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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 4:30 am CST on February 13, 2012

  The National Weather Service continues to show areas of light rain and sleet moving across parts of East Texas...southern Arkansas...and northern Louisiana. This rain and sleet mix will continue through daybreak. Rainfall amounts will be generally less than a quarter inch. Temperatures across the area are in the mid 30s to near 40...so no ice accumulations are expected.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 43 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 49 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 38 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 40 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
407 am CST Monday Feb 13 2012 


Discussion... 
winter weather event unfolding pretty much on track with previous 
forecasts. Light snow with an occasional report of ice pellets have 
been noted consistently from Clarksville Texas...to Texarkana...to 
hope Arkansas over the last few hours. Further S...a mix of rain 
snow and sleet have been noted generally along the I-20 corridor. 
Accumulations of snow and/or ice are only expected in the Winter 
Weather Advisory area...which is in effect until noon. Main upper 
disturbance is still well to our west...with the largest push of 
precipitation yet to come later today. Model soundings continue to 
indicate a mixed phase of precipitation I-20 and northward through 15z...but a 
transition to an all-liquid phase is expected areawide by late 
morning/early afternoon...as southerly/southwesterly flow warms the column. Models 
have continued to tweak timing...especially as it pertains to the 
exit of the precipitation...but have left the same basic short-term 
package in tact. 


Rain is expected to end by early Tuesday morning...as the upper 
disturbance moves east. Really no push of cold air/high pressure 
behind this disturbance. SW flow aloft is forecast to return by Tuesday 
afternoon...as our next upper trough digs east-southeastward out of Baja California. Southerly 
flow at the surface is also expected to resume...as a surface low develops 
in the Texas Panhandle late Tuesday. As a result...temperatures will be warming 
through Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing 
over East Texas by sunrise on Wednesday...and are forecast to quickly spread 
eastward across the remainder of the region by middle day. Severe threat 
appears marginal...and should be confined to the extreme eastern 
portions of the region...where instability may be just sufficient 
enough. Rain should exit the region by Thursday morning...as high 
pressure and cooler air moves in in the wake of the cold front. 


High pressure is expected to hold through the end of the work 
week. Models diverge some on the details of yet another Baja California low 
for this weekend...but looks like most of any precipitation generated 
will remain S of I-20. /12/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
-sn being observed generally north of i30...however VFR conditions 
still persist across the arklatex early this morning. Wintry precipitation 
should generally stay along and north of i30 this morning...with 
areas of rain to the south. Ceilings will continue to lower during the 
day...as moisture continues to filter down into the lower levels. 
MVFR ceilings should become more common across the area by early 
afternoon...as the surface ridge shifts east allowing a more southerly 
wind to fetch moisture from the Gulf. Lowering visibilities will be 
associated with rain showers...but showers should not lower visibilities 
any more than MVFR for the most part. As rain begins to taper off 
tonight...-dz and fog will come more into play after 00z. Ceilings and 
visibilities will lower further...with IFR/LIFR conditions becoming 
more prevalent. /11/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 47 46 64 49 72 / 100 30 10 20 50 
mlu 48 47 60 45 70 / 100 60 10 20 50 
deq 38 33 56 41 66 / 100 20 10 30 50 
txk 40 39 59 46 66 / 100 30 10 30 50 
eld 43 41 58 43 66 / 100 50 10 20 50 
tyr 46 44 65 55 69 / 100 10 10 30 50 
ggg 46 44 65 52 71 / 100 20 10 30 50 
lfk 54 50 69 56 75 / 100 20 10 30 50 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following 
zones: arz050-051-059>061-070-071. 


La...none. 
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following 
zones: okz077. 


Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following 
zones: txz096-097. 


&& 


$$ 


12/11