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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 76 °
• Low: 63 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 66 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA 
1110 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 


A broad upper level trough will remain over the eastern United 
States through the remainder of this week. A southwest flow of 
warmer and humid air will move in for Friday...and the above 
normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming Holiday 
weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 


Visual pictures show the low clouds starting to look more 
bumpy...implying we are destabilizing. Showers are already forming 
over Schuylkill County down to near Harrisburg. These are within 
a low level convergence zone associated with a very weak surface 
front. Storm Prediction Center mesoscale anal shows convective available potential energy already exceeding 1000j in this 
area where the sun is reaching the ground. 


The entire region remains under a large scale deformation zone on 
the north side of an upper low/trough over the Carolinas...and a light snow shower 
NE ridge from near Chicago into the northern gr lakes. We remain 
relatively humid with dewpoints in the upper 50s to middle 60s and 
precipitable water anomalies running between 1-2 Standard dev above normal. 


Remainder of the day will see showers/thunderstorms continue to 
Cook up. High res short range guidance suggests my southeastern zones 
will be the most likely place for widespread showers...but also 
shows the northwestern part of the forecast area becoming active. This lines up 
nicely where the water vapor images show a dry slot. 


Local slow moving heavy rainers will be possible again 
today...especially during the middle to late afternoon hours...especially 
within the axis of anomalously high precipitable water from scent Penn east-northeast 
across the lower susq valley. Will keep probability of precipitation in the high chance...to 
likely category across the southeast half of the County Warning Area today. Convective available potential energy should 
be slightly higher today /compared with Tuesday/...increasing the 
probability of a storm pulsing to strong to severe levels. 
Afternoon high temperatures will be mainly in the middle to upper 70s. The 
exception will be the higher terrain of the northwest mountains and laurels 
where the Mercury may top out in the lower 70s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/... 
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms and rain across the southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the 
County Warning Area will dissipate for the most part after 03z Thursday. 


Any clearing tonight will once again yield patchy fog /and stratus 
straddling the ridges/ thanks to continued moist...albeit 
light...southeasterly flow. 


Low temperatures early Thursday morning will range from the middle 50s across 
the northern and western mountains...to the lower 60s in the southeast. 


For Thursday...the surface boundary lifts north into central New 
York state as a slowly weakening area of low pressure aloft drifts 
north from the virginias. Increasing...south to southeasterly mean surface-850 
mb flow will support plenty of clouds and numerous showers and 
scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon over much of the region to 
the south of Interstate 80. Less numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms and rain will 
develop/advect north across the northern mountains of Penn during the 
afternoon and early evening hours. 


Maximum temperatures Thursday afternoon will increase by a few degree f relative 
to this afternoon/S. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
ec and GFS have been switching places on how far south the 
cold front ends up this weekend. Tried to keep forecast similar 
to the last few days...I.E. As consistent as possible. 


The other issue is I did up probability of precipitation a little for Friday. Both 
the NAM and GFS bring up more moisture now...although neither 
model prints out much quantitative precipitation forecast. 


For the weekend into early next week...went with fairly 
warm temperatures...and a mainly dry forecast. Even if the cold front 
moves south...it would not be much more than a wind shift 
line...given rising heights as we head into the later part 
of the weekend. Main chance of showers and storms would be from 
any mesoscale convective system dropping southeast. Will continue to look at the potential for 
this over the next few days. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
a broad upper level low will remain over the eastern United States 
through the remainder of the week. Daily rounds of showers...and 
scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will continue 
to affect central Pennsylvania through Thursday...in the vicinity 
of a stalled /and gradually weakening/ surface frontal boundary. 


Conditions at 12z are generally MVFR in both ceilings and visibilities as 
abundant low level moisture remains in place. Conds will improve 
to VFR by about 15z. By this afternoon...scattered to numerous 
showers and isolated thunderstorms will bring local reductions - mainly 
to the east of a line from kipt to kmrb /across the southern mountains 
and susq valley/. 


Precipitation becomes more isolated this evening before coming to an end 
by 03z. Clearing tonight will once again yield areas of fog /and 
stratus straddling the ridges/ as moist light southeasterly flow continues. 




Outlook... 
Wednesday night...VFR early...returning to MVFR/IFR after midnight in 
stratocu/fog. 
Thursday...primarily VFR. Scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain poss mainly southeast. 
Friday...primarily VFR. Isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain poss mainly southeast. 
Sat-sun...VFR. A chance of a rain showers or thunderstorms and rain across the north. 


&& 


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...la corte/Lambert 
near term...la corte/Lambert 
short term...Fitzgerald/Lambert 
long term...Lambert/Martin 
aviation...rxr