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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 45 °
• Low: 40 °
• Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 38 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 40 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
229 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Discussion... 
winter weather threat continues for tonight across portions of 
extreme northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...and southwest 
Arkansas. After reviewing ongoing model data...not much change in the 
previous thinking regarding timing and impact of the upcoming event. 
Low-level moisture is forecast to surge north ahead of an upper- 
low progressing east of The Four Corners region this afternoon. 
With a cold Arctic airmass at the surface...a mix of freezing 
precipitation is expected to develop shortly before midnight 
across areas north of Interstate 20. Because the atmospheric 
temperature profile for 12z Monday is forecast to follow the 
freezing line from the surface to 700 mb across locations north of 
Texarkana...uncertainty remains regarding the upcoming precipitation 
type. With this sort of profile...a temperature variation of a 
couple of degrees at any level could result in the difference 
between snow... freezing rain...or sleet. After daybreak 
Monday...as temperatures begin to warm...expect freezing 
precipitation to transition to rain throughout the remainder of 
the day. 


The synoptic pattern through the remainder of the forecast period 
remains fairly dynamic as high temperatures rebound to near 70 ontuesday 
ahead of the next storm system on Wednesday. By Saturday evening 
expect yet another chance of showers and thunderstorms as a 
surface low deepens in the Gulf of Mexico and generates a healthy 
plume of moisture across the region. /05/ 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions will continue through much of the taf 
period...although an extensive area of 10-15kft ceilings are now 
beginning to move into East Texas this afternoon...and will quickly spread 
into SW Arkansas/north la this evening. A gradual lowering in ceilings is expected 
by middle evening from the west...with areas of ice pellets possibly mixed with -ra 
developing between 03-06z over NE Texas generally along/north of I-20/southeast 
OK...which will spread NE into SW Arkansas/possible extreme northwest la 
/including shv/ between 06-12z. The precipitation will become more 
widespread over southeast OK/ecntrl Texas between 06-12z as well...with 
periods of -fzra/ip/-sn affecting the txk terminal as well as southeast 
OK/much of SW Arkansas through at least 14z. Thus...some minor ice 
accumulations will be possible through middle morning for these 
areas...before surface temperatures rise above freezing and the wintry mix 
changes over to liquid. The wintry mix should exit the region by 
18z...although widespread rain showers and possibly a few embedded thunder 
will continue to spread east across the region. This will result in 
ceilings lowering to MVFR across East Texas/southeast OK/portions of SW Arkansas between 
15-18z...as well as reduced visibilities...which will eventually develop 
eastward into scntrl Arkansas/north la Monday afternoon. The precipitation will 
diminish from west to east Monday afternoon...with IFR/MVFR ceilings 
persisting through at least Tuesday morning. East-southeast winds 5-10kts can 
be expected through the taf period...although diminish to 5kts or 
less after 00z over scntrl Arkansas/north central la. /15/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 32 46 42 62 49 / 30 100 30 10 20 
mlu 27 47 42 57 43 / 10 100 60 10 10 
deq 27 41 32 57 38 / 50 100 20 10 20 
txk 31 42 36 57 44 / 50 100 30 10 20 
eld 26 43 35 55 40 / 10 100 50 10 20 
tyr 35 46 41 63 52 / 60 100 20 10 20 
ggg 33 48 41 62 50 / 50 100 20 10 20 
lfk 34 52 44 69 53 / 40 100 20 10 20 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday 
for the following zones: arz050-051-059>061-070-071. 


La...none. 
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday 
for the following zones: okz077. 


Texas...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday 
for the following zones: txz096-097. 


&& 


$$ 


05/15