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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Fog

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston SC 
1040 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
a weak stationary front to our west will gradually dissipate 
by Thursday. High pressure will build north of the area through 
the weekend...while an inverted trough of low pressure will remain 
well offshore in the Atlantic. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
upper closed low over north central SC to shift north today and 
weaken leading to rising heights/warming temperatures aloft across 
southeast SC/GA. Meanwhile...drier middle-level air as seen on water 
vapor imagery across southeast Georgia will continue to rotate 
north toward southern SC. At the surface...a weak surface front 
across the midlands will remain there with the deeper moisture 
remaining confined to southern South Carolina...especially the 
Charleston tri-County area and this is where we think the best 
rain chances will be found this afternoon. Sunny skies to start 
will help push temperatures into the upper 80s most inland locales 
with some 90 degree readings possible near the Altamaha river away 
from the coast where the sea breeze will be late to reach. Rain 
chances look low overall but any storms that do fire up could 
become strong/possibly severe...mainly across southern SC north 
of Charleston where the greatest combination of instability and 
bulk shear is expected. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/... 
early evening convection should dwindle on the remnant sea breeze 
then mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected with lows in 
the 65-70 degree range. 


The weather for the end of the week will be dominated by a deep 
layered ridge that will develop north and west of the area. An area 
or two of low pressure may develop on an inverted trough in the 
southwest Atlantic...but I have thrown out the NAM solution of 
hooking a wave back toward the tri County area. That will keep the 
area mainly dry...and temperatures will increase to a few degrees above 
normal. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday night through Tuesday/... 
there is a little bit of uncertainty this period as models have 
differing details on how strong the surface ridge will hold and how 
close the inverted trough will get to the forecast area as it backs 
westward toward Florida. For now I have gone with a gradual increase 
in rain chances Sunday through Tuesday...but I could see a scenario 
where we stay dry as well if the ridge holds on. Temperatures should 
generally be near to a touch above normal. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
VFR at both tafs through 12z/24. Thunderstorm chances today not high 
enough at this time to include thunder in the tafs but will need 
to watch the sea breeze after 18z today for isolated thunderstorms. 


Extended aviation outlook...VFR away from isolated convection. 


&& 


Marine... 
quieter times over the waters through tonight with another surge 
of southerly flow late today and tonight producing brief bouts of 
15g20 knots flow. Seas generally 2-4 feet through tonight. 


Southeast winds on Thursday will back to the east and 
northeast on Friday as the surface ridge builds to the north and 
west. Speeds will be 15 knots or less through Friday. 


By Saturday...winds begin to increase as pressures lower a bit in 
the southwest Atlantic. Seas will build some as well...but I am 
still holding the winds and seas just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. My biggest 
concern area is the offshore Georgia waters...which will be closest 
to the developing wave...and they may need to be upgraded to Small Craft Advisory 
criteria by Saturday night. However...I dont have enough confidence 
to go that high yet. 


&& 


Chs watches/warnings/advisories... 
Georgia...none. 
SC...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis... 
near term...rjb 
short term...alsheimer 
long term...alsheimer 
aviation... 
marine...alsheimer