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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 10:12 PM CST on February 12, 2012

  Through the overnight hours...light rain will continue to move northeast at 25 mph across south central Texas and The Hill Country. New rainfall amounts through 1 am will generally average less than one tenth of an inch...but isolated higher totals near one quarter of an inch are possible. Even though frozen precipitation is not expected overnight...roads are still slippery from the mix of rain and wintery precipitation earlier today. Drivers should be extra cautious since slick patches of roadway are especially difficult to see in the dark.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 58 °
• Low: 45 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 74 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 47 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas 
1036 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Update... 
have let the Winter Weather Advisory expire at 10 PM. All 
temperatures are above freezing and will continue to very slowly 
rise overnight. Wet bulb temperatures will also rise as dewpoints 
rise. Sleet and snow are no longer expected. Any remaining ice 
accumulations will rapidly melt. An upper level trough axis 
extends from the western Permian Basin to The Big Bend and moving 
east at almost 50 miles per hour which is a little faster than models. Some 
lightning strikes have been noted across southwestern Texas into 
Mexico. May see isolated strikes across south central Texas as 
the system moves across the area. Due to the speed of system... 
rains may end earlier on Monday than forecast. The remainder of 
the south central Texas forecast is on track. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 627 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Update... 
have let the Winter Storm Warning expire at 6 PM and replaced by 
a Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM for The Hill Country into 
the Austin area. Have also let the Winter Weather Advisory for 
other portions of south central Texas expire at 6 PM. Temperatures 
continued to slowly warm and were at or above freezing all areas. 
There may be minor accumulations of light sleet or light snow on 
bridges and overpasses in The Hill Country to the Austin area. By 
late evening...atmospheric thermal profiles will warm to all rain. 
Remainder of the forecast is on track. 


Previous discussion... /issued 541 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Aviation... 
a well-established overrunning pattern will continue through the 
overnight hours before gradually clearing out during the late 
morning/early afternoon Monday. This will lead to MVFR ceilings 
prevailing at all taf sites by 03/04z this evening...with 
conditions deteriorating overnight. Chances for frozen or freezing 
precipitation are beginning to decrease as temperatures through 
the boundary layer and at the surface are beginning to warm. 
However...there continues to be a chance for -sn/-pl to briefly 
mix in with the -ra through the next few hours...particularly at 
kdrt where temperatures remain a bit cooler. Ceilings will lower to 
IFR overnight...with limitations to visibilities also expected in a mix 
of -ra/br. Due to the very moist lower levels...there is the 
potential for LIFR ceilings and visibilities in the near-sunrise hours. 
Conditions will improve from west to east during the late 
morning/early afternoon hours as drier west/SW winds arrive. 


Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion... 
second band of sleet/light snow moving northeastward across western Hill 
Country that will affect the central and Northeast Hill country 
through the early evening hours. Expect additional accumulations to 
be light at less than one half inch...and therefore have extended 
the Winter Weather Advisory expire for the northern Edwards Plateau/Hill 
Country and in western Travis and Williamson counties due to 
possible impacts from ice on bridges and overpasses until 10 PM. 
Temperatures continue hover around the freezing mark in The Hill 
Country...but temperatures should slowly warm then hold steady 
overnight with mins very close to temperatures at 6 PM. Otherwise 
widespread rain/showers will move across the County Warning Area later tonight 
with the upper trough...ending from the west Monday afternoon. A 
drier westerly flow to prevail Monday night into Tuesday. 
Increasing low level return flow Tuesday night into Wednesday will 
bring another round of showers/storms with the next upper trough/cold 
front pushing through on Wednesday. Warmer...drier westerly flow 
and weak upper ridging prevailing Thursday into Friday behind the 
cold front. GFS indicated another upper low digging southeastward along the 
Baja California peninsula that will result in return Gulf flow Friday night 
into Saturday morning...with another widespread rain event 
Saturday. However the European model (ecmwf) is a little quicker and drier with the 
low/trough and therefore have knocked down GFS MOS probability of precipitation a category 
for now. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Austin Camp Mabry 39 62 45 75 62 / 80 70 0 0 20 
Austin Bergstrom international Airport 40 62 40 74 61 / 80 70 0 0 20 
New Braunfels Muni Airport 40 63 43 74 61 / 80 60 0 0 20 
Burnet Muni Airport 34 63 43 74 60 / 80 50 0 0 20 
del Rio International Airport 33 66 46 74 58 / 50 10 0 0 10 
Georgetown Muni Airport 38 62 42 73 60 / 80 60 0 0 20 
Hondo Muni Airport 37 65 41 74 61 / 80 30 0 0 20 
San Marcos Muni Airport 39 62 43 74 61 / 80 60 0 0 20 
La Grange - Fayette regional 41 59 45 74 63 / 80 90 - 0 20 
San Antonio International Airport 40 64 45 74 63 / 80 50 0 0 20 
Stinson Muni Airport 41 65 44 75 62 / 80 50 0 0 20 


&& 


Ewx watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mesoscale/aviation...25 
synoptic/grids...04 
public service/data collection...32