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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 9:11 PM CST on February 12, 2012

  Through 11 PM...patchy sprinkles or very light rain will continue to spread across southeast Texas and into the border parishes of southwest Louisiana. A little sleet may mix in with the rain at times...mainly north of Highway 12...but will not stick with temperatures currently running in the 40s in most locations. Hourly precipitation accumulations will be just a few hundredths of an inch at most. Over the coastal waters...patchy light rain will move into the waters west of Cameron out to 60 nautical miles.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 49 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 56 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 74 °
• Low: 58 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 49 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 47 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
930 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Update...shortwave generating some light rain or sprinkles over 
southeast Texas. Sufficient wet bulbing has cooled the low levels 
sufficiently for sleet development. Have received several sleet 
reports over the last few minutes.. have updated zones through the 
remainder of the evening for slight chance of r-ip- over southeast 
Texas...and have extended activity into southwest Louisiana. All 
else looks on track. Update already out. 


&& 


Marcotte 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 424 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion... 
large cloud shield noted on satellite this afternoon across much 
of Texas and the northwestern Gulf. This cloud cover is expected 
to push into the area overnight tonight as high pressure which has 
been in centered just to our north begins to slide to the east. 
This should serve to mitigate radiational cooling tonight and 
overnight lows are expected to be about ten degrees warmer than 
they were last night. 


A weak cold front will approach the area tomorrow bringing 
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings 
indicate strong low level directional shear across the area during 
this time but very weak instability should strongly limit strong 
thunderstorm activity. Therefore did not mention this in the zones. 
Nonetheless...an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be 
completely ruled out. 


Behind the front winds will turn briefly out of the north before 
swinging quickly back to the south late Tuesday night ahead of 
another approaching front. 


Thursday and Friday look to be dry as high pressure builds across 
the area behind the front. 


The weekend is still somewhat up in the air at this point. 
Forecast models indicate the development of a surface low over the 
western Gulf which is expected to move to the north northeast but 
are in disagreement as to the timing and exact motion of the low. 
The faster European keeps the low further south as it moves 
across the northern Gulf on Saturday while the slower GFS brings 
the system near the coast during the day Sunday. Kept low end probability of precipitation 
for much of the weekend and will wait for additional clarity. 


Marine... 
as high pressure to the north continues to slide to the east winds 
will diminish slightly but breezy conditions will continue 
through the evening. A cold front will approach from the west on 
Monday tightening the pressure gradient across the area once again. 
Speeds of 20-25 knots sustained can be expected with higher 
gusts. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Monday. In 
addition...showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the 
area during the day on Monday. Behind the front...winds will turn 
briefly out of the north before southerly flow returns Tuesday 
evening ahead of the next front. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 39 61 53 71 54 / 20 90 60 10 10 
kbpt 43 62 52 72 56 / 20 90 40 10 10 
kaex 34 55 48 66 48 / 10 90 60 10 10 
klft 36 61 56 72 54 / 10 50 90 10 10 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am Monday to 1 am CST Tuesday for 
the following zones: waters from Intracoastal City to 
Cameron la from 20 to 60 nm...waters from lower Atchafalaya 
River to Intracoastal City la from 20 to 60 nm. 


Small craft exercise caution until midnight CST tonight for the 
following zones: waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron 
la from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Cameron la to High Island 
Texas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from lower Atchafalaya River 
to Intracoastal City la from 20 to 60 nm. 


Small Craft Advisory from 10 am to 8 PM CST Monday for the 
following zones: coastal waters from Cameron la to High 
Island Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters from Intracoastal City 
to Cameron la out 20 nm...coastal waters from lower 
Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City la out 20 nm... 
waters from Cameron la to High Island Texas from 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$