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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 61 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
851 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak front across northern New Jersey and Pennsylvania will 
dissipate today. Weak high pressure will build across the region 
today and remain through the weekend. A weak front will try to move 
down from New York state Saturday night before weakening. Another 
low and front will approach from the west Tuesday and Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
short term update mainly to adjust sky cover and lower probability of precipitation south 
where the fog and low clouds should at least temporarily offer 
some protection from earlier convection. 


It looks like a weak impulse will move northeast and across our area 
from the gradually weakening middle level low to our southwest. There 
is a bit of q-vector convergence and some frontogenesis to play 
with. Since the air will remain quite moist and become more unstable 
with time, we have maintained showers/thunderstorms in the forecast and 
have mentioned heavy downpours where we carry likely probability of precipitation (mainly 
near and northwest of the I-95 corridor). The is very little shear 
available, so the concern is more with the heavy downpours than any 
wind or large hail. We'll highlight this in the hwo, also. 


Temperatures were a guidance/continuity blend. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Thursday/... 
the middle level low is forecast to continue to weaken and drift toward 
our area through the short term. We may see daytime activity 
dissipate through the first part of tonight, but then see an uptick 
in activity toward daybreak if a simple correlation between 
proximity of the middle level system and probability of precipitation develops. Instability 
wanes overnight, but our taking of thunder out of the equation after 
midnight is more of a climatological call than one based on MUCAPES. 
The weak southeast flow should bring at least some fog back into the 
area. It should be rather muggy overnight. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
unsettled weather will remain across the area during much of the 
extended period. A weak upper low/trough will linger across the area 
Thu-Fri. This along with increasing heat and humidity will bring the 
possibility for scat showers/thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon and 
evening. A weak cold front moving down from the north later Sat will 
bring another chance for showers/thunderstorms then. Beyond that...a building 
area of high pressure across the Ohio and tenn valley region will 
bring scattered convection across the Great Lakes...which may be 
carried by the upper flow to our area. The details regarding the 
forecast beyond Sat were not changes much from the earlier forecast. The 
models will have a difficult time resolving the minor features which 
will trigger the showers/tstms. 


Temperatures will climb Thursday and into the weekend with above normal 
readings expected much of the time. The heat will also carry into 
Monday and perhaps Tuesday as the upper high builds just to our S/SW. 
Daytime readings will be well into the 80s with some low 90s 
possible Sat-Mon. The mex MOS was somewhat warmer with the guidance 
that the newly arrived ec MOS. It will be rather humid Thursday and into 
the weekend as well with dew points in the 60s and low 70s. 


&& 


Aviation /13z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, 
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


All but the three northernmost taf sites were IFR early this morning 
in both stratus and fog. Conditions will then improve to VFR 
during the course of the morning and early afternoon, but likely 
will deteriorate again tonight. The wind should be south to 
southeast at less than 10 knots. Regarding convection, we have 
left it out of the tafs for now, but we consider convection a 
decent bet to hit at least some of the taf sites from the Delaware 
valley northwest mainly from middle morning through the afternoon. 


Outlook... 
Thursday-Friday night...mostly VFR except during the overnight periods 
when fog and stratus may create occasional IFR. Scattered showers/thunderstorms 
Thursday and Friday afternoon may also bring lower conditions. 


Sat-sun...mostly VFR. Scattered showers/thunderstorms Sat and Sun 
afternoon and evening may bring lower conditions at times. 


&& 


Marine... 
swells have subsided to below 5 ft, and wavewatch guidance does not 
bring them up again through tonight. Winds are expected to be light 
from the south to southeast, and so the advisory has been cancelled. 


Outlook... 
mostly sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. The greatest hazard for the period will 
be scattered showers/thunderstorms with locally gusty winds possible. 


&& 


Rip currents... 
with a diminishing swell and a light wind, we are forecasting a low 
risk of rip currents today. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...O'Hara 
near term...delisi/gigi 
short term...delisi 
long term...O'Hara 
aviation...delisi 
marine...delisi 
rip currents...delisi