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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 75 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 75 °
• Rain Showers

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 77 °
• Rain Showers

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 75 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 75 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service San Juan PR 
1135 am AST Wednesday may 23 2012 


Update...patches of low level moisture will continue to move 
across the local area through the next few hours. This moisture 
will combine once again with diurnal and local effects to produce 
showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and early 
afternoon hours. Under the prevailing southeasterly wind flow... 
fast moving showers can be expected across the northern slopes of 
Puerto Rico...from the metropolitan area westward to Aguada and Aguadilla. 
Due to already saturated soils...prolonged periods of moderate to 
heavy rainfall will likely result in rapid rises in small streams 
and creeks as well as increase the potential for mudslides in 
areas of steep terrain. A generally fair weather pattern will 
prevail tomorrow through at least Saturday as a drier and more 
stable air mass dominates the forecast area. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all taf 
sites. However...brief MVFR conditions will remain possible in and 
around tjbq/tjsj and tjmz in passing showers and thunderstorms. 
Low level winds are from the east southeast at 15 to 25 knots. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 503 am AST Wednesday may 23 2012/ 


Synopsis...a middle to upper level high pressure ridge will continue 
to strengthens across the northeast Caribbean for the next few days. 
At the same time...a surface high pressure across the central 
Atlantic will maintain a moderate to fresh east southeast trade wind 
flow across the region for the next several days. 


Discussion...latest satellite and radar images this morning depicted a 
surge of moisture moving westward across the northeast Caribbean. 
This feature is expected to produce isolated to scattered passing 
showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands...Vieques...Culebra and the 
eastern sections of Puerto Rico during the rest of the morning 
hours. The combination of this moisture with diurnal heating...sea 
breeze convergence and orographic effect will induce the development 
of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across western... 
interior and northwest Puerto Rico this afternoon. However a 
strengthening middle to upper level ridge across the region will inhibit 
the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the 
region. After the passage of this surge of moisture...a generally 
dry weather pattern is expected to encompass the region from the 
southeast. The GFS model guidance suggests that this dry trend will 
continue until at least the upcoming weekend. In fact...precipitable water values 
will continue to steadily decrease from near 2.O inches for today to 
near 1.0 inches for the next several days. Meanwhile...a surface 
high pressure across the north central Atlantic is expected to 
maintain a moderate to fresh trade wind flow across the region and 
warmer than normal temperatures across the northern 
municipalities. 


Aviation...VFR conds with a scattered passing showers are expected across 
the islands the rest of the morning. Then...afternoon convection 
will develop across the interior and north sections of PR until 
23/21z. This may result in brief periods of MVFR conds in and around 
tjbq and possibly tjsj. Low level winds will be from the southeast at 10 
to 20 kts...with higher gusts near shra/tsra. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
sju 86 76 88 77 / 40 10 10 20 
stt 88 78 89 80 / 40 10 10 10 


&& 


Sju watches/warnings/advisories... 
PR...none. 
Vi...none. 
Coastal waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


23/12