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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 99 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 97 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 102 °
• Low: 72 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 100 °
• Low: 75 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee 
1026 am CDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Update... 


No updates to the forecast are planned at this time. 


&& 


Discussion... 


An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen over 
the middle south. Sunny skies and warmer temperatures into the low to 
middle 80s can be expected by this afternoon with comfortable 
humidity levels. The current forecast handles the situation well 
and no updates are planned at this time. 


Jlh 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 226 am CDT Wednesday may 23 2012/ 


A cool may night across the midsouth with temperatures mainly in 
the 50s as of 2am. Winds were either light and variable or calm... 
with only a few clouds tracking southeast across north 
Mississippi. 


The combination of both weak surface high pressure and a weak 
upper level flow will bring a near average day across the 
area...with mostly sunny skies...light winds and continued 
pleasant humidities. Temperatures will be in the low to middle 80s. 


Thursday through Monday...models continue to agree that heights 
will build northeastward from Mexico and Texas during this period 
with the jet stream staying well to the north. Temperatures are 
expected to climb into the low and middle 90s...with dewpoints in the 
60s returning on southerly winds. Thursday will be a transition 
day as models show a cold front becoming stationary from central 
Illinois back to western Oklahoma...where it will connect to a 
leeside low. Southerly flow will increase throughout the day with 
Wind Advisory criteria possible west of the MS river by late 
morning. Convection along the frontal boundary in Missouri 
Thursday night may throw additional cloud cover across the 
northern midsouth counties...however any precipitation for that 
area seems none. 


A 592dm high center will develop overhead on Friday and persist 
through Monday. Strong subsidence will diminish wind speeds throughout 
the column as well as increase high temperatures to the middle 90s. 
Thus...records will likely be either tied or broken. Lows will 
also start to warm up with several locations seeing 70 degrees or 
above. Heat indices may climb into the upper 90s for a few hours 
during the afternoon...but remain below heat advisory criteria. A 
few more high clouds are expected on Monday as the ridge begins to 
weaken/breakdown. 


Monday night through Wednesday morning...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) 
indicate the ridge becoming further suppressed as the northern jet 
becomes more active. Rain chances over the area will increase but 
only slightly as shortwaves cross the corn belt. Highs will cool 
somewhat with readings closer to 90f. 


Jab 


&& 


Aviation... 


12z taf cycle (23/12z-24/12z) 


VFR conditions will continue through the period. Light winds 
becoming S 5-9 kts after 15z...then southeast-S 8 kts or less after 
24/01z. 


Jcl 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mem 85 65 91 72 / 0 0 10 10 
mkl 84 58 90 68 / 0 0 10 10 
jbr 84 62 90 69 / 0 0 10 10 
tup 85 60 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 


&& 


Meg watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
MO...none. 
MS...none. 
Tennessee...none. 
&& 


$$