friday will briefly usher in a bubble of 
somewhat drier and less humid air for Saturday...although it will 
still be warm with above average temperatures. The new 12z European model (ecmwf) 
keeps the frontal zone close by across Lake Erie and northern PA and 
still generates scattered convection during the afternoon. For now 
will follow the GFS which pushes the boundary far enough south to 
keep western New York dry. 


Saturday night into Sunday both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) push the frontal 
zone back northeast as a warm front in response to a building ridge 
over the Ohio Valley. With the center of the middle level ridge just to 
our southwest...and the westerlies just to our north...this may put 
the Great Lakes region in a favorable location for a ring of fire 
type setup with one or more convective complexes rolling down the 
warm frontal zone. With this in mind have inserted low chance probability of precipitation 
for Saturday night into Sunday. 


By Monday the GFS and European model (ecmwf) develop the middle level ridge a little 
farther north into the lower lakes...setting the stage for another 
very warm day. With middle level heights and temperatures rising...have kept 
Monday dry at this point with middle to upper 80s. A middle level trough 
is then forecast to push into the Great Lakes and knock down the 
ridge some on Tuesday with a chance of showers and storms once again. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
at 12z VFR/MVFR flight conditions were found across much of the 
region...though some low ceilings and IFR flight conditions lingered 
through the Genesee Valley and the southern tier. Expect a return to 
VFR through the region this morning as IFR ceilings dissipate. 


Winds will be light today and overnight...though direction will be 
challenging. An easterly component to the wind is expected through 
much of the taf period...though for kbuf/kiag/kart a possible lake 
breeze may swing winds around to a westerly flow. Under the mostly 
cloudy skies...will maintain the easterly flow in the tafs...and 
wait for lake breeze circulations to develop before timing any lake 
breeze wind shifts. 


Expect VFR flight conditions through the overnight time period with 
continued light winds that will become southeasterly late in the period. 


Outlook... 
Wednesday night...VFR. 
Thursday...VFR. 
Friday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers/storms late. 
Saturday and Sunday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers/storms. 


&& 


Marine... 
winds on the lakes will remain light today and tonight as a weak 
area of high pressure settles across the eastern Great Lakes. 
Negligible waves will continue on both lakes today and tonight. 
Patchy fog is possible this morning on the lakes...but visibilities 
should improve this morning with increasing amounts of sunshine this 
afternoon. These light winds and minimal waves are likely to persist 
through Thursday. 


While these will be nearly ideal conditions for many recreational 
boaters...the light winds may prove to be less than optimal for 
sailing enthusiasts. 


&& 


Buf watches/warnings/advisories... 
New York...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Thomas 
near term...Thomas 
short term...tma 
long term...Hitchcock 
aviation...Thomas 
marine...rsh/Thomas