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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 61 °
• Fog

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio 
917 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
upper level low pressure over the Middle Atlantic States will 
weaken into Thursday. This will allow a warm front to lift 
northward across the region Thursday afternoon. A weakening cold 
front will stall over the area Friday night but will lift back to 
the north as a warm front Saturday night. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 


Morning 12z soundings support the current maximum temperature forecast 
with minor changes in the west. Widely scattered convection may 
develop along the lake breeze in northwest PA in the afternoon but 
confidence is not high. Will leave mention of precipitation in the forecast 
for now since kpit sounding has a trigger temperature of only 73f. 


Previous discussion... 
areas of fog will be located across Northern Ohio into northwest PA this 
morning. Believe there will be some patchy dense fog...especially 
where heavier rainfall occurred Monday evening. At this point plan 
to handle the patchy dense fog with a short term forecast. However 
if it become more widespread we will issue a dense fog advisory. 


Convergence along the lake breeze and the upper low over the 
middle Atlantic may be just enough to cause an isolated 
thunderstorm from Ashtabula County northeast into inland northwest PA. If 
they occur at all they will be brief. 


It will be mostly sunny/partly cloudy today with warmer temperatures 
expected. Highs at most locations will return to the middle and 
upper 70s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/... 
the upper level low will move far up the East Coast on Thursday 
allowing a warm front to lift into the region by Thursday 
afternoon. This may allow for the development of isolated/scattered 
thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon and evening. We will then 
await a weakening cold front that will eventually stall near or 
just south of the region Friday night. Once again there will 
likely be enough convergence to cause/isolated to scattered 
thunderstorms. This boundary will lift back to the north on 
Saturday with some very warm temperatures approaching the region 
from the south. There may still be some thunderstorms across northwest 
PA if the warm front does not clear them before Saturday 
afternoon. 


Highs will remain well above average for Thursday through Saturday. 
Most locations will experience highs in the 80s...cooler near the 
Lakeshore. Northwest Ohio may have a few locations approach 90 degrees by 
Saturday afternoon. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/... 
stationary front will lift well north of the area as a warm front on 
Sunday allowing very warm and tropical air to move into the region. 
All of the guidance suggests that we will see the warmest 
temperatures of the season so far on Sunday and Monday. 


Southwest flow will pump very warm and moist air out of the Gulf of 
Mexico into the region producing unstable air. There will be a 
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the extreme east on 
Sunday due to lingering moisture from the frontal boundary. After 
that...there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Monday due 
to instability and moisture flux from the south along with the day 
time heating. Lake breeze could be the main focus for development of 
the activity. 


A cold front will approach on Tuesday and as the front moves through 
the region...there is the possibility that we could see strong to 
severe thunderstorms during the day. Will have to monitor progress 
and timing of the front as it approaches. 


As mentioned above...very warm to hazy hot and humid conditions 
shaping up for the extended periods. Cool down expected on Tuesday 
with the cold front. 


&& 


Aviation /13z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
fog and stratus will burn off this morning and give way to VFR 
again. Lake breeze will develop along the Lake Shore at Erie and 
Cleveland. Some fair weather cumulus will develop inland south of 
the lake breeze. Now the other problem we have to contend with is 
whether we will see a threat for an isolated shower or 
thunderstorm develop south of the lake breeze and over extreme 
eastern portions of the forecast area. We think it should be so 
isolated that it may not affect any taf sites. However...aviation 
interests should keep in mind the possibility that there may be 
one or two around to affect operations. Winds go light and 
variable again tonight. 


Outlook...non-VFR possible in morning br/fg. 


&& 


Marine... 
nearly perfect boating conditions expected going into the Holiday 
weekend. Winds should remain light through the period with waves 
basically less than 2 feet across the Lake. Quiet weather is the 
result of high pressure moving east of the region through the period. 


&& 


Cle watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Mullen 
near term...relatively 
short term...Mullen 
long term...Lombardy 
aviation...Lombardy 
marine...Lombardy