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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 67 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 58 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 59 °
• Mostly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas 
611 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Discussion...after looking at the latest sounding and 18z MOS 
guidance...have decided to increase probability of precipitation tonight as warm air 
advection aloft will allow light rain and/or drizzle to re- develop 
after midnight tonight as the combination of a surface low across 
the Rio Grande Valley and a couple of 500mb vorticity maximums 
provide positive vorticity advection across the area and the right 
rear quadrant of subtropical jet provides enough dynamics aloft 
for some elevated convection to develop tonight. 
&& 


Aviation...satellite and radar images as well as surface 
observations indicate low to middle level clouds with light rain and 
drizzle as well as fog across most of the County Warning Area early this evening. 
Ceilings were near 200ft at khbv to near 4700ft at kspl. 
Visibilities were near 2sm with drizzle at kapy to near 3sm with 
light drizzle/fog at khbv. Expect remaining MVFR conditions to 
deteriorate to IFR conditions tonight as ceilings and/or 
visibilities drop with overrunning conditions producing light rain 
and drizzle with fog across most of the Rio Grande Valley through 
early Monday. Ceilings and visibilities will improve Monday as 
drier air at the surface and aloft increases from west to east 
with low pressure developing across the Texas Panhandle and winds 
aloft veering more the west. 
&& 


Marine...winds remain high along the Lower Texas coast so have 
extended Small Craft Advisory for the Laguna Madre through at least 
midnight. 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 133 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 
short term /tonight through Monday night/...occasional light rain 
will continue under heavily overcast skies as a high pressure 
center drifts southeast over Memphis and into the southeast United 
States this afternoon and evening. The air mass has delivered 
colder temperatures for today and tonight...but as a weak short wave 
trough passes from west to east north of the area...precipitation 
will end during the day Monday and temperatures will rebound...though 
persistent cloud cover may still limit high afternoon temperatures. As 
suggested above...the main forecast challenge was temperatures...and the 
temperatures for Monday and Monday night may require further tweaks. 
Winds will veer to southeast and south on Monday...becoming 
moderate to breezy near the coast under the influence of deepening 
low pressure upstream over the Texas Panhandle. 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/...progressive patterns 
continues for the region through the extended period...the a 
couple rounds of showers through the week. The first round occurs 
starting Wednesday as the next midlevel trough ejects through the 
Central Plains...pushing a weak cold front into Lower Texas. 
Locally...winds aloft will remain from the southwest...continuing 
to pour Pacific moisture into the region...but opposing 
significant southward movement of the front. The front is expected 
to stall just offshore...creating weak overrunning for deep south 
Texas...and a chance for rain Wednesday into Thursday morning. 
High pressure behind the front should bring enough drier air in to 
lower pop chances...but cloud cover likely remains thick into the 
latter half of the week. The next more potent midlevel low briefly 
cuts off over the Baja California peninsula Friday before ejecting through 
Texas Saturday. Deeper midlevel moisture...stronger onshore flow 
at the surface and lifting ahead of the low will increase probability of precipitation during 
the day Saturday. Have raised probability of precipitation Saturday into chance 
category...with good confidence in the -ra/dz scenario again over 
the weekend. Loner range models have begun to wrap up a surface low in 
the northwest Gulf as this midlevel low moves through. This has the 
potential to bring more showery precipitation to the region late Saturday 
into Sunday...and to bring breezier north winds and cooler temperatures. 
Will wait for some more run-to-run consistency before upping probability of precipitation 
any further. 


Marine... 
tonight through Monday night...buoy 42020 reports east winds at 20 
knots gusting to 25 knots and wave heights around nine feet with a 
period of eight seconds early this afternoon. Strong surface high 
pressure building south into the north and west Gulf is causing an 
elevated onshore northeast wind and high seas. Strong winds will 
veer to south by Monday while seas remain high. High pressure will 
fade away to the east over the short term and...though low pressure 
will develop in the Texas Panhandle on Monday...the local pressure 
gradient will relax...winds will decrease...and seas will subside 
through Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions for seven foot 
seas offshore may last until Tuesday morning however. 


Tuesday through Friday...conditions begin to settle a little 
Tuesday into Wednesday as surface gradient eases...allowing winds to 
drop to 10 to 15 knots. Long fetch across the Gulf continues to 
produce seas 4 to 6 feet into Thursday. A weak front moves into 
the northwest Gulf Thursday. How far this front pushes into the 
region is still not definite...but winds behind the front will 
likely reach 20 knots again...pushing seas back up to 7 to 8 feet. 
Thursday into Friday. 
&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Bayview/Port Isabel 59 75 63 76 / 100 30 0 0 
Brownsville 60 77 62 76 / 100 30 0 0 
Harlingen 56 79 59 78 / 100 30 0 0 
McAllen 49 74 60 80 / 100 20 0 0 
Rio Grande City 47 70 59 81 / 100 20 0 0 
South Padre Island 60 71 62 69 / 100 40 0 0 
&& 


Bro watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...high surf advisory until midnight CST tonight for txz251-256-257. 


Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CST tonight for txz251-256- 
257. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until midnight CST tonight for 
gmz130-132-135. 


Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Monday for gmz150-155-170- 
175. 
&& 


$$ 


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61/68/Billings