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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 8:27 PM CST on February 12, 2012

  Rain...sleet...and snow is occurring across most of North Texas. Light accumulations of sleet and snow are possible on grass and elevated surfaces. Temperatures along and east of the I-35 corridor are above freezing and accumulations are brief and are melting. To the west of I-35...more substantial accumulations are occurring because temperatures are below freezing. Accumulations of an inch or so of snow and sleet is possible primarily to the northwest of a line from Comanche to Weatherford to Denton.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 47 °
• Low: 36 °
• Ice Pellets

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 49 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 40 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 32 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 56 °
• Low: 38 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
730 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Update... 
mixed precipitation (ra/sn/pl) continues spreading northward 
across the County Warning Area. Frozen precipitation is reaching the surface with 
temperatures above 40f. With dew points in the teens...temperatures 
quickly fall as precipitation begins. Where precipitation has persisted... 
evaporative cooling has been exhausted...but temperatures in western 
zones have fallen below freezing during the process. Have expanded 
the Winter Weather Advisory to include Erath...Comanche...Mills... 
and Hamilton. Accumulation in this area has been under an inch... 
but impacts to travel have been reported with temperatures 30 t0 
32f. Outside of the advisory area...some light accumulations will 
be possible but limited to grass and elevated surfaces. Melting 
should be effective overnight...as surface temperatures climb 
above freezing and precipitation transitions to rain with warming aloft. 


25 


&& 


Aviation... 
band of light snow/sleet will be arriving into the metroplex tafs 
just after 6pm/0z...and looks to persist through the next several 
hours based on radar extrapolation and short-term model forecasts. 
Still believe surface temperatures will stay above freezing tonight at 
taf sites despite the frozen precipitation falling...but this will be 
watched closely. Due to low level warm advection and exhausting of 
available dry air for phase change cooling...precipitation type will 
change over to more light rain/sleet after midnight...and should 
be all rain before 10z. Airport weather warning is out and 
contains more specific information for operational interest at 
dfw. For Waco light snow/sleet expected for a couple more 
hours...but transition to sleet/rain should occur by 4z...with all 
rain expected after midnight. 


Otherwise VFR ceilings are expected during the evening hours...but 
should become MVFR after midnight/6z with increasing warm/moist 
advection as low level jet intensifies. Will bring them down to 
IFR by sunrise as column completely saturates. Rain is expected 
to continue through the morning hours before ending by midday. 
Ceilings will hang around in the MVFR category into the afternoon. 
Some clearing may occur by sunset Monday...but if this occurs fog 
would become likely. 


Tr.92 




&& 






Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 
..a mixed bag of sleet...Snow...and rain to occur across western 
and northern North Texas heading into tonight and early Monday.. 


A lead upper disturbance that moved out of Mexico this morning is 
acting as a primer for a wet and sloppy night to come. Air mass 
continues to be cold and dry over North Texas this afternoon...though 
top-down saturation is occurring in advance of the lead shortwave 
with some very light sleet and along and southwest of a Goldthwaite 
to Gatesville to Cameron line as of 2 PM. This activity will 
overspread North Texas during the evening hours with some mixed 
light rain...sleet or snow expected over particularly the higher 
terrain of western North Texas. Warm air advection and strong lift will ensue 
overnight with low level jet near 50 kts. Surface temperatures are between 
35 and 45 degrees across the County Warning Area and may initially cool down close 
to freezing later this evening with wet bulb effect from drier 
air down low. However...it is expected for low level temperatures 
to remain steady or even warm overnight with the aforementioned 
warm air advection expected. 


Determining precipitation types continue to be very difficult 
this afternoon and have followed a blend of the WRF/sref/and NAM 
models for the short term forecast. We have expanded the Winter Weather 
Advisory to include areas down to a 
Ranger...Weatherford...Denton... McKinney...Paris line for now 
where our highest confidence exists for 1-2 inches of sleet or 
snow accumulation. Ground temperatures remain well above freezing 
and we think the main impacts south of the advisory area will be 
grassy areas and elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. 
The evolution of the system and environment will continue to be 
evaluated this evening with possible modifications to the current 
advisory. We will issue a Special Weather Statement to include areas 
from Comanche and Stephenville...to dfw...to Sulphur Springs for 
more minor accumulations and potential for a few problems toward 
morning. Again...the scenario and advisory area will be re- 
evaluated tonight. 


The base of the main upper disturbance moves overhead Monday. Southeast 
winds will increase...and we expect all precipitation to be a cold 
rain with ensuing warm air advection. Steeper lapse rates within the core of the 
disturbance will likely lend to some elevated thunderstorms on 
Monday and the possibility of some small hail due to the very low 
freezing levels expected above the surface. This system moves east 
into the arklatex/lower Mississippi Valley by late afternoon and 
will pull a surface trough with dry west and southwest flow into 
the area with clearing and warmer conditions. 


A dry and warmer period will occur Tuesday into Wednesday with Lee 
cyclogenesis increasing out west ahead of our next upper 
disturbance. Sunshine and breezy south winds will result in above 
normal temperatures into the 60s and 70s. Will maintain low 
chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night through 
Wednesday evening...though do not expect quality of moisture 
return to be good enough for any severe weather potential. 


A cold front moves in Thursday morning and will result in cooler 
and brisk conditions for the end of the week...but not Arctic in 
nature like the current air mass. Highs will be mainly in the 50s. 
Shortwave ridging early next weekend will lend to warmer highs in 
the 60s/70s once again with shot of rain/thunderstorms late next 
weekend as the progressive storm track continues across the 
region. 


05/ 






&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 37 50 40 62 54 / 80 70 5 5 20 
Waco, Texas 36 56 39 68 56 / 70 70 5 5 20 
Paris, Texas 33 43 38 57 45 / 70 70 20 10 20 
Denton, Texas 34 49 35 61 50 / 80 60 5 5 20 
McKinney, Texas 34 45 34 58 49 / 70 70 10 5 20 
Dallas, Texas 38 50 40 62 54 / 80 70 5 5 20 
Terrell, Texas 35 46 39 63 51 / 70 70 10 5 20 
Corsicana, Texas 38 49 41 64 54 / 70 70 10 5 20 
Temple, Texas 36 58 40 72 56 / 70 60 5 5 20 
Mineral Wells, Texas 33 58 36 62 46 / 80 50 5 5 20 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am CST Monday for txz091>095- 
100>104-115>117-129-130-141>143. 




&& 


$$ 


92/25