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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 2:28 am CST on February 13, 2012

  A mix of rain and snow continues across North Texas tonight. Some sleet has also been reported...but the sleet remains isolated in nature. Most of the rain/snow mix is occurring north of a line from Stephenville to Dallas to Sulphur Springs. South of this line...all rain was being reported. Little snow accumulations may continue to occur generally north of a line from Decatur to Sulphur Springs through daybreak. However...most of this snow is expected to melt as the rain/snow mix transitions to all rain before daybreak. Otherwise...rainfall totals will be minimal with most locations receiving only a few hundredths through daybreak. Temperatures across the region ranged from 32 degrees to the lower 40s. Temperatures will continue to warm through the overnight hours and thus only very minor impacts from any winter precipitation is expected. Light icing was reported on a few rural roads near the Red River and motorists are still urged to use caution through the morning hours.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 45 °
• Low: 34 °
• Ice Pellets

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 58 °
• Low: 47 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 38 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 32 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 56 °
• Low: 38 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
425 am CST Monday Feb 13 2012 


Discussion... 
a mix of winter precipitation will be on the decrease across North Texas 
this morning as low level warm air advection continues. A band of 
moderate to heavy precipitation will continue to move east of the 
Interstate 35 corridor...but a final wave of lighter precipitation 
near the upper trough will move across North Texas later this 
morning/through this afternoon. A weak surface low... currently 
centered northwest of Corpus Christi...will partially hinder the 
low level moisture return across North Texas so a mix of 
sleet...snow and rain will still be possible across the northern 
zones through sunrise or a bit after. We have trimmed the 
west/southwest zones out of the advisory since the winter precipitation 
has ended there but will leave the north/northeast zones in the 
advisory for the next couple of hours as temperatures hover around 
freezing and some precipitation continues. We will most likely 
trim or end the advisory before 7 am if current trends continue. 
The precipitation should change to all liquid before midday and 
end from west to east through the afternoon with the passing upper 
trough. Middle level lapse rates near the upper trough could support 
an elevated thunderstorm or two so will leave isolated storms 
mentioned. 


Brief ridging aloft is expected tonight and Tuesday ahead of 
another approaching upper trough. Energy from this system... 
coupled with increasing low level moisture...will bring a chance 
of showers and thunderstorms to North Texas late Tuesday night and 
Wednesday. The best chance of storms will be in the east/southeast 
Wednesday. A few strong storms will be possible as surface based 
cape approaches 1000 j/kg. All storms will move east of the region 
Wednesday evening as the upper trough axis moves east of the 
region and dry air moves in behind a Pacific cold front. 


Another upper trough is prognosticated to develop in the west late in the 
week and approach North Texas on the weekend. The extended models 
disagree on the track of this system and on the amount of 
available moisture. Therefore...we will mention only low probability of precipitation Friday 
night and Saturday. 


A small warming trend is expected the next few days as low level 
moisture increases. Overall...both high and low temperatures will 
be near or above seasonal normals through the week except for 
slightly cooler than normal temperatures today and Thursday. 




79 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth, Texas 47 39 62 52 68 / 70 5 5 30 30 
Waco, Texas 49 38 66 54 69 / 70 5 5 30 40 
Paris, Texas 43 37 60 43 67 / 100 10 10 20 40 
Denton, Texas 46 33 60 50 69 / 60 5 5 30 30 
McKinney, Texas 43 34 59 48 69 / 90 10 5 20 40 
Dallas, Texas 47 39 60 52 68 / 80 5 5 20 40 
Terrell, Texas 43 39 61 51 67 / 100 10 5 20 40 
Corsicana, Texas 46 41 65 52 68 / 100 10 5 20 50 
Temple, Texas 52 38 72 57 70 / 60 5 5 30 40 
Mineral Wells, Texas 55 34 62 50 69 / 50 5 5 40 30 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 am CST this morning for 
txz091>095-102>104-117. 




&& 


$$ 


82/79