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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
1206 PM EDT Wednesday may 23 2012 


Synopsis... 
low pressure and unsettled conditions will persist across the area 
through Thursday. High pressure builds into the area Friday 
through Sunday...bringing warm and mainly dry conditions for the 
Memorial Day weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
upper level low seen on satellite over the Carolinas will move northeast 
through the area today producing another active day weatherwise. 
Showers and thunderstorms will begin over next few hours due to 
lift and cold air aloft associated with the upper low and the weak 
front just to the west. Have likely probability of precipitation over much of the forecast area and 
chance probability of precipitation over the lower Eastern Shore. 


Slight risk for severe weather covers Hampton Roads south through NE NC. 
Heavy rainfall will be the biggest threat from the thunderstorms. 
Local flooding will be possible...mainly in the Piedmont counties. 
Isolated thunderstorms may produce severe winds and hail... similar to 
what occurred Tuesday evening. 


Did a mix of met and mav and have high temperatures generally from 
80 to 85 with middle to upper 70s on the lower Eastern Shore. Warmest 
readings are forecast in northeast North Carolina. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/... 
unstable air will remain over the area into Thursday. Thunderstorms 
should end by midnight Wednesday night, have 40-50 percent probability of precipitation 
until midnight and 30 percent in most areas after midnight. Some 
stratus and fog will be possible Thursday morning but not as 
widespread as it was this morning. Low temperatures will be 
similar to this morning...generally in the low to middle 60s. 


On Thursday...scattered thunderstorms can be expected as 500 mb temperatures 
remain around -12c. Have 40 percent probability of precipitation over most of the area 
with some areas of 50 percent in the Piedmont and 30 percent near 
the southern Virginia and northeast NC coast. 


Upper level high begins to build in with earnest by Friday. 
Temperatures at 500 mb warm to around -10c. Have slight chance probability of precipitation 
begin early Friday morning and these will remain during the day 
Friday. Therefore...only isolated thunderstorms are expected. High are 
expected to be in the middle to upper 80s...80 to 85 on the lower Eastern 
Shore and middle to upper 70s near the immediate coast. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/... 
going with a combination of the 12z GFS/European model (ecmwf) for the extended 
period. Hi pressure ridge aloft will build over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys Friday night 
through sun...then ewrd across the area and off the middle Atlantic CST Monday through 
Tuesday. Will maintain generally a dry forecast through Monday night...but will have 
to watch out for mesoscale convective system activity coming over the top of the ridge from Sat 
afternoon into Monday. Othrwise...a surface trough or cold front approaching from the 
west-northwest by late Tuesday could trigger isolated or scattered precipitation Tuesday aftn/ngt. Very 
warm temperatures expected across the region through the period. Min temperatures will 
range from the middle 60s to near 70...while maximum temperatures will mainly range 
from the middle 80s to lower 90s. 


&& 


Aviation /16z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
after scattered showers and thunderstorms...some with heavy rain and 
hail...moved across areas mostly to the west of i95 earlier this 
morning...left with mainly VFR conditions at taf sites as of 07z, 
with the exception of IFR/LIFR conditions ivof ksby. As with last 
night at this time, challenge for the balance of the overnight 
will be timing the development of patchy dense fog and stratus 
ceilings. Expect LIFR/IFR conditions to continue at ksby...with IFR 
ceilings likely to develop between 08-10z at remaining terminals. 
Visibilities will recover quickly, but again expect low clouds to persist 
through middle-lt morning hrs, with conditions to generally improve 
to VFR by 15-16z over the region. Instability will again bring 
some scattered showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday afternoon/evening, again with 
the best chance near/around kric. Have accordingly gone with vicinity 
thunder at kric/kecg where forecast confidence is highest. 


A slow moving upper system will result in continued unsettled 
weather Wednesday night into Thursday...with the potential for flight 
restrictions in patchy fog once again Thursday morning and in scattered 
convection by afternoon. Clearing finally builds in from the west for 
Friday and into the upcoming Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Marine... 
latest surface analysis/observation reflect continued light winds mainly out 
of the S-southeast this morning. Continued S-southeast flow today at or below 15 knots...with 
this general S-southeast flow to persist through much of the period as surface 
hi pressure develops tonight and becomes anchored just off the southeast CST Thursday 
through the Holiday weekend. Waves today generally 1 to 2 feet...seas 
2 to 4 ft, highest out towards 20 nm in mainly southeast swell ~10 seconds. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lsa 
near term...mas/lsa 
short term...lsa 
long term...ajz 
aviation...mam 
marine...mam