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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
648 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
a low pressure system east of the area will allow for some 
precipitation across south central Ohio and north central Kentucky 
today. High pressure will build into the area for Thursday 
allowing for dry conditions across the region. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
some patchy dense fog has developed across the southeast half of the forecast area 
this morning. Kept fog mention in the forecast for this morning 
and added fog mention in the severe weather potential statement. 


An upper level low will be east of the forecast area today. The eastern 
edge of the forecast area will be closer to this system and therefore has 
the potential to have some isolated showers and thunderstorms 
today. Expect precipitation to taper off by this evening. 
Temperatures will be slightly warmer across northwest portions of the forecast area 
today due to more sunshine in that area. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/... 
the upper level low pressure system will begin to exit the area 
and high pressure will build into the area tonight. This will allow for 
dry conditions across the area for Thursday. As southerly flow 
develops across the forecast area a gradual warming trend will occur. 
Temperatures will be well above normal for this time period with 
high temperatures in the middle 80s to the lower 90s by Saturday. 


Models have come more in line with bringing a chance for some 
shower and thunderstorm activity across northern portions of the 
forecast area on Friday. Due to this there will be more cloud cover across 
northern portions of the forecast area on Friday and subsequently lower 
temperatures than the rest of the forecast area. The GFS tries to bring some 
additional precipitation into the area for Saturday however the 
European model (ecmwf) keeps the area dry. The ridge looks to be more well 
established by Saturday and therefore left Saturday dry across the forecast area. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/... 
a ridge over the eastern U.S. Will let southerly surface flow 
warm temperatures into the 90s for most locations on Sunday. 


By Tuesday...surface low pressure is prognosticated to hit the Great Lakes 
region with a trailing cold front through the Ohio Valley...and its 
associated rainfall and potential thunderstorms. 500 mb features are 
fairly zonal so I do not see a well defined feature to add any sense 
of timing or indicator of increased strength to the surface front 
and I kept the chances on the lower side until Tuesday...increasing 
the possible chance for showers as early as late Monday. Cooler air 
will result after the fronts passage on Tuesday. 


Until the front comes through Tuesday...high temperatures will 
increase a degree or so each day...and nighttime lows will be 
hard pressed to drop below the uncomfortably humid middle and upper 
60s. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
visibility restrictions in fog will continue through the first few 
hours of the taf period. Thereafter will see scattered to broken 
cumulus with light easterly winds veering. Skies will clear this 
evening and light flow will be conducive for fog formation once 
again late in the taf period. 


Outlook...MVFR/IFR visibilities possible early Thursday morning. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Novak 
near term...Novak 
short term...Novak 
long term...franks 
aviation...