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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 36 °
• Rain

• Monday
• 
• High: 45 °
• Low: 32 °
• Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 47 °
• Low: 31 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 47 °
• Low: 34 °
• Chance of Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 38 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Portland or 
216 PM PST sun Feb 12 2012 


Synopsis...middle level clouds continue to stream into the region ahead 
of an approaching Pacific frontal system. Light rain is beginning to 
spread onto the coast this afternoon and will continue to push 
onshore later this afternoon and evening. We will likely keep areas 
of rain and mountain snow showers across the district into at least 
the first half of Monday. Snow levels will be down into the higher 
elevations of the foothills and Coast Range 
with a couple inches of snow possible. A strong Pacific 
jet stream will likely push a series of frontal systems onshore into 
the middle- and late-week period. 


&& 


Short term...radar imagery from klgx coastal radar shows weak 
returns pushing into the S Washington and north Oregon coasts. 
Also...konp is beginning to show light rain. So looks like the 
current forecast timing is pretty much on track with the arrival of the 
approaching frontal system. Expect rain to continue pushing onshore 
this afternoon...eventually pushing inland during the late afternoon 
and early evening. Rainfall totals will likely be limited with this 
front as the upper level energy elongates...with the best forcing 
diving to the south into S Oregon and north California. The best 
precipitation should be during the evening hours tonight. 


As the main jet energy digs into California Sun night/early Monday... 
the upper low over California will become dominant. However as a 
secondary system moves into BC/WA...most models keep some deformation 
precipitation into Monday as we remain near the elongated upper 
trough axis. Will keep strong likely probability of precipitation early Monday...gradually 
decreasing through Monday evening. Snow levels will be fairly low...in 
the 1500-2500 feet range. However we only expect around 0.25 inch quantitative precipitation forecast 
so only a couple inches of snow are expected. 


Model consensus has continued to build that another upper level 
shortwave will dive south and develop into a closed low over the Pacific 
northwest on Tuesday. So after a brief period of drying...or perhaps a few 
scattered showers on Monday night and early Tuesday...widespread precipitation will 
return by around midday Tuesday. Snow levels expected to remain fairly 
low...in the 1500 to 2000 feet range. So the Cascades...as well as the 
higher elevations of the foothills and Coast Range should pick up a 
few more inches of snow. However...quantitative precipitation forecast totals again not that 
impressive...so do not expect advisory level snowfall at this time. 


The closed upper low is expected to dive south into California Tuesday 
night...with precipitation tapering off by early Wednesday as a brief period of 
upper ridging builds over the Pacific northwest. Jfp 


Long term...plenty of uncertainty remains in the extended forecast...as 
progressive split flow is expected to continue. However...the models 
are beginning to converge on a solution that brings another brief 
shot of rain on Thursday as a frontal system drives through the top of the 
ridge through BC/Washington. Going into the weekend...models again 
diverge. The one thing they can agree on is that we will continue to 
remain in a progressive winter time pattern...with the potential for 
a couple of systems to impact the Pacific northwest. Kept probability of precipitation above climatology 
through the weekend. Jfp 


&& 


Aviation....plenty of middle and high clouds over region. MVFR ceilings 
now pushing on the coast...along with areas of light rain/drizzle. 
Said conditions will spread further inland after 02z as fast 
moving front approaches. This front will push across region after 
09z with low conditions continuing. Should see showery drier 
weather after 10z...but MVFR clouds likely to remain. With gusty 
northwest winds...suspect ceilings will improve quickly to low VFR Monday am. 


Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions to continue this evening. 
However will see MVFR clouds increasing after 03z as precipitation 
spreads into area. MVFR clouds to remain overnight...but will see 
ceilings break up a bit after 16z Monday as northwest onshore flow increases. 
&& 


Marine...tranquil at the moment...but will see winds and seas 
increasing again later this afternoon into this evening as a fast 
moving front approaches. Appears that best gradient will be 
along the outer and south waters as the surface low tracks east 
across the north coastal waters tonight. With this...still put Gale 
Warning up for the outer S waters due to gusts of 30 to 35 knots. 
Otherwise little change in forecasts. Gusty northwest winds tonight into 
Monday...with winds easing on Monday afternoon. Seas 8 to 9 feet this 
am...and will build back to 10 feet early this evening...and then 12 
to 15 feet tonight and Monday as westerly swell train arrives. Rockey. 


&& 


Pqr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...none. 
Washington...none. 
Pz...Small Craft Advisory for winds for tonight through Monday 
afternoon on inner coastal waters...shore to 10 nm 
offshore from Cape Shoalwater to Florence and for the north 
outer waters from 10 to 60 nm offshore between Cape 
Shoalwater and Cascade Head. 


Gale Warning for tonight through 10 am for the south outer 
coastal waters...or from 10 to 60 nm offshore from Cascade 
Head to Florence. 


Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas for tonight through 
Tuesday on inner coastal waters...shore to 10 nm 
offshore from Cape Shoalwater to Florence and for the north 
outer waters from 10 to 60 nm offshore between Cape 
Shoalwater and Cascade Head. Small Craft Advisory for rough 
Columbia bar conditions for this evening...and for Monday 
through Tuesday. 


&& 


$$ 


More weather information online at... 
http://weather.Gov/Portland 


This discussion is for northwest Oregon and southwest Washington from 
the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is commonly 
referred to as the forecast area.