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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 34 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 34 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 29 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 34 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 34 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
215 PM MST sun Feb 12 2012 


Synopsis... 
the wintry mix of weather will end later this evening...as the 
strong upper level low heads east out of The Rockies. Colder air 
left in place behind the low will keep temperatures below normal 
to start the work week. For remainder of the week...a series of 
storm systems will affect the region bringing increases in winds 
and more unsettled weather for US. Temperatures will warm near or 
above normal...except middle week...when our next system is expected. 


&& 


Discussion... 
analysis depicts the well advertised upper level low pressure 
system is beginning to move through The Four Corners at this 
time. Trough has continued to carry embedded shortwave 
disturbances through central and southern New Mexico...with the 
last one expected to move through early this evening. GFS...NAM 
and European model (ecmwf) share good agreement in timing last wave through and 
this feature is now visible heading into northwest portions of 
Grant County Arkansas this time. Development of enhanced shower activity 
with embedded storms over Grant and western Sierra counties...is good 
evidence of its arrival. Given this trend...believe it is a good 
idea to continue with Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 8 PM 
this evening as this wave moves through. Light snow/blowing 
snow...mixed with ice pellets in some spots...remain main forms of 
precipitation early this evening east of the Rio Grande. 


Drier westerly winds will warm temperatures a few degrees 
Monday...however highs will still remain a few degrees below 
normal as colder air remains in place for a day behind our 
exiting low. 


Flow aloft turns west-southwesterly ahead of another low pressure 
system due in through The Four Corners middle week. 12z GFS appears 
drier and more progressive by ~6 hours compared with 
European model (ecmwf)...however both continue to indicate a breezy to windy day 
area wide Tuesday...as this feature approaches. Given past persistence 
with majority of model solutions being more pessimistic with 
forecasts compared to reality...am leaning towards drier GFS 
predictions for our weather middle week. As such...have kept with 
inherited forecast package with slight chance probability of precipitation for Gila and 
Sacramento Mountains for that time. 


Another system remains forecast to bring at least slight chances 
of precipitation to our area next week...with significant 
differences in model outcomes as one might expect. Feature remains 
forecast as cut off feature by all popular models...however successive 
runs of GFS model last few days...have been to carry track of low 
slightly further south into Mexico. This has been its trend with 
with past systems in our split flow regime...thus have kept 
mention of slight chance probability of precipitation for this event. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 13/00z-14/00z. 
VFR conds generally expected through period with few-sct080-100 except 
isolated -shra bkn020-030 mainly along and east of the Rio Grande through 
03z. Winds will be shifting around to the west at all terminals by 06z 
at around 10kts with periods of 27017g27kt possible at kelp from 
04z-08z. West winds will increase to 15g25kts again around 18z. 




&& 


Fire weather... 
a series of storm systems will be affecting the region over the 
upcoming week. A dry...breezy and warmer day is expected for Monday 
ahead of the next system which will be affecting the region Tuesday 
afternoon into early Wednesday with mainly mountain snow showers. 
Windy conditions are also expected Tuesday with this system but dew 
points will remain high enough to keep minimum relative humidities 
above 20 percent. Another break in the weather is expected for late 
Wednesday into Thursday before a stronger storm system dives into 
Baja California and moves east through northern Mexico. Mountain snow and 
valley rain showers are possible with this system. Temperatures 
through much of the upcoming week are expected to be near to 
slightly below normal. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 38 60 40 65 41 / 20 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 34 60 39 63 40 / 30 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 34 62 36 66 36 / 20 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 32 60 38 64 37 / 30 0 0 10 10 
Cloudcroft 21 40 24 43 20 / 30 10 0 10 20 
Truth or Consequences 30 60 33 63 33 / 20 0 0 10 10 
Silver City 30 48 32 51 31 / 20 0 10 10 10 
Deming 28 59 31 62 32 / 20 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 31 55 32 59 31 / 10 0 0 10 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for nmz024- 
025. 


Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for txz056. 


&& 


$$ 


22/26 
Tripoli/grzywacz