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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 52 °
• Low: 43 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 58 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 76 °
• Low: 50 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas 
357 am CST Monday Feb 13 2012 


Discussion... 
rain/rain showers have developed northwest of southeast Texas in association with a trough 
moving eastward into the plains. Expect low level jet to strengthen overhead 
through the morning and early afternoon hours to around 45kt. Starting to 
see evidence of that on radars to our W/SW. Though scattered rain showers will 
prevail for the next couple hours...expect a more widespread area 
of precipitation to develop and approach our western zones later this 
morning and continue moving eastward across the remainder of southeast Texas 
through the afternoon hours. Instability is lacking for the vast majority 
of the County Warning Area. However...conditional instability will still need to 
be monitored over the southern 1/3 of the County Warning Area in case a warm front 
moves onshore allowing storms become more surface based. If 
so...helicities between 500-900 m2/s2 could be realized allowing 
for rotating storms and the possibility of tornadoes and/or wind 
damage. Models all show 58-62 dewpoints making their way toward 
the I-10 area in the late morning and afternoon. Dewpoints on the rigs 
off the Upper Texas coast are currently running 50-55, but suspect 
the area to watch is the airmass right off the coastal Bend/S Texas 
where they are in the upper 50s to near 60. Winds should become 
more srly and transport them toward the Matagorda Bay area first 
then eastward as the day progresses. Again...it's conditional - a low 
probability but potential higher impact should it actually take 
shape. Main treat should be along/S I-10...between 10 am west and 
4-5 PM east. Rain will come to an end by evening and expect some 
patchy fog to develop with light winds and wet ground. 


Not much change in the remainder of the forecast either. Still expect 
another round of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as another trough 
moves into the plains and associated front moves into southeast Texas. Precipitable waters 
climb to 1.4-1.6" and it's looking like areas near Lake Livingston 
will see the higher rainfall events with this event as they'll be 
closer to the best forcing. Cold front should push off the coast 
Wednesday evening bringing an end to the precipitation. 


Appears the next trough will kick out of the Baja California area late Thursday 
and bring the next rain chance to southeast Texas late Friday or Sat. The 
previous front will likely hang up off the S Texas coast and possibly 
trend back northward ahead of the trough. Some are showing a surface wave 
developing on the boundary...treking east-northeast as the trough nears. Precipitation 
could very well remain offshore but left probability of precipitation in across southern parts 
until confidence improves. 47 


&& 


Marine... 
moderate/strong winds expected to persist today as the gradient re- 
mains tight in response the approach/passage of an upper level dis- 
turbance across north/c Texas. Will likely maintain the scec/Small Craft Advisory flags for 
the bays/coastal waters as is until tonight. A relaxing gradient to 
translate to a more light/moderate onshore flow tonight through Wednesday 
evening. This pattern could lead to the development of sea fog over 
the bays/nearshore waters by late Tuesday. Should it form...this fog is 
likely to linger through late Wednesday night/early Thursday. At that time... 
the passage of the next cold front will lead to moderate/strong north-northeast 
winds along with elevated seas through the end of the week. Another 
storm system by the weekend could produce more messy weather. 41 


&& 


Aviation... 
12z taf package will likely be both tricky/messy given the approach 
and passage of the next upper level disturbance just to our north. 
Latest models/trends would seem to indicate that the best lift will 
be further north of southeast Texas but the inland push of the warm front may 
produce some activity of note late this morning/aftn. At this time will not 
argue too much with the mention of thunderstorms and rain already in the tafs...but a 
few tweaks to the timing may be in order. 41 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
College Station (cll) 56 47 73 61 76 / 90 10 10 30 60 
Houston (iah) 64 51 75 63 76 / 90 20 10 30 60 
Galveston (gls) 64 58 69 63 70 / 90 30 10 20 60 


&& 


Hgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...small craft should exercise caution through this afternoon for 
the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. 


Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the 
following zones: waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship 
Channel 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from Freeport to the 
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters from High Island 
to Freeport 20 to 60 nm...waters from High Island to 
Freeport out 20 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Discussion...30