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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 43 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 40 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 40 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
958 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Discussion... 
atmosphere still remains relatively dry over most of the County Warning Area this 
evening. However...the leading edge of the greater and deeper 
moisture is just beginning to reach the western zones as of 0345z. 
Leading edge of precipitation is just beginning to move east of the dfw 
metroplex. 00z NAM soundings for around the 09z-10z time frame 
are very similar to the 00z kfwd radiosonde observation. Thus...potential for 
freezing precipitation as far south as the I-20 corridor...including 
kshv...has increased somewhat. However...temperature profiles continue to 
ride the 0 degree isotherm very closely and confidence is not high 
enough to make any drastic updates to precipitation type. Any window for 
sleet along the I-20 corridor looks to be relatively short-lived. 
Overall...will maintain going forecast for now but will continue to 
monitor. An update may be necessary prior to midnight to extend 
possibility for sleet farther south. /09/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR flight categories will prevail at the start of the 13/06 UTC 
terminal forecast package for most of the terminals...the exception 
will be over parts of east and northeast Texas where the returning 
moisture has worked down. Very dry air associated with the recent 
Arctic airmass in the lower levels will start to moisten and allow 
clouds to lower from west to east...and precipitation to develop and 
spread over the four state region. Areas of sleet possibly mixed 
with light rain are expected between 13/06 UTC to 13/09 UTC for 
parts of East Texas along and near Interstate 20 north into 
southeast Oklahoma...and may develop into parts of northwest 
Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. Clouds of 7 to 9 kft will give way 
to ceilings of 4 to 6 kft...followed by MVFR. Most of the terminal 
sites west of a kshv and ktxk will be MVFR/IFR with between 13/09 
UTC to 13/14 UTC. The precipitation will become more widespread over 
the forecast area during the period of 13/14 UTC to 13/18 UTC with 
minor icing over northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas and over 
southeast Oklahoma until temperatures warm during the middle to late 
morning hours. As a warm front lifts northeast across the four state 
region during the afternoon Monday...IFR ceilings in rain and 
isolated thunderstorms with visibility restrictions as well. The 
precipitation will diminish from west to east Monday night with 
IFR/MVFR flight categories into Tuesday morning. Expecting east to 
southeast winds 5 to 7 knots until 13/14 UTC when speeds increase to 
7 to 13 knots. /06/ 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 229 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion... 
winter weather threat continues for tonight across portions of 
extreme northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...and southwest 
Arkansas. After reviewing ongoing model data...not much change in the 
previous thinking regarding timing and impact of the upcoming event. 
Low-level moisture is forecast to surge north ahead of an upper- 
low progressing east of The Four Corners region this afternoon. 
With a cold Arctic airmass at the surface...a mix of freezing 
precipitation is expected to develop shortly before midnight 
across areas north of Interstate 20. Because the atmospheric 
temperature profile for 12z Monday is forecast to follow the 
freezing line from the surface to 700 mb across locations north of 
Texarkana...uncertainty remains regarding the upcoming precipitation 
type. With this sort of profile...a temperature variation of a 
couple of degrees at any level could result in the difference 
between snow... freezing rain...or sleet. After daybreak 
Monday...as temperatures begin to warm...expect freezing 
precipitation to transition to rain throughout the remainder of 
the day. 


The synoptic pattern through the remainder of the forecast period 
remains fairly dynamic as high temperatures rebound to near 70 on 
Tuesday ahead of the next storm system on Wednesday. By Saturday 
evening expect yet another chance of showers and thunderstorms as 
a surface low deepens in the Gulf of Mexico and generates a 
healthy plume of moisture across the region. /05/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 32 46 42 62 49 / 30 100 30 10 20 
mlu 27 47 42 57 43 / 10 100 60 10 10 
deq 27 41 32 57 38 / 50 100 20 10 20 
txk 31 42 36 57 44 / 50 100 30 10 20 
eld 26 43 35 55 40 / 10 100 50 10 20 
tyr 35 46 41 63 52 / 60 100 20 10 20 
ggg 33 48 41 62 50 / 50 100 20 10 20 
lfk 34 52 44 69 53 / 40 100 20 10 20 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following 
zones: arz050-051-059>061-070-071. 


La...none. 
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following 
zones: okz077. 


Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following 
zones: txz096-097. 


&& 


$$ 


09/06