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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 3:59 am CST on February 13, 2012

  Widespread light rain and drizzle will continue across all of south Texas through the night. Rainfall accumulations will be minor tonight...a few hundredths of an inch. Additional rain is expected through this morning.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 58 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 65 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 56 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
439 am CST Monday Feb 13 2012 


Short term (today through tuesday)...isolated showers beginning 
to develop in far western County Warning Area this morning with widespread light 
rain and drizzle elsewhere. Will expect showers to become dominant 
precipitation Mode later this morning. Feel that thunderstorm chance 
although low for most of the area will exist primarily in east and 
northeast portion of forecast area. Best Omega indicated around 
the Victoria Crossroads area...with NAM also showing a bit of a 
vorticity maximum in this area between 12 and 18z. Upper level jet 
currently to the north of the area will shift south and east a bit 
with the right rear region over eastern part of the forecast area 
through the morning hours. Any thunderstorms that do develop 
should be elevated. Vertical profiles dry out very quickly from 
west to east late morning and through the afternoon. Despite some 
models indicating a continuing isentropic upslope flow into the 
afternoon will see an end to precipitation quickly with decreasing middle 
and upper level moisture. With clearing skies late this evening 
and lingering low level moisture and light winds will expect fog 
to develop after midnight. Mav guidance showing widespread fog for 
most of the area...except far west. Temperatures should fall into 
the upper 40s and lower 50s. Quiet weather then on tap for Tuesday 
with high pressure shifting over the area. By late in the day 
Tuesday southeast winds will begin to increase leading to an 
increase in dewpoints as a surface low develops near the Texas 
Panhandle. 


&& 


Long term (tuesday night through sunday)...the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian 
deterministic solutions appear to converge with respect to the 500mb 
pattern. The models forecast an upper disturbance to move across the Southern 
Plains/northern Texas Wednesday. Expect this system to combine with 
increasing moisture (associated with onshore flow) to generate 
isolated/scattered convection along and in advance of the corresponding cold 
front. Thunder possible over the northestern County Warning Area owing to sufficient cape (gfs 
sounding) and closer to the rrq of an upper jet streak. The front is 
forecasted to move offshore by Wednesday night and result in wind near 
the Small Craft Advisory category over the coastal waters by Thursday. The models 
then forecast another upper disturbance to approach the County Warning Area Friday 
night. This system is expected to generate primarily light rain/ 
shower activity Friday night/Saturday. Despite the strong upper jet 
forecasted to provide additional synoptic scale lift...not even elevated 
thunder anticipated based on the GFS sounding. (The European model (ecmwf)/GFS forecast a 
surface trough near the coast south of bro late Thursday/Friday then 
moves it east Saturday in response to the foregoing upper 
disturbance. Thus...a persistent northeast/north flow is expected 
over the coastal waters after the frontal passage Thursday through early 
Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated for Saturday.) 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 69 54 77 65 77 / 60 0 10 20 20 
Victoria 66 47 77 62 76 / 90 10 10 20 40 
Laredo 70 51 81 64 83 / 20 0 0 20 20 
Alice 70 51 79 64 79 / 50 0 10 20 20 
Rockport 67 58 68 64 72 / 80 10 10 20 30 
Cotulla 68 47 79 62 79 / 30 0 0 20 20 
Kingsville 71 54 79 65 78 / 50 0 10 20 20 
Navy corpus 68 59 68 64 73 / 70 0 10 20 20 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following 
zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 
20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship 
Channel out 20 nm...waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Pz/83...short term 
wc/87...long term