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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 30 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 37 °
• Chance Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 36 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 34 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah 
311 am MDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis...a cold front will gradually cross southern Utah today 
leaving a much cooler airmass in its wake. A fairly moist Pacific 
storm is expected to cross the Great Basin late Friday into 
Saturday...with a drying trend expected for the latter half of the 
Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Discussion...a progressive shortwave trough is crossing the 
northern rockies/northern Great Basin region early this 
morning. This wave and attendant middle level cold advection is 
helping to push surface cold front...which remained relatively 
stalled across central Utah for a good portion of 
Tuesday...southward into southern Utah. This boundary is expected to 
continue south today before eventually stalling south of the Arizona 
border. Large scale ascent associated with this wave is also 
helping to generate a few showers across northern Utah...however 
moisture remains quite limited...and as such only plan to include 
a mention of scattered showers across the north. 


As this wave exits the region tonight...a more vigorous trough is 
forecast to dig out of the Gulf of Alaska along the Pacific coast 
Thursday into Friday...before moving east across the Great Basin 
late Friday into Saturday. 00z models have trended a little 
further west with this low...and now lift frontal boundary 
northward across the area Thursday night putting much of the 
forecast area within the warm sector Friday. This would greatly 
limit the chance for precipitation across the area through Friday 
night...but more importantly result in very strong winds during 
the day as 700mb flow looks to peak in excess of 50 kts Friday 
afternoon. For now will highlight wind potential in severe weather potential statement...however 
if models hold onto this westward shift will likely need wind 
headlines for most western/southern valleys. 


With a more western trajectory with the position of the upper 
trough best chance for precipitation looks to come along north- 
south oriented cold front which looks to cross the area late 
Friday night into Saturday. Best forcing associated with ejecting 
upper wave now looks displaced north and west of the forecast 
area. Have trended forecast in this direction...although 
confidence is not yet high as models have wavered recently from 
run to run with respect to how far east/west this upper low digs. 


Once upper low lifts out of the region later Saturday a generally 
dry and mild westerly flow looks to take hold for the latter half 
of the Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Aviation...northerly winds will persist at the slc terminal through 
at least 03z Thursday. Ceilings will continue to lower this morning 
as showers remain in the area...with a 30 percent chance of ceilings 
below 7000ft between 10z and 16z. 


&& 


Fire weather...a cold front is moving through the state early this 
morning...and is expected to stall across southern Utah late this 
morning. Behind this front...conditions will be significantly cooler 
and more moist than the past couple days...leading to decreased fire 
weather concern...although winds will still be gusty in some 
locations. Ahead of this cold front...that is in far southern and 
eastern Utah...conditions will remain dry and windy...with critical 
fire weather likely in those areas. A red flag warning is in effect 
for today for those far southern and eastern zones. 


Dry conditions and southerly winds will increase again on Thursday 
in far southern and eastern Utah...and a Fire Weather Watch remains 
in effect for that area. In addition...have extended this watch into 
Friday...as it looks like winds will increase significantly Friday 
ahead of the next storm system. There is a chance that these 
headlines for Friday will have to be extended into much of southern 
Utah. While relative humidities may be near or slightly above 15 
percent in some locations Friday afternoon...winds could be very 
strong. Models continue to be fairly inconsistent with this 
storm...so hopefully more confidence can be gleamed soon as this 
potentially hazardous event develops. 


As this storm finally swings through the area...there is still a 
chance for wetting rains across northern Utah late Friday through 
Saturday. Generally lighter winds should return for Sunday and 
Monday. 


&& 




Slc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Utah...red flag warning until 4 am MDT early this morning below 6500 
feet for utz489-494. 


Red flag warning from 9 am this morning to 10 PM MDT this 
evening below 6500 feet for utz489-494. 


Red flag warning from 9 am this morning to 10 PM MDT this 
evening for utz498. 


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday 
evening for utz498. 


Hard freeze watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for 
utz006. 


Red flag warning until 4 am MDT early this morning for 
utz497-498. 


Wyoming...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Seaman/schoening 


For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service visit... 
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case) 


For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion 
visit... 
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)