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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 52 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 48 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 52 °
• T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota 
637 am CDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Update... 
aviation discussion has been updated for the 12z taf issuance. 


&& 
Previous discussion... 
short term...today through Friday 


Main forecast challenge is precipitation chances through the 
short term period. 


The upper trough will continue its eastward progression across 
southern Canada...bringing several waves of energy across the 
region. This morning...shower and thunderstorm activity will 
continue ahead of the cold front. The cold front will be close to 
exiting the County Warning Area but...with additional synoptic support...showers 
and thunderstorms may be possible along the southeast County Warning Area in the 
afternoon and evening. 


Another round of energy and a surface boundary will influence the 
region on Thursday. A saturated atmosphere and Omega values 
ranging from 8 to 12 -ubar/S will result in showers throughout the 
day. 


The upper trough finally kicks out on Friday...followed by a 
brief period of ridging. This is short lived however as the ridge 
is quickly replaced by another long wave trough entering the 
western Continental U.S.. chances for deformation induced precipitation exist 
in between systems on Saturday. 


Temperatures will remain near normal for Wednesday and Thursday...and 
slightly cooler for Friday and Saturday. 


Long term...Friday night through Tuesday 


The latest long range models are now beginning to converge on a 
solution for the weekend. Strong western Continental U.S. Middle level trough is 
expected to lift northeast into Canada late in the weekend. A surface 
warm front initially over the Central Plains will begin lifting 
north Friday night through Saturday night. Meanwhile an induced 
and consolidated surface low is expected to move northeast across 
the County Warning Area late Saturday night and Sunday. The European model (ecmwf) is about 12 
hours slower than the GFS/gefs and gets a fair amount of support 
from the Gem/UKMET concerning the slower solution. Broad 
overrunning/warm air advection situation will be in place north of the warm front 
so precipitation chances look pretty decent for Friday night through 
Saturday night. Sunday may also prove somewhat active depending 
upon how fast the low/front move through. Temperatures will start 
out below normal for the first half of the weekend but then should 
trend to above normal for Sunday as the warm front moves north of 
the area. A bit of a cool down is then expected for Memorial Day. 


&& 


Aviation... 
12z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals 


VFR conditions are expected through today but with isolated to 
scattered showers...particularly this afternoon around Katy. Winds 
will generally favor west to northwest at all taf sites by noon. 


&& 


Abr watches/warnings/advisories... 
South Dakota...none. 
Minnesota...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Update...tdk 
short term...serr 
long term...tdk 
aviation...tdk 


Weather.Gov/Aberdeen