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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 55 °
• Fog

• Sunday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 59 °
• Fog

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
1026 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will develop east of New England late today through 
the end of the week. Developing southerly flow will bring 
increasing humidity along with a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms. Warmer weather will move in Saturday but with a 
continued threat of thunderstorms as a cold front approaches from 
the north. The front may stall near New England early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
10 am update... 
satellite shows some breaks in the clouds...mostly over the 
interior. Expect clouds and some breaks to continue through the 
day. Cape values in the 500-1000 j/kg range...a cold front across 
western and central sections...and breaks of sun. All of this 
points to potential this afternoon for scattered showers and 
possibly a thunderstorm. Weak wind field surface and aloft and 
precipitation water values around 1.5 inches...so likelihood would be for 
locally heavy downpours. 


Minor adjustments to temperatures from earlier forecast. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/... 
tonight...the cold front dissipates over the area with no change in 
the airmass expected. Weather tonight will be very similar to last 
night with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 and areas of fog and 
drizzle developing. The difference will be in where the fog sets 
up. With southerly winds...expect that the fog will be largely 
along the South Coast...possibly extending up into Rhode Island and 
southeast Massachusetts. 


Thursday...high pressure in the Maritimes will keep winds out of the 
south/southeast across southern New England. This keeps moist air 
moving into the region...resulting in more of the same sort of 
weather we have been having most of the week. There is enough 
instability in the area that if we see a few breaks of sun...diurnal 
showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop. However...expect 
mostly cloudy skies through the day. Again the greater threat here 
would be locally heavy rainfall as opposed to severe weather. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
highlights... 


* somewhat humid with chance showers/thunderstorms Thursday through Sat 
* continued unsettled into early next week as a front sets up near 
new eng 


Overview... 
weak middle level shortwave will lift across new eng during the end of 
the week which will lead to chance showers/tstms. As the disturbance 
exits...middle level ridge builds northward into the Great Lakes this weekend 
with southern New England on the edge of the polar jet. Warmer temperatures are likely by 
Saturday...but the proximity of the polar jet will make US 
susceptible to a frontal passage later in the weekend and some of 
the guidance suggests the boundary may eventually stall just S of 
New England into early next week which would result in a 
continuation of unsettled weather. However...forecast confidence is 
low from Sunday into early next week as models are not in agreement 
on where this boundary sets up/moves and probability of precipitation/temperature forecast will be 
largely dependent on the exact location of this boundary. We 
trended the forecast toward the European model (ecmwf) which is on the cooler and 
more unsettled side of the guidance. 


Thursday night into Friday... 
middle level shortwave lifts northward across the region so will continue 
with chance probability of precipitation. Left thunder out for Thursday night but included chance 
thunderstorms Friday as marginal surface based instability develops. Best chance for 
thunder will likely be confined to interior further removed from 
marine influence. Areas of low clouds and fog will likely develop 
Thursday night into Friday morning along the coast and clouds may linger all 
day Friday near the coast...but breaks of sunshine should develop 
during the afternoon in the interior. Used a blend of MOS and 
cooler bias corrected guidance for maximum temperatures. 


Saturday... 
rather warm day expected as SW flow develops ahead of a cold front 
dropping S from north new eng. 850 mb temperatures near 15c supports maxes 
into the middle/upper 80s away from the S coast...but cooler 70s near 
the S coast due to wind component off the cooler ocean. Decent 
surface based instability expected Sat with convective available potential energy 1000-2000 j/kg so 
will continue with chance showers/tstms. If thunderstorms do develop...severe 
weather will be possible as middle level jet moves in from the northwest 
with favorable 0-6km shear profiles. 


Sunday into Tuesday... 
low confidence forecast due to uncertainty of where the front will 
set up. It does appear the front will settle S of new eng Sunday... 
then it tries to move back as a warm front Mon/Tue. However this is 
not certain and it is entirely possible the front remains to the S 
per European model (ecmwf) solution. Will go with chance probability of precipitation early next week and 
trended temperatures cooler than mex guidance. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
forecaster confidence levels... 
low...less than 30 percent 
moderate...30 percent to 60 percent 
high...greater than 60 percent 


Mixed VFR/MVFR ceilings in the interior with VFR visibilities. MVFR ceilings 
in the coastal plain...IFR/LIFR over the cape and islands in fog 
and low clouds. Expect continued slow improvement during the 
afternoon. Moderate confidence. 


Weak gradient and southeast winds will bring low clouds/fog back 
tonight...especially near coast. Generally VFR conditions expected 
Thursday with lower conditions in any -shra/-tsra that develops. 


Kbos taf...moderate confidence. MVFR/VFR conditions during the 
afternoon...then conditions will fall back to IFR tonight. 


Kbdl taf...moderate confidence. Mixed VFR/MVFR ceilings this 
afternoon...but conditions fall back to MVFR/IFR tonight. 


Outlook...Thursday night though Sunday... 


Thursday night into Friday...moderate confidence. Areas of IFR 
stratus/fog developing...gradually lifting to VFR in the interior 
during Friday...but showers/thunderstorms possible Friday. IFR conditions 
redeveloping Friday night. 


Saturday...moderate confidence. Any early morning IFR lifting to 
VFR...but MVFR conditions possible in any thunderstorms. 


Sunday...low confidence. VFR/MVFR with low probability of a few 
showers. 


&& 


Marine... 
high confidence forecast for seas and winds. Southerly swell will 
slowly diminish through the period with seas dropping below 5 feet 
this evening. Light winds expected shifting slowly to the 
southeast. Small craft advisories for hazardous seas remain in 
place for the southerly outer waters for today. 


Outlook...Thursday night through Sunday... 


Moderate to high confidence that winds and seas will remain mostly 
below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the period. High confidence for areas 
of fog reducing visibilities for much of the period. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 3 PM EDT this 
afternoon for anz235-237. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this 
evening for anz250-254>256. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...kjc/rlg 
near term...wtb/rlg 
short term...rlg 
long term...kjc 
aviation...kjc/rlg 
marine...kjc/rlg