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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 57 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana 
530 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Aviation... /12 UTC tafs/ 
VFR met conds expected to persist through the period as dry/subsident 
airmass remains locked through southern Great Lakes region. 


&& 


Short term... 
today through Thursday night. Primarily minor tweaks to ongoing 
benign short term period. Midlvl troffing to assure staid 
subsident cp airmass across southern Great Lakes. Laps pt sounding depict well 
established subsidence inversion that should preclude all but few- 
scattered cumulus with again most cumulus regen in far southeastern County Warning Area amid slightly more 
moist/trapped moisture in 900-850mb layer sandwiched between 
surface/subsidence inversion. Weak midlvl ridging from Southern Lower Michigan into 
Southern Plains/remnant Rex of California system to continue filling/lysis through 
short term period...to become embolden from hght rises of old 
Mexico/Sierra madres into Gomex/southern msvly by dy3. Ridge foothold 
to assure strong high belted/50n wave train...W/ first in series 
across intmtn regn with 100-120m/12 hour hght falls indicated across 
cntl rockies into western NE by f18...will be shunted well northwest of 
County Warning Area...with core of rapid 80-90 knots 500 mb jetlet held well west of County Warning Area 
from southern NE cyclonically curved into WI/western yoop by Thursday evening. Given 
increases in deep parallel frontal flow...have slight nod to 
slower/consistent European model (ecmwf) solution and anticipate other models to slow 
front with later iterations/laying out into northwestern County Warning Area during the 
start of present long term period. As such kept probability of precipitation/cloud cover increases 
to a minimum west/ only slight upward tick 06-12 UTC Friday...Sans 
sensible weather. Sig gefs pop spread/large South Dakota/across western/northwestern points 
ending 12 UTC Friday figure well with conservative approach at this time. 
Strong insolation both days and core of strong /23c layer average/ 
1000-850mb thermal ridge across western County Warning Area have settled for slight 
warmer trend and dcrsd Lake Shadow effect with late afternoon lake 
breeze into Berrien shoreline per finer res wrfarw/nnm today...and 
none presence dy2. 


&& 


Long term...Friday through Tuesday 


On Friday primary short wave track will likely remain off to the 
west northwest of the area with continued indications that lead 
short wave will lift into the upper Great Lakes Friday. This will 
allow a frontal boundary to sag southward into the area on Friday 
perhaps providing a Focal Point for isolated/scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. Medium range models continue to exhibit slightly 
different solutions in regards to this lead short wave with ec 
remaining on slower and more damped side compared to GFS/Gem. European model (ecmwf) 
does appear to be a bit of a slow outlier but given strength of 
downstream ridging initially have opted to go with blended idea 
incorporating some of this slower European model (ecmwf) idea. Narrow axis of low 
level moisture pooling associated with this front may allow for 
enough elevated instability for isolated thunder Friday morning. With 
stronger middle level forcing lifting into the northern Great Lakes 
during the day Friday...front should stall out across the area 
before returning northward as a warm front again Friday night as a 
stronger low level jet develops. The zone of pooled low level 
moisture will likely reside across southeast portions of the 
forecast area Friday afternoon while conditions are likely to become 
more capped across the northwest with drier low levels. Given lack 
of strong middle level forcing...capping concerns...generally weak low 
level convergence....have kept only slight chance probability of precipitation for thunderstorms and rain 
Friday afternoon. 


Northward lifting front Friday night should support elevated thunder 
chances especially across the north on the nose of what should be a 
northward building middle level ridge/cap. Some chance that elevated 
convection may persist across the north into Saturday but have not 
introduced any additional probability of precipitation at this point. Theme for the 
remainder of the weekend will shift to heat and humidity with middle 
level height rises become established and cap more firmly in place 
by Sunday. Sunday still shaping up to be hottest day of the period 
with 00z GFS appearing to remain a fast outlier in taking next upper 
trough into the northern plains with just a slightly less amplified 
upper ridge in place. Will stay with model consensus idea for this 
period however with a slower upper trough evolution of European model (ecmwf)/Gem 
given highly amplified pattern. 00z European model (ecmwf) low level thermal forecasts 
would even support highs in the middle to upper 90s if verified...which 
has been fairly consistent from run to run. Thus have opted to 
continue the trend from previous forecasts in nudging up highs for 
Sunday...generally into the lower to middle 90s. 


No major changes for the Monday/Tuesday period with chances of showers and 
thunderstorms as upper trough across the central/northern plains 
slowly breaks down the upper ridge...with an eventual cold frontal 
passage toward the end of the period. In leaning toward the slower 
ec solution....only tweak for this period was to warm Monday highs 
slightly. 


&& 


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... 
in...none. 
Michigan...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Lm...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...Murphy 
long term...marsili 
aviation...Murphy