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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
754 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak surface boundary will remain across our region for the next 
several days. Aloft...high pressure will be building over the 
northeast. Although widely scattered showers and thunderstorms can 
be expected each afternoon and evening...much of the time will be 
rainfree with some sunshine...warming temperatures and somewhat 
uncomfortable humidity levels. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 630 am...radar indicating a few light returns (probably 
drizzle). Otherwise quiet with lots of clouds and patchy fog. 


Only very minor re-tooling of the grids for this update. 


Drier air from western New York continued to move further into the 
Empire state. 


The middle level dry slot...as well as a stalled out weak frontal 
boundary...should become the focus for any convection later on 
today. The line of drier middle level air looks to move into our region 
later this morning...and then be across our southeastern zones late 
in the day while the surface front does the same. Still believe the 
highest chance of probability of precipitation will be south and east of the capital 
district and we have assigned values to 50 in these areas. Well 
north and west of Albany...we will continue with slight probability of precipitation. 


MUCAPES look to increase to nearly 1000j/kg from Albany south and 
eastward...lesser amounts further northwest. 


The wind field is weak and the wet bulb level fairly high (over 
10000 feet) so we believe the threat for any strong or severe storms 
is very low. Since there is actually a little more wind then 
yesterday we also believe if any thunderstorms were to form...they 
should keep moving (albeit slowly) so no enhanced wording. 


Clearing is expected from northwest to southeast as the morning 
wears on. Scattered thunderstorms could form from Albany south and 
east...with only slight chances further north and west. 


Temperatures look to be warmer than yesterday...reaching the middle or 
upper 70s most places along with dewpoints holding around 60 or a 
little higher. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/... 
a weak quasi-stationary surface boundary and plenty of low level 
moisture will result in additional mostly diurnally driven showers 
and possible thunderstorms again on Thursday. It appears that this 
boundary will remain sandwiched between the capital district and 
points south and east. Therefore will carry 30 probability of precipitation in these 
areas...only 20 probability of precipitation to the north and west. MUCAPES look to reach a 
1000 j/kg or better again during this time frame. Models soundings 
do hint at a cap in the middle levels...especially the NAM. 


By Friday...the remnants of an upper level disturbance to our 
south...is forecast lift north back across our region during the 
afternoon. Therefore will continue with the diurnal idea with slight 
probability of precipitation early...30 probability of precipitation during the afternoon everywhere. 


By Friday night...a cold front is forecast to move across our 
region...but since it comes at night and looks to weaken...we 
actually have only slight probability of precipitation...with any chance of thunder confined 
to the evening hours. 


The big story for the short period will be a noticeable increase in 
temperatures as h850 temperatures look to average between +12c in 
our northwest areas...to +15c in our southeast areas. 


Tonight...temperatures will only dip back close to 60 degrees. There 
might be patchy fog...but given the time of year...we would rather 
wait to see how much rain fall during the day today before 
mentioning fog in the forecast tonight. 


Thursday...temperatures will be similar to Wednesday....75 to around 
80 degrees. 


On Friday...with more sunshine...look for most places to reach over 
80 degrees in valley areas ... middle to upper 70s higher terrain. 


Went with a mav/met blend for high/low temperatures. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
as mentioned in the previous long term afd...the start of the 
Holiday weekend may experience a small area of high pressure across 
the region. There is still plenty of guidance spread here as the 
northern tier of the country will be along a strengthening 
baroclinic zone as Summer-like airmass attempts to build 
northeastward. For now...we will continue along continuity but 
trend a little lower with the probability of precipitation. If the European model (ecmwf)/ggem are 
correct...the weak surface boundary will line up just southeast of 
the capital region. Under a mixture of cloud cover...we will shade 
a little cooler than those values offered by the 00z mex 
temperatures. 


Then the weather pattern has the potential to be active /perhaps 
quite active/ for the second half of the weekend and on Memorial 
Day. An impressive upstream surge of higher Theta-E air and warm 
advection across the Mississippi River valley will interact with the 
aforementioned tightening baroclinic zone along the U.S./Canadian 
border. Based on the latest guidance...our region remains within a 
northwest flow regime aloft. So any mesoscale convective system that may develop upstream 
should propagate into the region. This will continue to be closely 
monitored. Temperatures and dewpoints will be on the rise with many 
locations into the 80s. 


Confidence reduces further on Tuesday as upstream amplification of 
the upper trough remains in question as the GFS is the most 
aggressive while the European model (ecmwf)/dgex as much slower and less amplified. 
For now...we will keep the weather dry with near to slightly above 
seasonable temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
a slow moving boundary continues to gradually slide southeast 
across the region. This is providing some light widely scattered 
shower activity along with MVFR conditions and periods of IFR 
conditions this morning. 


The atmosphere is attempting to dry out and that will be the case 
today. This should have some positive impacts to flight 
conditions during the daylight hours with improving MVFR-VFR 
conditions. However...that aforementioned frontal boundary remains 
nearby and there is still the chance for convection to develop 
during the afternoon. For now...a vcsh will be added to all sites 
except kpou...where there is a better chance for thunder towards 
evening close to the boundary and have added a prob30. 


This evening...depending on where precipitation occurs...there is a chance 
for additional MVFR/IFR conditions due to visible and ceilings 
restrictions. 


Outlook... 
Thu-sun...VFR/MVFR. Chance PM -shra/-tsra. Chance late nt/early am br/fg. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
it will be humid the next several days with relative humidity values recovering to 
near 100 percent each overnight...and dropping only to around 50 
percent or higher each of the next several hours. There will be a 
continued chance of showers and thunderstorms...mainly each 
afternoon and early evening...and mainly from the capital district 
south and eastward. However...most of the time during the next 
several days will be rainfree. There will be some sunshine each 
day...especially from Albany north and west. The wind will be light 
to south or southwest 10 miles per hour or less...nearly calm at night. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no widespread hydrologic problems are expected through the next five 
days. Average rainfall basin quantitative precipitation forecast looks to be under an inch for the 
several days. However...localized downpours are possible with any 
thunderstorm capable of producing an inch in a few spots. Rivers and 
streams will likely have little or no response...unless localized 
heavy rainfall from a thunderstorms were to fall directly on a 
sensitive headwaiter area. The best chance of thunderstorms will be 
during the afternoon and early evening hours. 


For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed 
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the 
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...hwjiv 
near term...hwjiv 
short term...hwjiv 
long term...bgm 
aviation...bgm/jpv 
fire weather...hwjiv 
hydrology...jpv