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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 73 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
638 am CDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Discussion... 
aviation discussion for the 12z tafs is below. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions are expected to continue. 


Strong south/southeast winds will develop 14-16z and be 
strongest 19-01z. 


Added vcsh near kokc...koun...and klaw through 14z. 


There is a chance of IFR/MVFR conditions at kgag and kwwr as 
well as ksps and klaw after 10z...but did not mention due to 
low confidence of occurrence. 


Non convective low level wind shear is possible at nearly any site 
after 01z with winds 40-55 knots 2000 feet above ground level...but did not mention 
due to low confidence of occurrence. 


Mbs 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 449 am CDT Wednesday may 23 2012/ 


Discussion... 
the main concern is dealing with windy conditions today as well 
as hot to very hot temperatures. 


Issued a Wind Advisory for all areas except southeast of 
a Henrietta Texas to Holdenville Oklahoma line. Confidence is 
moderate to high that surface winds will be 30-35 miles per hour sustained 
with gusts up to 45 miles per hour in advisory area...especially between 2 
and 8 PM CDT. Was impressed with 00z nam12 0-1 km wind fields and 
00z metmos winds 25-29 knots across much of the area which were 
slightly higher than the 00z mavmos winds. This was very unusual 
as the mavmos winds are typically higher than the metmos winds. 


Increased highs today across western Oklahoma and western North 
Texas based on the latest raw 00z nam12/European model (ecmwf) model 850/925 mb 
temperature fields which depicted 3-7c warmer compared to 
yesterday. Triple digit heat will occur across far southwest 
Oklahoma and far western North Texas. Would not be surprised if 
a location near Quanah Texas or Hollis Oklahoma reached 105 
degrees this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are expected. 


On Thursday...a weak cold front will bring slightly cooler 
air to the northern half of Oklahoma. Appears the air will too 
capped for any precipitation. Increased highs across the south 
half of Oklahoma and western North Texas. 00z nam12/European model (ecmwf) depicted 
very hot air over western North Texas with 925mb temperatures 
approaching 38c. If this pans out...cannot rule a high of 110 
degrees somewhere near Seymour and Vernon Texas. 


Friday through Saturday...kept a dry forecast for now...though 
slightly weaker capping may allow for a storm or two to develop 
over far western Oklahoma and far western North Texas during the 
late afternoon and evening hours. Appears temperatures will 
remain on the hot side and mainly in the 90s. 


Sunday through Tuesday...kept low rain chances during this time 
frame as a front may approach the area...though confidence is 
rather low. Above average temperatures will likely continue. 


Mbs 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 
Hobart OK 99 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 99 70 104 73 / 0 0 0 0 
gage OK 98 62 87 64 / 0 0 10 10 
Ponca City OK 92 69 89 69 / 0 0 10 10 
Durant OK 91 69 89 70 / 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...Wind Advisory from 11 am this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening 
for okz004>030-033>040-044-045. 


Texas...Wind Advisory from 11 am this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening 
for txz083>090. 


&& 


$$ 


23/17