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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 57 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee 
1000 am EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Discussion...minor changes with morning update. Lowered 
temperatures and dew points across northern areas. Raised probability of precipitation 
across NE areas where low level convergence looks favorable for this 
afternoon. Son 


Previous discussion: 
short term (today and tonight)...an upper low will slowly lift 
northeastward across the Carolinas today. Rotation around this low 
will carry is isolated to scattered convection into the mrx County Warning Area 
during the short term. Morning activity should be showers and 
remain generally over northern and eastern locations. As the air 
mass becomes weakly unstable during the afternoon...a few 
thunderstorms are possible across the area. Cloud cover will help 
keep temperatures near normal for today. The low will slowly begin 
to pull away from the region overnight with any lingering convection 
ending from west to east. 


Long term (thursday through tuesday)...upper low and associated 
moisture will be located across the central Appalachians Thursday 
keeping a chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms going 
for southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Dry elsewhere. 


For Friday through Monday...upper ridging across the southern 
Appalachians and southeast United States will produce a very 
warm/hot period over the area with limited chances of convection. 
However...forecast soundings do show enough moisture and instability 
to keep chances of afternoon/evening storms for the higher terrain 
beginning Saturday and continue through early next week. Some of 
these thunderstorms could move into the valley during the early 
evening hours. Main story again will be the Summer-like heat with 
highs in the lower 90s. 


For Tuesday...upper ridging weakens allowing a front to approach the 
area. Due to weakening ridge...will include chance probability of precipitation area-wide. 


Generally followed GFS MOS numbers closely through the period. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 83 61 89 63 92 / 20 10 10 10 10 
Knoxville Airport, Tennessee 78 60 86 62 90 / 40 20 10 10 10 
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 79 60 87 62 91 / 30 20 10 10 10 
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 76 56 84 56 90 / 50 30 30 10 10 


&& 


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Mjb/dh