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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 56 °
• Low: 34 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 40 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 34 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 58 °
• Low: 36 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 40 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas 
1002 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Discussion... 


See 06z aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation... 


WV imagery shows the upper trough entering The Rockies...W/the forecast area 
already scouring from the west...W/kmaf radar showing the last 
batch of precipitation just east of kmaf. Latest NAM suggests that all 
terminals have seen the last precipitation for this event...W/only 
ceilings/visibilities to contend with. Currently...all terminals are under 
IFR/LIFR ceilings except kfst...which should remain VFR for the next 
24 hours. Forecast soundings suggest ceilings/visibilities at 
kcnm...kink...kmaf...and kpeq could drop one more Cat before 
scouring arrives...W/VFR conditions everywhere by 18z Monday. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 941 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Update... 


Have cleared the western counties from the Winter Weather Advisory. 


Discussion... 
most of the precipitation has moved into the Permian Basin and 
lower trans Pecos. Therefore have cleared southeast New Mexico... 
the Davis Mountains... and upper trans Pecos from the Winter Weather Advisory. 
The advisory remains in effect for the east. As ground temperatures 
continue to fall roads will become more icy. 


Previous discussion... /issued 701 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Update... 
extended Winter Weather Advisory. 


Discussion... 
precipitation has redeveloped across the west so have extended the 
Winter Weather Advisory for the western counties to expire at the 
same time as the eastern ones... at 06z. Depending on radar trends 
the advisory for the eastern counties may need to be extended 
past 06z. 


Previous discussion... /issued 430 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion... 


See aviation discussion below. 


Aviation... 


A messy wintry mix of precipitation continues...as an upper trough over 
the 4 corners region approaches the area. Area radars show a lull 
in the precipitation moving into the forecast area...but the 2nd batch is expected 
overnight as the trough axis swings through. This will result in 
MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities all terminals...W/fzra being the main concern 
otherwise. Behind the trough axis...gusty west surface flow will scour 
planetary boundary layer moisture to the east...W/all terminals expected to be VFR by 
18z Monday. 


Previous discussion... /issued 236 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion... 
on water vapor imagery an upper level trough that is currently over 
The Rockies is headed east and will be impacting the area today. At 
the surface there is high pressure centered just west of the 
Mississippi River valley. There is a very unusual set up. There is a 
modified Arctic airmass in place over the central Continental U.S.. since the 
Pacific front that is accompanying the upper level trough is 
actually bringing air that is warmer than what is already in place 
it will act more like a warm front. There is little doubt that there 
will be precipitation considering the moisture being brought into 
the area....bit this scenario has made the precipitation type very 
difficult to forecast. Much of the precipitation across the area 
started out as snow or sleet this morning. Light accumulations of 
ice have formed...mostly from the sleet. However...as the day 
progresses the warm air intrusion will bring the temperature of the 
upper portions of the saturated layer up above negative 10 degree c. 
Using the top down approach this is more indicative of freezing rain 
occurring. Areas west of the Pecos River will warm enough tonight 
after 00z to allow the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at this 
time. Areas east of the Pecos River to include the Permian Basin and 
Lea County will likely still see freezing rain or sleet until around 
midnight. The 850 mb temperature warm significantly tonight. The met 
and mav both show an overnight warming trend...so the low 
temperatures for Sunday will likely be right after midnight. 


Rapid warming will occur Monday. Have trended high temperatures down 
a bit with upper 50s into the 60s still expected during the 
afternoon hours. Tuesday will be much of the same. The next upper 
level low will move across the Continental U.S. Wednesday. This feature may 
create enough lift to get some isolated showers across the eastern 
fringe of the County Warning Area. Mex guidance is showing probability of precipitation around 15 for these 
areas. The next feature of significance is another...somewhat 
stronger upper level low that will migrate through the area at the 
end of the week. The timing of this varies between the GFS and 
European model (ecmwf). The European model (ecmwf) brings it through faster and GFS brings it through 
slower but with greater impacts. There appears to be enough 
instability with this low to keep thunder in the forecast. Have 
trended probability of precipitation up slightly Friday night and Saturday. At this time it 
appears warm enough for the precipitation to be in form of rain. Mex 
guidance is carrying probability of precipitation around 30 for much of the County Warning Area for this 
time frame. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are both showing quantitative precipitation forecast values. 


Aviation... 
moderate to severe icing at around 6000 feet has been reported near 
Hobbs. An Airport weather warning has been issued for maf for onset 
of freezing precipitation...and is out to 06z. 


&& 


Maf watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the 
following zones... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson... 
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland... 
Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Scurry...Upton. 




&& 


$$ 


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