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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 58 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 74 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 58 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas 
1025 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Discussion...showers from earlier disturbance continue to move 
east this evening. Additional showers will develop as a coastal 
low moves over the area. Temperatures should begin to warm as a 
stronger onshore flow continues through the overnight hours in 
addition to a warm front moving north over the area. Expecting 
mainly a light rain activity becoming more of a shower activity 
through the first half of the night as isentropic lift 
strengthens. A subtropical jet positioned over the area will add 
to divergence aloft...in addition to decent Omega...leading to 
possible elevated thunderstorm activity for the second half of the 
night across areas generally east of Highway 281. Positive 
vorticity swinging off of the main upper level disturbance across 
North Texas will approach the area adding to lift...but should 
remain generally across areas northeast of the County Warning Area...encroaching 
on portions of Victoria and Calhoun counties. This area has the 
best chances for thunderstorm activity towards daybreak. There is 
decent shear over the aforementioned area which could lead to some 
isolated thunderstorms possibly becoming strong. However... 
timing of the additional lift is keeping just along the 
northeastern periphery of the County Warning Area. Even so...new model runs are 
shifting the coastal low further north which would inhibit 
strengthening of any developing storms. Therefore...think most if 
any stronger storms will generally stay northeast of the County Warning Area... 
however may briefly affect the eastern portions of Victoria and 
Calhoun counties around daybreak. With that being said...generally 
no changes to the forecast package with the exception of adding 
patchy fog to the western portions of the County Warning Area. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 552 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Discussion...updated aviation discussion for 00z taf cycle. 


Aviation...ceilings will become IFR at all terminals by middle to late 
evening with continuing light rain creating intermittent MVFR 
visibilities. Winds over the eastern terminals will veer gradually 
through the period with conditions improving by Monday afternoon. 


Previous discussion... /issued 313 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012/ 


Short term (tonight through Monday night)...temperatures have 
warmed into the lower 50s along the coast...yet remain in the 40s 
inland due to overcast skies. In addition...occasional light rain 
continues across the region as a weak upper level disturbance moves 
across and decent isentropic lift persist. As surface high 
pressure shifts further away from south Texas...southeast winds 
return and will advect higher levels of moisture into the region. 
Thus...temperatures overnight will likely be on the increase into 
Monday morning. Overnight...the main middle/upper level trough will 
sweep across the state and aid in development of showers. Forecast 
soundings would support a few embedded thunderstorms in this 
activity after midnight across the east where the best instability 
remains. Precipitation is expected to end from west to east Monday 
afternoon as the trough exits the region...with clearing skies to 
follow. This will allow for warmer temperatures tomorrow 
afternoon. Moist ground conditions and light winds tomorrow night 
could lead to fog development. 


Long term (tuesday through sunday)...fog to contend with to start 
the day Tuesday morning...and it may become dense in some areas 
given the light winds and dry air aloft. Tuesday will be much warmer 
with highs rebounding into the middle and upper 70s. A return flow 
quickly sets up Tuesday in response to shortwave trough digging into 
The Four Corners region. Clouds will increase across the coastal 
Bend and brush country during the afternoon...and become mostly 
cloudy across the entire County Warning Area by evening. Could see the possibility 
of some sprinkles or isolated showers developing overnight into 
Wednesday morning. The shortwave moves east into the Southern Plains 
on Wednesday and corresponding surface front moves into Texas. 
Appears the will be sufficient forcing from the shortwave and jet 
streak to the north...as well as moisture in place...for isolated to 
scattered showers to develop Wednesday over the nortehast County Warning Area. Could 
be some dry slotting out west across the brush country and Rio 
Grande plains that limits convection. Warm conditions out ahead of 
the front Wednesday with highs into the upper 70s to even lower 80s. 
The front moves through the County Warning Area late Wednesday night...with drier 
and slightly cooler air for Thursday. 


Beyond Thursday forecast confidence decreases considerably as models 
have had a hard time with handling of another upper level low that 
digs into northern Baja California California Thursday and when it opens and 
moves across south Texas. The 12z European model (ecmwf) is faster and shows a wetter 
Friday and Friday night solution...and dry Saturday. The 12z GFS is 
about 24 hours slower...showing a wet Saturday. The Canadian keep 
the system open and progressive. Confidence is increasing that the 
system will come across south Texas and provide a chance for 
precipitation...its just a matter of when. For now will stick with 
the Friday night and Saturday time frame from previous forecast... 
but have increased the probability of precipitation slightly into the chance category. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Corpus Christi 55 71 56 76 66 / 90 60 0 10 20 
Victoria 47 66 49 75 64 / 80 90 10 0 20 
Laredo 48 69 54 78 64 / 60 20 0 0 10 
Alice 52 69 53 77 67 / 90 50 0 10 20 
Rockport 54 69 57 72 64 / 80 80 10 10 20 
Cotulla 45 67 48 76 64 / 60 30 0 0 10 
Kingsville 54 70 54 77 67 / 90 50 0 10 20 
Navy corpus 56 71 59 74 64 / 90 70 0 10 20 


&& 


Crp watches/warnings/advisories... 
Texas...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Monday for the following 
zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 
20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship 
Channel out 20 nm...waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$ 


Cb/85...update