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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 56 °
• Low: 29 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 34 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 31 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 31 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 32 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas 
945 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


..dangerous travel conditions overnight in wake of departing snowfall... 


Update... 
updated forecast/products have been sent. Main changes include clearing 
the extreme southwestern Panhandle and far northwestern South Plains 
from the Winter Weather Advisory. Have also trended forecast/hazard 
products toward an end of accumulating wintry precipitation...but have 
highlighted a continued danger from freezing drizzle/fog atop remnant 
snow pack. 


The primary snow shield that resulted in widespread 1-3 inch 
accumulations with localized 4 inch totals today is now exiting 
the extreme southeastern Panhandle...rolling plains toward the 
east. A secondary area of snow/sleet showers associated with the 
previously discussed secondary region of lift that moved in from 
the southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas mountains is skirting the 
southern South Plains at this time. As this renewed forcing/ascent 
overspreads the area...there has been an increase in freezing 
drizzle over much of the central South Plains. This trend should 
continue throughout the coming hours as warm air advection/upglide persists atop 
very cold low level air/snow pack. After midnight...low level 
winds should veer towards more of a downslope component and 
temperatures will likely show at least a modest warming trend. 
The veering wind fields likely will occur first and be most 
pronounced over the extreme southwestern Panhandle/northwestern 
South Plains...thus resulting in a lesser threat of ice glaze in 
drizzle/fog there. Still...with current temperatures in the low 
and middle 20s...the threat of ice glaze atop snow packed roads/ 
surfaces will be most pronounced over the central/southern South 
Plains...rolling plains...and extreme southeastern Panhandle. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 549 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Aviation... 
complex terminal forecasts through tonight/early Monday morning. 
Persistent snowfall should now begin to taper towards more showery 
activity at klbb through 06z. However prospects for light 
accumulations remain and thus the Airport weather warning remains 
valid. Dominant visible should increase at klbb in the short term...but 
additional showers may bring a mixture of snow and sleet. Conditions 
will remain LIFR/IFR at kcds until precipitation begins to wane 
after 06z. Forecast is then complicated /at both terminals/ by 
prospects for freezing fog/low stratus after wintry precipitation 
ends. Confidence in this scenario is low given veering low level 
wind fields...but will maintain the previous forecast for such at 
this time. Expect improvement towards VFR around 15-16z at both 
terminals. 


Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Short term... 
forecast still remains on track from the previous update earlier 
this morning. The upper level trough axis is still well to the 
west of the region nearing the Arizona...New Mexico border. Large 
scale lift from this wave is still all the way back in western New 
Mexico and will continue to move out over the area this evening. 
All snow was still falling this afternoon across the western 
areas. The low level warm air advection was beginning to spread over the area 
and will expect a change to a wintry mix shortly. Areas off The 
Caprock are just now seeing snow beginning to fall with dew point 
depressions between ten and 15 degrees. Snowfall will increase in 
intensity as wet-bulbing occurs off The Caprock. As skies begin 
to clear out early Monday morning...freezing fog may occur given 
the snow covered ground. However...breezy south winds will not be 
favoring fog formation during the overnight hours. Temperatures 
will quickly rebound tomorrow with breezy downsloping winds. Snow 
accumulation on the ground will rapidly melt during the afternoon. 
Jdv 


Long term... 
fairly active pattern will continue through much of the week with 
storm systems moving near or over the region Wednesday...and then 
again sometime Friday into Saturday. System on Wednesday could be 
a potential wind/dust/fire weather event as most models take 
either a trough/closed low north of the area and place the greatest 
pressure/height gradient over the forecast area. Dry air will 
rapidly mix in as westerly winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour develop during 
the afternoon. However...there are still some subtle differences 
in the timing and track of this storm system and will need to be 
watched to see if it may come in a bit slower and be out of phase 
with daytime mixing...potentially limiting how strong wind speeds 
may become. 


Cold front will push across the area Thursday cooling things down 
ahead of the next storm system for the end of the week. 
However...even greater discrepancies exist between the models this 
far out and opted not to make major changes to the forecast at 
this time. 


Jordan 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Friona 25 53 28 62 30 / 30 0 0 0 0 
Tulia 25 55 24 62 34 / 60 0 0 0 10 
Plainview 27 55 26 64 35 / 60 0 0 0 10 
Levelland 26 56 30 65 35 / 60 0 0 0 10 
Lubbock 28 57 29 66 35 / 60 0 0 0 10 
Denver City 27 56 30 66 35 / 70 0 0 0 10 
Brownfield 26 55 30 66 35 / 70 0 0 0 10 
Childress 28 55 29 61 37 / 90 10 0 0 10 
spur 29 56 29 65 37 / 80 0 0 0 10 
Aspermont 30 56 31 67 41 / 80 10 0 0 10 


&& 


Lub watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Monday for the following 
zones: txz024>026-029>044. 


&& 


$$ 


20