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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 8:50 PM CST on February 12, 2012

  An area of light to moderate snow will move east at 30 mph across the eastern Texas Panhandle this evening. Through 11 PM...the heaviest snow will fall east and south of a line from Hedley to Miami to Higgins. Additional snowfall accumulations of one to two inches will be common across the southeast Texas Panhandle with a few areas receiving close to five inches for a storm total. Motorists are advised to use extreme caution as the snow accumulates quickly on roadways due to the sub-freezing temperatures over the past two days. Numerous vehicle accidents have been reported on area roadways due to the slick conditions.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 22 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 58 °
• Low: 27 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 52 °
• Low: 22 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 20 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 25 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas 
1048 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Update... 
adjusted probability of precipitation...low temperatures...winds...and highs for Monday. 


&& 


Discussion... 
although most of the precipitation has exited the area...there are 
some isolated echoes showing up on radar across the southeast Texas 
Panhandle. Based on these trends...lowered probability of precipitation significantly across 
the area and confined them mainly to the southeast. Laps data and 
RUC analysis soundings indicate a warm nose between 800-725 mb has 
pushed into this area with maximum temperatures in the melting layer between 1 
and 2 c. Therefore...added mention of snow/sleet mixture through 2 
am. However...any additional accumulations of sleet and/or snow are 
expected to be less than one half inch. 


Regarding the remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory...will let it 
continue to play out through 12 am...despite not expecting much more 
in the way of accumulations. Phone calls to emergency managers and 
sheriff/S offices in the advisory area and where snow fell today 
indicate roads are very slick. Therefore...the advisory is 
being allowed to continue based on impact...but we will allow the 
advisory to expire at 12 am. Rather than extending the 
advisory....we have issued an Special Weather Statement for areas that received snowfall 
today to highlight the potential for hazardous driving conditions 
through Monday morning due to the slick roads. 


Surface pressure gradient has remained tight and low-level jet has 
increased across the area. As a result...expect S/SW winds to stay 
up tonight and occasionally be gusty. With southwesterly winds 
remaining up...expect overnight temperatures to actually rise 
slightly toward sunrise. Therefore...we raised temperatures for the 
overnight period. 


We still think some patchy freezing fog will develop...but we still 
have low confidence on the duration and magnitude of the freezing 
fog. Have seen visibilities decrease at Amarillo and Hereford 
within the last hour...and think this trend will expand in coverage 
through late tonight. As winds become more southwesterly towards 
sunrise...it/S possible this may allow the freezing fog to dissipate. 
Not expecting any dense freezing fog issues...but will continue to 
monitor closely. 


Also lowered highs significantly below guidance for Monday. MOS highs 
across the southeast half of the forecast area look way too warm with 
1-5 inches of snow on the ground. However... 


Jackson 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 730 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Update... 
cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for 
Beaver...Ochiltree...Hansford...and Moore counties. 


Discussion... 
phone calls across the northeast and northern part of the Winter 
Weather Advisory indicate very light snowfall amounts and roads are 
in good shape. Therefore...decided to cancel the advisory ahead of 
its expiration time. Left the advisory in the far southwest where 
roads remain very slick due to snowcover. Updated products have been 
sent. 


Jackson 


Previous discussion... /issued 538 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Aviation... 
light snow will affect kama for the next few hours...but should not 
have much of an impact at northern terminals. MVFR ceilings and 
visibilities expected to prevail this evening at kama...where snow 
cover will promote production of br. By 06z Monday...IFR ceilings 
with MVFR visibilities expected at kama...with similar conditons 
developing around 09z Monday at kdht. Kguy expected to have MVFR 
ceilings and vilsibilities develop around 09z Monday. Southwest and 
west surface winds develop by sunrise...with clearing expected around 
14z Monday at all terminals...with VFR conditions prevailing 
thereafter. 


Cockrell 


Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion... 
several bands of snow continue to move across the panhandles this 
afternoon as additional snowfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will 
be possible on top of the 1 to 3 inches already reported. Current 
Winter Weather Advisory looks to be in good shape and no changes are 
planned at this time. The heaviest bands of snow will impact the 
southern Texas Panhandle over the next few hours before lifting off 
to the northeast. Travel has been reported as extremely hazardous 
along Interstate 40 and travel is discouraged. 


Snow will taper off later this evening from southwest to northeast. 
Development of freezing fog is possible especially after midnight 
where snow cover remains but confidence is somewhat low. Low 
temperatures tonight will not budge too much from current 
temperatures and fall only a few more degrees tonight. 


A rapid warm up can be expected on Monday as the upper level 
disturbance that brought the snow exits the area. Skies will slowly 
clear by Monday afternoon...but with snow cover on the ground...high 
temperatures will only reach the middle 40s to lower 50s. As a 
result...have undercut guidance numbers by several degrees with 
exception of the far northwestern portions of the forecast area. 


By Tuesday...a surface low will develop just west of the panhandles 
allowing strong southwest winds to develop. With ample warm air 
advection...high temperatures will soar well into the 50s and even 
60s across the area. This same low will begin moving across the 
northern panhandles Tuesday night and Wednesday as an upper level low 
approaches from the west. Most short range models show precipitation 
developing north and east of the panhandles so have kept the area dry 
during this time frame. As the surface low and upper trough move 
east...high pressure will build over the region. Seasonal normals can 
be expected Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 50s and lows in 
the 20s. 


Friday and beyond...another upper level low and trough will develop 
across the southwest U.S. But is expected to stay well south of the 
area. As a result...have kept the forecast dry for now and expect 
temperatures at or above normals with highs approaching the 60s for 
the weekend. 


Kns 


Fire weather... 
relative humidity values will remain well above 20 percent Monday and 
Tuesday. Elevated or critical fire weather conditions are not expected 
at this time. 


Kns 


&& 


Ama watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the 
following zones: Collingsworth...Donley...gray...Hemphill... 
Wheeler. 


OK...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Jc/jj