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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 7:21 PM CST on February 12, 2012

  Showers of rain may mix with sleet or freezing as it moves across the Marfa Plateau and Big Bend. An isolated thunderstorm is possible. Motorists are urged to use caution driving.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 56 °
• Low: 29 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 31 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 58 °
• Low: 31 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 58 °
• Low: 29 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 34 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
701 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Update... 
extended Winter Weather Advisory. 


&& 


Discussion... 
precipitation has redeveloped across the west so have extended the 
Winter Weather Advisory for the western counties to expire at the 
same time as the eastern ones... at 06z. Depending on radar trends 
the advisory for the eastern counties may need to be extended 
past 06z. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 430 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion... 


See aviation discussion below. 


Aviation... 


A messy wintry mix of precipitation continues...as an upper trough over 
the 4 corners region approaches the area. Area radars show a lull 
in the precipitation moving into the forecast area...but the 2nd batch is expected 
overnight as the trough axis swings through. This will result in 
MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities all terminals...W/fzra being the main concern 
otherwise. Behind the trough axis...gusty west surface flow will scour 
planetary boundary layer moisture to the east...W/all terminals expected to be VFR by 
18z Monday. 


Previous discussion... /issued 236 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion... 
on water vapor imagery an upper level trough that is currently over 
The Rockies is headed east and will be impacting the area today. At 
the surface there is high pressure centered just west of the 
Mississippi River valley. There is a very unusual set up. There is a 
modified Arctic airmass in place over the central Continental U.S.. since the 
Pacific front that is accompanying the upper level trough is 
actually bringing air that is warmer than what is already in place 
it will act more like a warm front. There is little doubt that there 
will be precipitation considering the moisture being brought into 
the area....bit this scenario has made the precipitation type very 
difficult to forecast. Much of the precipitation across the area 
started out as snow or sleet this morning. Light accumulations of 
ice have formed...mostly from the sleet. However...as the day 
progresses the warm air intrusion will bring the temperature of the 
upper portions of the saturated layer up above negative 10 degree c. 
Using the top down approach this is more indicative of freezing rain 
occurring. Areas west of the Pecos River will warm enough tonight 
after 00z to allow the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at this 
time. Areas east of the Pecos River to include the Permian Basin and 
Lea County will likely still see freezing rain or sleet until around 
midnight. The 850 mb temperature warm significantly tonight. The met 
and mav both show an overnight warming trend...so the low 
temperatures for Sunday will likely be right after midnight. 


Rapid warming will occur Monday. Have trended high temperatures down 
a bit with upper 50s into the 60s still expected during the 
afternoon hours. Tuesday will be much of the same. The next upper 
level low will move across the Continental U.S. Wednesday. This feature may 
create enough lift to get some isolated showers across the eastern 
fringe of the County Warning Area. Mex guidance is showing probability of precipitation around 15 for these 
areas. The next feature of significance is another...somewhat 
stronger upper level low that will migrate through the area at the 
end of the week. The timing of this varies between the GFS and 
European model (ecmwf). The European model (ecmwf) brings it through faster and GFS brings it through 
slower but with greater impacts. There appears to be enough 
instability with this low to keep thunder in the forecast. Have 
trended probability of precipitation up slightly Friday night and Saturday. At this time it 
appears warm enough for the precipitation to be in form of rain. Mex 
guidance is carrying probability of precipitation around 30 for much of the County Warning Area for this 
time frame. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are both showing quantitative precipitation forecast values. 


Aviation... 
moderate to severe icing at around 6000 feet has been reported near 
Hobbs. An Airport weather warning has been issued for maf for onset 
of freezing precipitation...and is out to 06z. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Big Spring Texas 30 55 37 71 / 70 0 0 0 
Carlsbad nm 33 61 37 71 / 50 0 0 0 
Dryden Texas 34 65 44 75 / 40 0 0 0 
Fort Stockton Texas 35 64 43 74 / 60 0 0 0 
Guadalupe Pass Texas 32 56 40 60 / 30 0 0 0 
Hobbs nm 30 53 32 65 / 60 0 0 0 
Marfa Texas 29 55 28 65 / 40 0 0 0 
Midland International Airport Texas 31 57 34 70 / 70 0 0 0 
Odessa Texas 30 57 38 69 / 70 0 0 0 
Wink Texas 33 62 34 72 / 70 0 0 0 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the 
following zones... central Lea County...Eddy County 
plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...northern Lea 
County...southern Lea County. 


Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight 
for the following zones... Andrews...Borden...Crane... 
Davis/Apache Mountains area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines... 
Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...Loving... 
Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves 
County and upper trans Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn 
and Highway 54 corridor...Ward...Winkler. 




&& 


$$